Week 3 2025 · September 13, 2025
Wisconsin at Alabama, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?
Alabama beat Wisconsin 38–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Alabama wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Alabama was an 87% favorite.
Final
 Wisconsin Badgers | 14 |
|---|---|
 Alabama Crimson Tide | 38 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +4 Alabama about even · −4 Wisconsin
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Wisconsin wins 0, Alabama wins 10.
- 1 WIS 35 ALA 38
- 2 WIS 16 ALA 24
- 3 WIS 20 ALA 31
- 4 WIS 13 ALA 28
- 5 WIS 10 ALA 28
- 6 WIS 7 ALA 28
- 7 WIS 3 ALA 28
- 8 WIS 3 ALA 31
- 9 WIS 17 ALA 49
- 10 WIS 7 ALA 45
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Wisconsin wins 4% of them, Alabama 96%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Alabama by 24.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Wisconsin by 17+ | 0.2% |
| Wisconsin by 9–16 | 0.6% |
| Wisconsin by 1–8 | 3.4% |
| Level after regulation | 0.5% |
| Alabama by 1–8 | 8.6% |
| Alabama by 9–16 | 17.3% |
| Alabama by 17+ | 69.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Wisconsin 6 for 65 yards, Alabama 6 for 57 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:00 | Pass Interference on Wisconsin, 15 yards | +3% ALA +3.0 pts |
| Q1 10:42 | False Start on Alabama, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% WIS +0.7 pts |
| Q2 12:25 | Roughing the Kicker on Wisconsin, 15 yards | +1% ALA +1.6 pts |
| Q2 9:50 | Illegal Procedure on Alabama, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WIS +0.7 pts |
| Q2 7:57 | Personal Foul on Wisconsin, 15 yards | +1% ALA +1.8 pts |
| Q2 3:00 | Holding on Wisconsin, 10 yards | 0% ALA +0.5 pts |
| Q3 14:45 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Alabama, 15 yards | 0% WIS +1.1 pts |
| Q3 14:32 | Personal Foul on Alabama, 22 yards | 0% WIS +1.4 pts |
| Q3 8:45 | Illegal Procedure on Wisconsin, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ALA +1.2 pts |
| Q3 0:01 | Offside on Wisconsin, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ALA +0.6 pts |
| Q4 9:34 | False Start on Alabama, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WIS +0.5 pts |
| Q4 4:06 | Illegal Formation on Alabama, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | 0% WIS +2.8 pts |
When it happened
Alabama’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:00 | Pass Interference on Wisconsin, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +3% ALA | ALA: Turnover on downs |
| 2 | Q1 9:01 | Alabama was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 68% expected | +4% WIS | ALA: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 7:30 | Alabama converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +2% ALA | ALA: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 2:55 | Alabama was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +1% WIS | ALA: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 2:24 | Alabama converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +1% ALA | ALA: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q1 1:00 | Wisconsin converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +2% WIS | WIS: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 12:25 | Roughing the Kicker on Wisconsin, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +1% ALA | ALA: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 10:30 | Wisconsin converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +1% WIS | WIS: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Wisconsin 0% · Alabama 100%
- Final margin
- Alabama by 24
- Luck in points
- 9.3 for Wisconsin
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Alabama by 33.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Wisconsin 4% · Alabama 96% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · 
Wisconsin · 
Alabama
More from Week 3 2025
- Georgia at Tennessee UGA 44–41 · replay 20% for the winner
- Florida at LSU LSU 20–10 · replay 30% for the winner
- Texas A&M at Notre Dame TA&M 41–40 · replay 37% for the winner
- Arkansas at Ole Miss MISS 41–35 · replay 37% for the winner
- Vanderbilt at South Carolina VAN 31–7 · replay 67% for the winner
- Minnesota at California CAL 27–14 · replay 72% for the winner
- USC at Purdue USC 33–17 · replay 74% for the winner
- New Mexico at UCLA UNM 35–10 · replay 85% for the winner
- UTEP at Texas TEX 27–10 · replay 89% for the winner
- Eastern Michigan at Kentucky UK 48–23 · replay 90% for the winner
- South Alabama at Auburn AUB 31–15 · replay 91% for the winner
- Youngstown State at Michigan State MSU 41–24 · replay 96% for the winner