Week 3 2025 · September 13, 2025
Iowa State at Arkansas State, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?
Iowa State beat Arkansas State 24–16, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Iowa State wins 8 of 10.
Before kickoff Iowa State was a 91% favorite.
Final
 Iowa State Cyclones | 24 |
|---|---|
 Arkansas State Red Wolves | 16 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +18 Iowa State about even · −18 Arkansas State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Iowa State wins 8, Arkansas State wins 2.
- 1 ISU 34 ARST 0
- 2 ISU 34 ARST 7
- 3 ISU 38 ARST 16
- 4 ISU 27 ARST 9
- 5 ISU 19 ARST 5
- 6 ISU 26 ARST 15
- 7 ISU 27 ARST 19
- 8 ISU 7 ARST 5
- 9 ISU 17 ARST 21
- 10 ISU 13 ARST 26
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Iowa State wins 82% of them, Arkansas State 18%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Iowa State by 8.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Iowa State by 17+ | 39.2% |
| Iowa State by 9–16 | 21.9% |
| Iowa State by 1–8 | 20.3% |
| Level after regulation | 1.8% |
| Arkansas State by 1–8 | 10.5% |
| Arkansas State by 9–16 | 4.3% |
| Arkansas State by 17+ | 1.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- K. Konrardy, 41 yds made · 72% expected
- C. Van Andel, 45 yds made · 63% expected
- K. Konrardy, 48 yds missed · 59% expected
- C. Van Andel, 36 yds made · 80% expected
- C. Van Andel, 40 yds made · 74% expected
- Extra point missed · 98% expected
Penalties: Iowa State 3 for 16 yards, Arkansas State 10 for 97 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:51 | Holding on Iowa State, 0 yards | 0% ARST 0.0 pts |
| Q1 13:21 | False Start on Arkansas State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ISU +0.7 pts |
| Q1 2:33 | Holding on Arkansas State, 17 yards | 0% ISU +1.0 pts |
| Q3 13:24 | Holding on Arkansas State, 10 yards | 0% ISU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 12:37 | Holding on Arkansas State, 10 yards | 0% ISU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 3:19 | Illegal Formation on Arkansas State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ISU +0.3 pts |
| Q3 2:38 | Holding on Arkansas State, 10 yards | +1% ISU +0.6 pts |
| Q4 13:53 | Intentional Grounding on Arkansas State, 0 yards | 0% ISU 0.0 pts |
| Q4 12:23 | Pass Interference on Arkansas State, 15 yards | +2% ISU +0.9 pts |
| Q4 12:19 | Holding on Arkansas State, 10 yards | +1% ISU +0.6 pts |
| Q4 8:46 | Holding on Iowa State, 10 yards | 0% ARST +0.6 pts |
| Q4 8:42 | Pass Interference on Arkansas State, 15 yards | +1% ISU +1.6 pts |
| Q4 7:04 | Holding on Iowa State, 6 yards | +1% ARST +0.4 pts |
When it happened
Arkansas State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 7:55 | Arkansas State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +2% ARST | ARST: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 8:52 | K. Konrardy missed a 48-yard field goalKicks · 59% expected for him, 7 of 12 from 45+ before | +2% ARST | ISU: End of half |
| 3 | Q2 2:38 | Arkansas State fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +2% ARST | ARST: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 1:12 | Arkansas State converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +3% ARST | ARST: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 12:23 | Arkansas State was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 54% expectedPass Interference on Arkansas State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +5% ISU | ARST: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 11:53 | C. Van Andel made a 40-yard field goalKicks · 74% expected for him | +2% ISU | ARST: Turnover |
| 7 | Q4 4:02 | Arkansas State was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +5% ISU | ARST: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 3:52 | Arkansas State was stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +4% ISU | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Iowa State 99% · Arkansas State 1%
- Final margin
- Iowa State by 8
- Luck in points
- 7.7 for Arkansas State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Iowa State by 15.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Iowa State 82% · Arkansas State 18% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · 
Iowa State · 
Arkansas State
More from Week 3 2025
- Jacksonville State at Georgia Southern GASO 41–34 · replay 56% for the winner
- Colorado at Houston HOU 36–20 · replay 74% for the winner
- Kansas State at Arizona ARIZ 23–17 · replay 85% for the winner
- Old Dominion at Virginia Tech ODU 45–26 · replay 88% for the winner
- South Alabama at Auburn AUB 31–15 · replay 91% for the winner
- App State at Southern Miss USM 38–22 · replay 92% for the winner
- Pittsburgh at West Virginia WVU 31–24 · replay 92% for the winner
- Abilene Christian at TCU TCU 42–21 · replay 93% for the winner
- East Carolina at Coastal Carolina ECU 38–0 · replay 96% for the winner
- Murray State at Georgia State GAST 37–21 · replay 98% for the winner
- Texas State at Arizona State ASU 34–15 · replay 98% for the winner
- Utah at Wyoming UTAH 31–6 · replay 98% for the winner