luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 3 2025 · September 12, 2025

Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 33 of the 40 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.

Kansas State at Arizona, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?

Arizona beat Kansas State 23–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Arizona wins 9 of 10. Kansas State had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 25 points of win probability to Kansas State.

An off day for Kansas State: its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Arizona it would win 47% of the time; with this day’s form, 15%. The numbers

Before kickoff Kansas State was a 54% favorite.

Final

Kansas State Wildcats 17
Arizona Wildcats 23

September 12, 2025 · Arizona Stadium · Closing line: Kansas State −1.5

Luck index +15 Arizona about even · −15 Kansas State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Kansas State wins 1, Arizona wins 9.

  1. 1 KSU 7 ARIZ 0
  2. 2 KSU 14 ARIZ 16
  3. 3 KSU 17 ARIZ 21
  4. 4 KSU 16 ARIZ 24
  5. 5 KSU 3 ARIZ 14
  6. 6 KSU 10 ARIZ 24
  7. 7 KSU 3 ARIZ 21
  8. 8 KSU 7 ARIZ 28
  9. 9 KSU 7 ARIZ 31
  10. 10 KSU 0 ARIZ 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for Kansas State

Its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Arizona it would win 47% of the time; with this day’s form, 15%.

33 points apart for Kansas State: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Kansas State offenseEPA per play gained −0.28 +0.13 worse by 0.42
Kansas State defenseEPA per play allowed +0.10 +0.06 worse by 0.05
Arizona offenseEPA per play gained +0.10 +0.06 better by 0.05
Arizona defenseEPA per play allowed −0.28 +0.09 better by 0.37

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Kansas State wins 15% of them, Arizona 85%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Arizona by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Kansas State by 17+1.5%
Kansas State by 9–163.8%
Kansas State by 1–88.6%
Level after regulation1.9%
Arizona by 1–821.0%
Arizona by 9–1620.4%
Arizona by 17+42.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.3 points to Arizona: the final margin was Arizona by 6, without the luck Arizona by 4.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • M. Salgado-Medina, 47 yds missed · 60% expected
  • L. Rodriguez, 51 yds made · 53% expected
  • M. Salgado-Medina, 31 yds made · 86% expected
  • M. Salgado-Medina, 62 yds missed · 37% expected
  • M. Salgado-Medina, 31 yds made · 86% expected
  • M. Salgado-Medina, 41 yds made · 71% expected
  • M. Salgado-Medina, 46 yds missed · 62% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Kansas State 2 for 30 yards, Arizona 7 for 56 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:32 Holding on Arizona, 10 yards +2% KSU +1.0 pts
Q1 5:09 Holding on Arizona, 10 yards +3% KSU +1.4 pts
Q2 11:47 False Start on Arizona, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% KSU +0.4 pts
Q2 8:45 Personal Foul on Kansas State, 15 yards +4% ARIZ +1.8 pts
Q2 7:08 Targeting on Kansas State, 15 yards +4% ARIZ +1.6 pts
Q2 1:26 Holding on Arizona, 6 yards, wiping out the play +1% KSU +0.8 pts
Q3 4:45 False Start on Arizona, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% KSU +0.9 pts
Q3 3:44 Holding on Arizona, 10 yards +2% KSU +1.0 pts
Q4 9:48 Holding on Arizona, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% KSU +1.8 pts

When it happened

Arizona’s chance of winning

As low as 37% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Arizona was ahead in it, below while Kansas State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:47 M. Salgado-Medina missed a 47-yard field goalKicks · 60% expected for him, 1 of 1 from 45+ before +5% KSU ARIZ: Touchdown
2 Q2 13:14 Arizona converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +5% ARIZ ARIZ: Field goal
3 Q3 11:50 Kansas State converted 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 17% expected +7% KSU KSU: Touchdown
4 Q3 4:54 Arizona converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +6% ARIZ ARIZ: Field goal
5 Q3 2:40 M. Salgado-Medina made a 31-yard field goalKicks · 86% expected for him +7% KSU ARIZ: Punt
6 Q3 0:42 Kansas State was stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +6% ARIZ KSU: Punt
7 Q4 8:16 Arizona converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +8% ARIZ ARIZ: Field goal
8 Q4 4:25 M. Salgado-Medina made a 41-yard field goalKicks · 71% expected for him +5% KSU ARIZ: Missed field goal

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Kansas State 24% · Arizona 76%

Final margin
Arizona by 6
Luck in points
1.3 for Arizona
Luck-adjusted margin
Arizona by 4.7
Replay with same day's form
Kansas State 15% · Arizona 85% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here. Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 33 of the 40 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · Kansas State · Arizona

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