Week 3 2025 · September 13, 2025
Florida Atlantic at Florida International, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?
Florida International beat Florida Atlantic 38–28, but the replays lean toward Florida Atlantic: it takes 7 of 10 with the same day's form.
Florida International won on an off day: it played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Florida Atlantic it would win 62% of the time; with this day’s form, 31%. The numbers
Before kickoff Florida International was a 56% favorite. The biggest swing (Q1, 10:07 left): Florida Atlantic was stopped on 4th & 1, worth 9 points of win probability to Florida International.
Final
 Florida Atlantic Owls | 28 |
|---|---|
 Florida International Panthers | 38 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +69 Florida International very lucky · −69 Florida Atlantic
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Florida Atlantic wins 7, Florida International wins 3.
- 1 FAU 51 FIU 10
- 2 FAU 47 FIU 17
- 3 FAU 38 FIU 16
- 4 FAU 38 FIU 21
- 5 FAU 30 FIU 17
- 6 FAU 45 FIU 37
- 7 FAU 41 FIU 38
- 8 FAU 35 FIU 38
- 9 FAU 28 FIU 37
- 10 FAU 27 FIU 50
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
Florida International won on an off day
It played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Florida Atlantic it would win 62% of the time; with this day’s form, 31%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
31 points apart for Florida International: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida Atlantic offenseEPA per play gained | −0.15 | +0.01 | worse by 0.16 |
| Florida Atlantic defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.23 | +0.09 | worse by 0.15 |
| Florida International offenseEPA per play gained | +0.23 | +0.04 | better by 0.19 |
| Florida International defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.15 | +0.00 | better by 0.15 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Florida Atlantic wins 69% of them, Florida International 31%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Florida International by 10.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Florida Atlantic by 17+ | 33.8% |
| Florida Atlantic by 9–16 | 15.9% |
| Florida Atlantic by 1–8 | 17.8% |
| Level after regulation | 3.6% |
| Florida International by 1–8 | 13.8% |
| Florida International by 9–16 | 7.5% |
| Florida International by 17+ | 7.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Florida Atlantic 8 for 67 yards, Florida International 5 for 45 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:07 | False Start on Florida International, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% FAU +0.6 pts |
| Q1 6:30 | Personal Foul on Florida Atlantic, 7 yards | +6% FIU +3.2 pts |
| Q1 3:36 | Ineligible Downfield on Florida International, 5 yards | +2% FAU +0.8 pts |
| Q1 1:25 | False Start on Florida Atlantic, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% FIU +0.7 pts |
| Q2 14:50 | Holding on Florida Atlantic, 10 yards | +2% FIU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 13:40 | Holding on Florida International, 10 yards | +2% FAU +0.9 pts |
| Q2 9:23 | Personal Foul on Florida Atlantic, 15 yards | +3% FIU +1.1 pts |
| Q3 11:00 | False Start on Florida Atlantic, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% FIU +0.9 pts |
| Q3 9:49 | Holding on Florida International, 10 yards | +3% FAU +1.1 pts |
| Q3 4:20 | Holding on Florida Atlantic, 10 yards | +1% FIU +1.4 pts |
| Q3 0:22 | False Start on Florida Atlantic, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% FIU +0.7 pts |
| Q4 7:45 | Offside on Florida Atlantic, 10 yards · pre-snap | 0% FIU +0.6 pts |
| Q4 0:02 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Florida International, 15 yards | 0% FIU +0.5 pts |
When it happened
Florida International’s chance of winning
As low as 36% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 10:07 | Florida Atlantic was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expectedFlorida Atlantic was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expectedFalse Start on Florida International, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +9% FIU | FAU: Turnover on downs |
| 2 | Q1 6:30 | Florida International was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expectedPersonal Foul on Florida Atlantic, 7 yardsJudgment calls | +4% FIU | FIU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 2:12 | Florida International was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +3% FAU | FIU: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 12:32 | Florida Atlantic was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected | +7% FIU | FAU: End of half |
| 5 | Q2 11:52 | Florida International fumbled and Florida Atlantic recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% FAU | FIU: End of half |
| 6 | Q2 9:36 | Florida Atlantic converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +4% FAU | FAU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 8:06 | Florida International converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +7% FIU | FIU: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 11:48 | Florida Atlantic converted 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +3% FAU | FAU: Turnover on downs |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Florida Atlantic 10% · Florida International 90%
- Final margin
- Florida International by 10
- Luck in points
- 1.1 for Florida International
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Florida International by 8.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Florida Atlantic 69% · Florida International 31% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · 
Florida Atlantic · 
Florida International
More from Week 3 2025
- Middle Tennessee at Nevada MTSU 14–13 · replay 21% for the winner
- Liberty at Bowling Green BGSU 23–13 · replay 33% for the winner
- SMU at Missouri State SMU 28–10 · replay 46% for the winner
- UConn at Delaware DEL 44–41 · replay 50% for the winner
- Jacksonville State at Georgia Southern GASO 41–34 · replay 56% for the winner
- Akron at UAB UAB 31–28 · replay 69% for the winner
- Duke at Tulane TULN 34–27 · replay 75% for the winner
- Navy at Tulsa NAVY 42–23 · replay 84% for the winner
- Monmouth at Charlotte CLT 42–35 · replay 86% for the winner
- Merrimack at Kennesaw State KENN 27–13 · replay 88% for the winner
- UTEP at Texas TEX 27–10 · replay 89% for the winner
- New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech LT 49–14 · replay 94% for the winner