Week 3 2025 · September 13, 2025
South Alabama at Auburn, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?
Auburn beat South Alabama 31–15, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Auburn wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Auburn was a 96% favorite.
Final
 South Alabama Jaguars | 15 |
|---|---|
 Auburn Tigers | 31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +9 Auburn about even · −9 South Alabama
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. South Alabama wins 1, Auburn wins 9.
- 1 USA 13 AUB 7
- 2 USA 7 AUB 10
- 3 USA 20 AUB 27
- 4 USA 17 AUB 26
- 5 USA 17 AUB 28
- 6 USA 7 AUB 21
- 7 USA 17 AUB 34
- 8 USA 7 AUB 28
- 9 USA 10 AUB 34
- 10 USA 0 AUB 31
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
South Alabama wins 9% of them, Auburn 91%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Auburn by 16.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| South Alabama by 17+ | 0.5% |
| South Alabama by 9–16 | 1.9% |
| South Alabama by 1–8 | 5.9% |
| Level after regulation | 3.7% |
| Auburn by 1–8 | 19.4% |
| Auburn by 9–16 | 24.6% |
| Auburn by 17+ | 44.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- H. DiBoyan, 29 yds made · 88% expected
- A. McPherson, 34 yds made · 85% expected
- Extra point missed · 98% expected
- Extra point missed · 98% expected
Penalties: South Alabama 4 for 24 yards, Auburn 4 for 43 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 5:51 | Personal Foul on Auburn, 13 yards | 0% USA +0.7 pts |
| Q1 0:49 | Offside on Auburn, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% USA +1.0 pts |
| Q2 14:08 | Holding on South Alabama, 9 yards | 0% AUB +0.6 pts |
| Q2 0:00 | Illegal Formation on South Alabama, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% AUB +0.2 pts |
| Q3 10:47 | False Start on South Alabama, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% AUB +0.7 pts |
| Q4 12:44 | Holding on Auburn, 10 yards | 0% USA +2.5 pts |
| Q4 12:20 | False Start on South Alabama, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% AUB +0.5 pts |
| Q4 7:49 | Pass Interference on Auburn, 15 yards | 0% USA +3.5 pts |
When it happened
Auburn’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 10:20 | Auburn was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +1% USA | AUB: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 9:34 | Auburn converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +1% AUB | AUB: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 6:24 | South Alabama converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +1% USA | USA: Field goal |
| 4 | Q1 5:51 | Personal Foul on Auburn, 13 yardsJudgment calls | +0% USA | USA: Field goal |
| 5 | Q1 2:53 | Auburn was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +1% USA | AUB: Punt |
| 6 | Q1 0:49 | Offside on Auburn, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% USA | USA: End of half |
| 7 | Q4 14:22 | South Alabama converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +0% USA | USA: Turnover |
| 8 | Q4 12:44 | Holding on Auburn, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +0% USA | USA: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
South Alabama 3% · Auburn 97%
- Final margin
- Auburn by 16
- Luck in points
- 4.2 for Auburn
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Auburn by 11.8
- Replay with same day's form
- South Alabama 9% · Auburn 91% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · 
South Alabama · 
Auburn
More from Week 3 2025
- Georgia at Tennessee UGA 44–41 · replay 20% for the winner
- Florida at LSU LSU 20–10 · replay 30% for the winner
- Texas A&M at Notre Dame TA&M 41–40 · replay 37% for the winner
- Arkansas at Ole Miss MISS 41–35 · replay 37% for the winner
- Jacksonville State at Georgia Southern GASO 41–34 · replay 56% for the winner
- Vanderbilt at South Carolina VAN 31–7 · replay 67% for the winner
- Iowa State at Arkansas State ISU 24–16 · replay 82% for the winner
- Old Dominion at Virginia Tech ODU 45–26 · replay 88% for the winner
- UTEP at Texas TEX 27–10 · replay 89% for the winner
- Eastern Michigan at Kentucky UK 48–23 · replay 90% for the winner
- App State at Southern Miss USM 38–22 · replay 92% for the winner
- Wisconsin at Alabama ALA 38–14 · replay 96% for the winner