Week 3 2025 · September 13, 2025
Clemson at Georgia Tech, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?
Georgia Tech beat Clemson 24–21, but the replays lean toward Clemson: it takes 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: fumble bounces alone were worth 15 points of win probability to Georgia Tech.
Before kickoff Clemson was a 58% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 3:40 left): Pass Interference on Georgia Tech, 2 yards, worth 17 points of win probability to Clemson.
Final
 Clemson Tigers | 21 |
|---|---|
 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +67 Georgia Tech very lucky · −67 Clemson
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Clemson wins 7, Georgia Tech wins 3.
- 1 CLEM 35 GT 7
- 2 CLEM 28 GT 7
- 3 CLEM 21 GT 7
- 4 CLEM 16 GT 3
- 5 CLEM 23 GT 14
- 6 CLEM 14 GT 10
- 7 CLEM 10 GT 7
- 8 CLEM 21 GT 24
- 9 CLEM 14 GT 21
- 10 CLEM 7 GT 24
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Clemson wins 67% of them, Georgia Tech 33%, counting the 8% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Georgia Tech by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Clemson by 17+ | 22.8% |
| Clemson by 9–16 | 19.0% |
| Clemson by 1–8 | 22.7% |
| Level after regulation | 7.7% |
| Georgia Tech by 1–8 | 15.3% |
| Georgia Tech by 9–16 | 7.4% |
| Georgia Tech by 17+ | 5.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- A. Birr, 40 yds made · 74% expected
- N. Hauser, 52 yds missed · 49% expected
- A. Birr, 42 yds made · 71% expected
- A. Birr, 55 yds made · 47% expected
Penalties: Clemson 2 for 25 yards, Georgia Tech 3 for 16 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 6:23 | Holding on Clemson, 10 yards | +2% GT +1.0 pts |
| Q3 8:51 | Personal Foul on Clemson, 15 yards | +3% GT +0.9 pts |
| Q3 7:52 | Illegal Block on Georgia Tech, 9 yards | +2% CLEM +0.6 pts |
| Q3 4:38 | False Start on Georgia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% CLEM +1.0 pts |
| Q4 3:40 | Pass Interference on Georgia Tech, 2 yards | +17% CLEM +2.6 pts |
When it happened
Georgia Tech’s chance of winning
As low as 33% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 4:58 | Clemson converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +5% CLEM | CLEM: Missed field goal |
| 2 | Q1 1:40 | N. Hauser missed a 52-yard field goalKicks · 49% expected for him, 2 of 5 from 45+ before | +5% GT | CLEM: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 5:23 | Clemson converted 3rd & 223rd & 4th downs · 14% expected | +7% CLEM | CLEM: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 2:20 | Georgia Tech was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expectedGeorgia Tech fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +8% CLEM | GT: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 1:24 | Clemson was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +5% GT | CLEM: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 13:40 | Georgia Tech converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +7% GT | GT: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 10:02 | Georgia Tech converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expectedGeorgia Tech’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +10% GT | GT: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 3:40 | Pass Interference on Georgia Tech, 2 yardsJudgment calls | +17% CLEM | CLEM: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Clemson 72% · Georgia Tech 28%
- Final margin
- Georgia Tech by 3
- Luck in points
- 6.8 for Georgia Tech
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Clemson by 3.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Clemson 67% · Georgia Tech 33% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · 
Clemson · 
Georgia Tech
More from Week 3 2025
- NC State at Wake Forest NCSU 34–24 · replay 40% for the winner
- SMU at Missouri State SMU 28–10 · replay 46% for the winner
- Boston College at Stanford STAN 30–20 · replay 71% for the winner
- Minnesota at California CAL 27–14 · replay 72% for the winner
- Duke at Tulane TULN 34–27 · replay 75% for the winner
- Old Dominion at Virginia Tech ODU 45–26 · replay 88% for the winner
- Pittsburgh at West Virginia WVU 31–24 · replay 92% for the winner
- Richmond at North Carolina UNC 41–6 · replay 99% for the winner
- William & Mary at Virginia UVA 55–16 · replay 99% for the winner
- Colgate at Syracuse SYR 66–24 · replay 100% for the winner
- South Florida at Miami MIA 49–12 · replay 100% for the winner
- Georgia at Tennessee UGA 44–41 · replay 20% for the winner