Week 3 2025 · September 13, 2025
Boston College at Stanford, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?
Stanford beat Boston College 30–20, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10. Boston College had the bounces: pre-snap flags alone were worth 11 points of win probability to Boston College.
An off day for Boston College: its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Stanford it would win 68% of the time; with this day’s form, 29%. The numbers
Before kickoff Boston College was an 82% favorite.
Final
 Boston College Eagles | 20 |
|---|---|
 Stanford Cardinal | 30 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +29 Stanford lucky · −29 Boston College
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Boston College wins 3, Stanford wins 7.
- 1 BC 31 STAN 13
- 2 BC 20 STAN 10
- 3 BC 31 STAN 27
- 4 BC 28 STAN 30
- 5 BC 10 STAN 16
- 6 BC 20 STAN 30
- 7 BC 14 STAN 27
- 8 BC 7 STAN 24
- 9 BC 6 STAN 27
- 10 BC 10 STAN 38
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Boston College
Its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Stanford it would win 68% of the time; with this day’s form, 29%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
39 points apart for Boston College: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boston College offenseEPA per play gained | −0.15 | +0.03 | worse by 0.17 |
| Boston College defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.07 | +0.07 | better by 0.01 |
| Stanford offenseEPA per play gained | +0.07 | +0.01 | better by 0.06 |
| Stanford defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.15 | +0.13 | better by 0.27 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Boston College wins 29% of them, Stanford 71%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Stanford by 10.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Boston College by 17+ | 5.4% |
| Boston College by 9–16 | 8.6% |
| Boston College by 1–8 | 15.2% |
| Level after regulation | 3.6% |
| Stanford by 1–8 | 21.3% |
| Stanford by 9–16 | 18.1% |
| Stanford by 17+ | 27.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- E. Kenney, 23 yds made · 94% expected
- E. Kenney, 35 yds made · 82% expected
- L. Lombardo, 51 yds made · 53% expected
- L. Lombardo, 31 yds made · 87% expected
- E. Kenney, 26 yds made · 92% expected
Penalties: Boston College 4 for 25 yards, Stanford 3 for 15 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 7:06 | Penalty on Boston College, 10 yards | +1% STAN +0.6 pts |
| Q2 9:49 | False Start on Stanford, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BC +0.5 pts |
| Q2 9:38 | False Start on Boston College, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% STAN +0.6 pts |
| Q2 1:29 | Illegal Substitution on Stanford, 5 yards · pre-snap | +8% BC +4.5 pts |
| Q2 1:02 | False Start on Boston College, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% STAN +0.3 pts |
| Q4 10:00 | Offside on Stanford, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% BC +1.2 pts |
| Q4 2:12 | Offside on Boston College, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% STAN +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Stanford’s chance of winning
As low as 3% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:51 | Stanford converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +4% STAN | STAN: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 7:10 | E. Kenney made a 23-yard field goalKicks · 94% expected for him | +4% BC | STAN: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 1:29 | Illegal Substitution on Stanford, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsReturn touchdown by StanfordSpecial teams | +6% STAN | BC: Field goal |
| 4 | Q3 11:20 | Stanford was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected | +4% BC | STAN: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 10:31 | Boston College was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +4% STAN | BC: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 6:24 | Boston College converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +4% BC | BC: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q3 0:41 | Boston College was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +5% STAN | BC: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 7:42 | Boston College was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +4% STAN | BC: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Boston College 0% · Stanford 100%
- Final margin
- Stanford by 10
- Luck in points
- 12.9 for Boston College
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Stanford by 22.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Boston College 29% · Stanford 71% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · 
Boston College · 
Stanford
More from Week 3 2025
- Clemson at Georgia Tech GT 24–21 · replay 33% for the winner
- NC State at Wake Forest NCSU 34–24 · replay 40% for the winner
- SMU at Missouri State SMU 28–10 · replay 46% for the winner
- Minnesota at California CAL 27–14 · replay 72% for the winner
- Duke at Tulane TULN 34–27 · replay 75% for the winner
- Old Dominion at Virginia Tech ODU 45–26 · replay 88% for the winner
- Pittsburgh at West Virginia WVU 31–24 · replay 92% for the winner
- Richmond at North Carolina UNC 41–6 · replay 99% for the winner
- William & Mary at Virginia UVA 55–16 · replay 99% for the winner
- Colgate at Syracuse SYR 66–24 · replay 100% for the winner
- South Florida at Miami MIA 49–12 · replay 100% for the winner
- Georgia at Tennessee UGA 44–41 · replay 20% for the winner