luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 3 2025 · September 13, 2025

Memphis at Troy, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?

Memphis beat Troy 28–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Memphis wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Memphis was a 61% favorite. The biggest swing (Q1, 9:45 left): Illegal Formation on Troy, 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 15 points of win probability to Memphis.

Final

Memphis Tigers 28
Troy Trojans 7

September 13, 2025 · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL) · Closing line: Memphis −4.5

Luck index +1 Memphis about even · −1 Troy

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Memphis wins 10, Troy wins 0.

  1. 1 MEM 49 TROY 0
  2. 2 MEM 42 TROY 0
  3. 3 MEM 41 TROY 3
  4. 4 MEM 37 TROY 3
  5. 5 MEM 30 TROY 0
  6. 6 MEM 30 TROY 3
  7. 7 MEM 24 TROY 0
  8. 8 MEM 20 TROY 0
  9. 9 MEM 23 TROY 7
  10. 10 MEM 21 TROY 10

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Memphis wins 99% of them, Troy 1%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Memphis by 21.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Memphis by 17+86.6%
Memphis by 9–168.4%
Memphis by 1–83.6%
Level after regulation0.5%
Troy by 1–80.7%
Troy by 9–160.2%
Troy by 17+0.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +10.4 points to Memphis: the final margin was Memphis by 21, without the luck Memphis by 10.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Memphis 7 for 65 yards, Troy 3 for 15 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:45 Illegal Formation on Troy, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +15% MEM +8.9 pts
Q1 2:04 Holding on Memphis, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% TROY +1.7 pts
Q2 14:55 Holding on Memphis, 10 yards +2% TROY +0.9 pts
Q2 8:46 False Start on Memphis, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TROY +0.4 pts
Q2 4:58 False Start on Memphis, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TROY +0.5 pts
Q3 14:11 Pass Interference on Memphis, 15 yards +2% TROY +1.8 pts
Q3 6:37 False Start on Memphis, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TROY +0.6 pts
Q3 5:49 Offside on Troy, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MEM +0.7 pts
Q4 2:00 False Start on Troy, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MEM +0.3 pts
Q4 0:39 Pass Interference on Memphis, 15 yards 0% TROY +0.6 pts

When it happened

Troy’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Troy was ahead in it, below while Memphis was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:34 Memphis converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +3% MEM MEM: Turnover on downs
2 Q1 9:45 Illegal Formation on Troy, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +15% MEM MEM: Turnover on downs
3 Q1 2:04 Holding on Memphis, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +3% TROY TROY: Punt
4 Q2 12:02 Memphis converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 39% expectedMemphis fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by TroySpecial teams +12% TROY MEM: Touchdown
5 Q2 7:35 Troy was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +2% MEM TROY: Punt
6 Q2 4:05 Memphis was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +2% TROY MEM: Punt
7 Q3 14:11 Pass Interference on Memphis, 15 yardsJudgment calls +2% TROY TROY: Punt
8 Q3 10:01 Memphis converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +2% MEM MEM: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Memphis 81% · Troy 19%

Final margin
Memphis by 21
Luck in points
10.4 for Memphis
Luck-adjusted margin
Memphis by 10.6
Replay with same day's form
Memphis 99% · Troy 1% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · Memphis · Troy

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