Week 3 2025 · September 13, 2025
Eastern Kentucky at Marshall, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?
Marshall beat Eastern Kentucky 38–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Marshall wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Marshall was an 83% favorite.
Final
 Eastern Kentucky Colonels | 7 |
|---|---|
 Marshall Thundering Herd | 38 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Marshall about even · 0 Eastern Kentucky
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Eastern Kentucky wins 0, Marshall wins 10.
- 1 EKU 9 MRSH 28
- 2 EKU 8 MRSH 34
- 3 EKU 0 MRSH 30
- 4 EKU 7 MRSH 41
- 5 EKU 0 MRSH 38
- 6 EKU 0 MRSH 42
- 7 EKU 3 MRSH 48
- 8 EKU 0 MRSH 49
- 9 EKU 2 MRSH 56
- 10 EKU 3 MRSH 66
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Eastern Kentucky wins 0% of them, Marshall 100%. The line is what actually happened: Marshall by 31.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Eastern Kentucky by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Eastern Kentucky by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Eastern Kentucky by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Marshall by 1–8 | 0.9% |
| Marshall by 9–16 | 1.9% |
| Marshall by 17+ | 97.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- L. Quinn, 19 yds made · 94% expected
- B. Flabiano, 48 yds missed · 57% expected
- L. Quinn, 32 yds missed · 84% expected
Penalties: Eastern Kentucky 6 for 57 yards, Marshall 8 for 60 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:30 | Pass Interference on Eastern Kentucky, 13 yards | +2% MRSH +1.8 pts |
| Q1 12:24 | Offside on Marshall, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% EKU +0.3 pts |
| Q1 6:06 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Marshall, 15 yards | +6% MRSH +5.3 pts |
| Q1 3:26 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Eastern Kentucky, 15 yards | +1% MRSH +1.6 pts |
| Q1 2:15 | Offside on Eastern Kentucky, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MRSH +0.4 pts |
| Q2 10:05 | Pass Interference on Marshall, 15 yards | 0% EKU +2.2 pts |
| Q2 4:28 | Illegal Formation on Eastern Kentucky, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | 0% MRSH +1.0 pts |
| Q3 13:08 | Roughing the Passer on Marshall, 0 yards | 0% EKU 0.0 pts |
| Q3 12:18 | Illegal Formation on Marshall, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | 0% EKU +2.2 pts |
| Q3 12:05 | False Start on Marshall, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% EKU +0.7 pts |
| Q3 9:57 | Personal Foul on Eastern Kentucky, 15 yards | 0% MRSH +1.6 pts |
| Q3 6:05 | Offside on Marshall, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% EKU +0.8 pts |
| Q3 4:39 | Holding on Marshall, 10 yards | 0% EKU +1.2 pts |
| Q3 1:31 | Illegal Touching on Eastern Kentucky, 4 yards, wiping out the play | 0% MRSH +2.3 pts |
When it happened
Marshall’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:12 | Marshall was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +1% EKU | MRSH: Turnover on downs |
| 2 | Q1 12:30 | Pass Interference on Eastern Kentucky, 13 yardsJudgment calls | +2% MRSH | MRSH: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 10:48 | Eastern Kentucky was stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 17% expected | +1% MRSH | EKU: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 8:13 | L. Quinn made a 19-yard field goalKicks · 94% expected for him | +1% EKU | MRSH: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 6:06 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Marshall, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +6% MRSH | EKU: Punt |
| 6 | Q1 3:40 | Eastern Kentucky was stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 18% expected | +0% MRSH | EKU: Punt |
| 7 | Q1 3:26 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Eastern Kentucky, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +1% MRSH | MRSH: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q1 1:47 | Marshall converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +1% MRSH | MRSH: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Eastern Kentucky 0% · Marshall 100%
- Final margin
- Marshall by 31
- Luck in points
- 5.0 for Eastern Kentucky
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Marshall by 36.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Eastern Kentucky 0% · Marshall 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · 
Eastern Kentucky · 
Marshall
More from Week 3 2025
- Jacksonville State at Georgia Southern GASO 41–34 · replay 56% for the winner
- Iowa State at Arkansas State ISU 24–16 · replay 82% for the winner
- Old Dominion at Virginia Tech ODU 45–26 · replay 88% for the winner
- South Alabama at Auburn AUB 31–15 · replay 91% for the winner
- App State at Southern Miss USM 38–22 · replay 92% for the winner
- Abilene Christian at TCU TCU 42–21 · replay 93% for the winner
- East Carolina at Coastal Carolina ECU 38–0 · replay 96% for the winner
- Murray State at Georgia State GAST 37–21 · replay 98% for the winner
- Texas State at Arizona State ASU 34–15 · replay 98% for the winner
- Memphis at Troy MEM 28–7 · replay 99% for the winner
- Louisiana at Missouri MIZ 52–10 · replay 100% for the winner
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