Week 3 2025 · September 13, 2025
Merrimack at Kennesaw State, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?
Kennesaw State beat Merrimack 27–13, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Kennesaw State wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Kennesaw State was an 87% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 13:42 left): Holding on Kennesaw State, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 8 points of win probability to Merrimack.
Final
 Merrimack Warriors | 13 |
|---|---|
 Kennesaw State Owls | 27 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +12 Kennesaw State about even · −12 Merrimack
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Merrimack wins 1, Kennesaw State wins 9.
- 1 MRMK 27 KENN 21
- 2 MRMK 21 KENN 23
- 3 MRMK 13 KENN 19
- 4 MRMK 9 KENN 17
- 5 MRMK 7 KENN 17
- 6 MRMK 7 KENN 21
- 7 MRMK 7 KENN 24
- 8 MRMK 7 KENN 27
- 9 MRMK 3 KENN 28
- 10 MRMK 0 KENN 33
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Merrimack wins 12% of them, Kennesaw State 88%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Kennesaw State by 14.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Merrimack by 17+ | 0.9% |
| Merrimack by 9–16 | 3.2% |
| Merrimack by 1–8 | 6.5% |
| Level after regulation | 1.4% |
| Kennesaw State by 1–8 | 21.6% |
| Kennesaw State by 9–16 | 19.2% |
| Kennesaw State by 17+ | 47.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Thai, 50 yds missed · 53% expected
- B. Williams, 38 yds made · 75% expected
- B. Williams, 44 yds made · 64% expected
Penalties: Merrimack 8 for 54 yards, Kennesaw State 14 for 121 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:56 | Holding on Merrimack, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +3% KENN +2.4 pts |
| Q1 7:41 | False Start on Kennesaw State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% KENN +0.8 pts |
| Q2 14:38 | Holding on Kennesaw State, 10 yards | +1% MRMK +1.0 pts |
| Q2 13:42 | Holding on Kennesaw State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +8% MRMK +6.0 pts |
| Q2 11:10 | False Start on Merrimack, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% KENN +0.6 pts |
| Q2 6:22 | False Start on Kennesaw State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MRMK +1.2 pts |
| Q2 2:13 | False Start on Merrimack, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% KENN +0.3 pts |
| Q2 1:51 | Holding on Merrimack, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +1% KENN +1.5 pts |
| Q2 1:25 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Kennesaw State, 10 yards | 0% MRMK +0.3 pts |
| Q2 1:04 | False Start on Kennesaw State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MRMK +1.7 pts |
| Q2 0:24 | Running Into the Kicker on Merrimack, 5 yards | 0% KENN +0.1 pts |
| Q2 0:18 | Penalty on Merrimack, 5 yards | +1% KENN +1.0 pts |
| Q3 14:15 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Kennesaw State, 15 yards | +2% KENN +2.3 pts |
| Q3 12:53 | Holding on Merrimack, 6 yards, wiping out the play | +3% KENN +3.1 pts |
| Q3 10:02 | Penalty on Merrimack, 8 yards | 0% KENN +0.5 pts |
| Q3 8:22 | Holding on Kennesaw State, 9 yards | 0% MRMK +0.6 pts |
| Q3 7:40 | Pass Interference on Kennesaw State, 15 yards | 0% KENN +0.2 pts |
| Q3 5:47 | Personal Foul on Kennesaw State, 15 yards | 0% MRMK +3.1 pts |
| Q3 1:12 | Holding on Kennesaw State, 9 yards | 0% MRMK +1.5 pts |
| Q4 10:13 | Pass Interference on Kennesaw State, 7 yards | 0% MRMK +2.2 pts |
| Q4 10:07 | Roughing the Passer on Kennesaw State, 1 yard | 0% MRMK +0.3 pts |
| Q4 9:06 | Offside on Kennesaw State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MRMK +0.5 pts |
When it happened
Kennesaw State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:07 | Merrimack converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +3% MRMK | MRMK: End of half |
| 2 | Q1 10:56 | Holding on Merrimack, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +3% KENN | KENN: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 8:29 | Merrimack converted 4th & 153rd & 4th downs · 17% expected | +6% MRMK | MRMK: End of half |
| 4 | Q1 4:27 | Merrimack converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 23% expected | +4% MRMK | MRMK: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q2 14:56 | Merrimack was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected | +5% KENN | MRMK: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 13:42 | Holding on Kennesaw State, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +8% MRMK | MRMK: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 9:46 | Merrimack converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 17% expected | +5% MRMK | MRMK: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 12:53 | Holding on Merrimack, 6 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +3% KENN | KENN: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Merrimack 1% · Kennesaw State 99%
- Final margin
- Kennesaw State by 14
- Luck in points
- 1.3 for Merrimack
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Kennesaw State by 15.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Merrimack 12% · Kennesaw State 88% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · 
Merrimack · 
Kennesaw State
More from Week 3 2025
- Middle Tennessee at Nevada MTSU 14–13 · replay 21% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Florida International FIU 38–28 · replay 31% for the winner
- Liberty at Bowling Green BGSU 23–13 · replay 33% for the winner
- SMU at Missouri State SMU 28–10 · replay 46% for the winner
- UConn at Delaware DEL 44–41 · replay 50% for the winner
- Jacksonville State at Georgia Southern GASO 41–34 · replay 56% for the winner
- UTEP at Texas TEX 27–10 · replay 89% for the winner
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- Georgia at Tennessee UGA 44–41 · replay 20% for the winner
- Florida at LSU LSU 20–10 · replay 30% for the winner
- Clemson at Georgia Tech GT 24–21 · replay 33% for the winner
- Texas A&M at Notre Dame TA&M 41–40 · replay 37% for the winner