luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 3 2025 · September 13, 2025

Abilene Christian at TCU, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?

TCU beat Abilene Christian 42–21, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, TCU wins 9 of 10.

Before kickoff TCU was a 100% favorite.

Final

Abilene Christian Wildcats 21
TCU Horned Frogs 42

September 13, 2025 · Amon G. Carter Stadium · Closing line: TCU −42.5

Luck index +7 TCU about even · −7 Abilene Christian

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Abilene Christian wins 1, TCU wins 9.

  1. 1 ACU 30 TCU 24
  2. 2 ACU 27 TCU 31
  3. 3 ACU 27 TCU 34
  4. 4 ACU 24 TCU 35
  5. 5 ACU 24 TCU 38
  6. 6 ACU 24 TCU 42
  7. 7 ACU 10 TCU 31
  8. 8 ACU 17 TCU 41
  9. 9 ACU 10 TCU 39
  10. 10 ACU 7 TCU 42

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Abilene Christian wins 7% of them, TCU 93%. The line is what actually happened: TCU by 21.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Abilene Christian by 17+0.4%
Abilene Christian by 9–161.8%
Abilene Christian by 1–84.8%
Level after regulation0.3%
TCU by 1–814.9%
TCU by 9–1620.7%
TCU by 17+57.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

No play in this game swung win probability by luck.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.5 points to TCU: the final margin was TCU by 21, without the luck TCU by 14.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • K. Meschi, 49 yds missed · 54% expected
  • B. Perez, 42 yds missed · 68% expected
  • B. Perez, 33 yds made · 81% expected
  • Extra point missed · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Abilene Christian 3 for 35 yards, TCU 4 for 46 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:38 Pass Interference on Abilene Christian, 15 yards 0% TCU +1.1 pts
Q1 3:49 Pass Interference on TCU, 15 yards 0% ACU +2.3 pts
Q2 8:27 Pass Interference on Abilene Christian, 15 yards, wiping out the play 0% TCU +3.8 pts
Q4 14:50 Pass Interference on TCU, 15 yards 0% ACU +1.4 pts
Q4 12:32 Pass Interference on TCU, 8 yards 0% ACU +0.3 pts
Q4 12:32 False Start on Abilene Christian, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TCU +0.6 pts
Q4 11:51 Roughing the Passer on TCU, 8 yards 0% ACU +1.5 pts

When it happened

TCU’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while TCU was ahead in it, below while Abilene Christian was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:38 Pass Interference on Abilene Christian, 15 yardsJudgment calls +0% TCU TCU: Touchdown
2 Q1 11:43 TCU converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +0% TCU TCU: Touchdown
3 Q1 8:24 Abilene Christian was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +0% TCU ACU: Punt
4 Q1 7:04 TCU converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +0% TCU TCU: Touchdown
5 Q2 8:27 Pass Interference on Abilene Christian, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +0% TCU TCU: Touchdown
6 Q3 10:23 Abilene Christian missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 98% of the time +0% TCU ACU: Field goal
7 Q4 11:08 Abilene Christian converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedAbilene Christian’s two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +0% TCU ACU: Touchdown
8 Q4 6:40 Abilene Christian converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedAbilene Christian’s two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +0% TCU ACU: End of game

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Abilene Christian 0% · TCU 100%

Final margin
TCU by 21
Luck in points
6.5 for TCU
Luck-adjusted margin
TCU by 14.5
Replay with same day's form
Abilene Christian 7% · TCU 93% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · Abilene Christian · TCU

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