Week 3 2025 · September 12, 2025
Colgate at Syracuse, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?
Syracuse beat Colgate 66–24, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Syracuse wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Syracuse was a 99% favorite.
Final
 Colgate Raiders | 24 |
|---|---|
 Syracuse Orange | 66 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Syracuse about even · 0 Colgate
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Colgate wins 0, Syracuse wins 10.
- 1 COLG 24 SYR 47
- 2 COLG 10 SYR 42
- 3 COLG 10 SYR 47
- 4 COLG 27 SYR 68
- 5 COLG 27 SYR 73
- 6 COLG 17 SYR 69
- 7 COLG 13 SYR 69
- 8 COLG 7 SYR 66
- 9 COLG 3 SYR 68
- 10 COLG 13 SYR 87
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Colgate wins 0% of them, Syracuse 100%. The line is what actually happened: Syracuse by 42.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Colgate by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Colgate by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Colgate by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Syracuse by 1–8 | 0.4% |
| Syracuse by 9–16 | 1.4% |
| Syracuse by 17+ | 98.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- L. Vogeler, 39 yds made · 75% expected
- T. Woody, 22 yds made · 93% expected
- L. Vogeler, 49 yds missed · 57% expected
Penalties: Colgate 5 for 40 yards, Syracuse 5 for 52 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:25 | Holding on Syracuse, 10 yards | 0% COLG +0.9 pts |
| Q1 10:25 | False Start on Colgate, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SYR +0.8 pts |
| Q1 7:35 | False Start on Colgate, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SYR +0.9 pts |
| Q1 4:33 | False Start on Syracuse, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% COLG +0.7 pts |
| Q2 10:14 | Offside on Colgate, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SYR +0.7 pts |
| Q3 13:32 | Holding on Syracuse, 10 yards | 0% COLG +1.1 pts |
| Q3 9:27 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Colgate, 15 yards | 0% SYR +2.8 pts |
| Q3 9:07 | Holding on Colgate, 10 yards | 0% SYR +0.6 pts |
| Q3 2:19 | Pass Interference on Syracuse, 15 yards | 0% COLG +3.3 pts |
| Q4 9:18 | Holding on Syracuse, 12 yards | 0% COLG +0.7 pts |
When it happened
Syracuse’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:06 | Colgate was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +0% SYR | COLG: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 11:14 | Syracuse converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 56% expected | +0% SYR | SYR: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 8:12 | Syracuse fumbled and Colgate recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +0% COLG | SYR: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 7:35 | False Start on Colgate, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% SYR | SYR: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 5:52 | Colgate was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected | +0% SYR | COLG: Field goal |
| 6 | Q1 4:33 | False Start on Syracuse, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% COLG | COLG: Punt |
| 7 | Q1 2:59 | Syracuse converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +0% SYR | SYR: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q1 2:12 | Syracuse converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +0% SYR | SYR: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Colgate 0% · Syracuse 100%
- Final margin
- Syracuse by 42
- Luck in points
- 5.6 for Syracuse
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Syracuse by 36.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Colgate 0% · Syracuse 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · 
Colgate · 
Syracuse
More from Week 3 2025
- Clemson at Georgia Tech GT 24–21 · replay 33% for the winner
- NC State at Wake Forest NCSU 34–24 · replay 40% for the winner
- SMU at Missouri State SMU 28–10 · replay 46% for the winner
- Boston College at Stanford STAN 30–20 · replay 71% for the winner
- Minnesota at California CAL 27–14 · replay 72% for the winner
- Duke at Tulane TULN 34–27 · replay 75% for the winner
- Old Dominion at Virginia Tech ODU 45–26 · replay 88% for the winner
- Pittsburgh at West Virginia WVU 31–24 · replay 92% for the winner
- Richmond at North Carolina UNC 41–6 · replay 99% for the winner
- William & Mary at Virginia UVA 55–16 · replay 99% for the winner
- South Florida at Miami MIA 49–12 · replay 100% for the winner
- Georgia at Tennessee UGA 44–41 · replay 20% for the winner