Week 3 2025 · September 13, 2025
SMU at Missouri State, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?
SMU beat Missouri State 28–10, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, SMU wins 5 of 10.
SMU won on an off day: it played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Missouri State it would win 97% of the time; with this day’s form, 46%. The numbers
Before kickoff SMU was a 97% favorite.
Final
 SMU Mustangs | 28 |
|---|---|
 Missouri State Bears | 10 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +54 SMU lucky · −54 Missouri State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. SMU wins 5, Missouri State wins 5.
- 1 SMU 44 MOST 13
- 2 SMU 35 MOST 17
- 3 SMU 31 MOST 20
- 4 SMU 31 MOST 24
- 5 SMU 30 MOST 27
- 6 SMU 31 MOST 34
- 7 SMU 31 MOST 38
- 8 SMU 24 MOST 37
- 9 SMU 21 MOST 38
- 10 SMU 7 MOST 34
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
SMU won on an off day
It played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Missouri State it would win 97% of the time; with this day’s form, 46%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
51 points apart for SMU: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| SMU offenseEPA per play gained | +0.41 | +0.14 | better by 0.27 |
| SMU defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.07 | +0.01 | better by 0.07 |
| Missouri State offenseEPA per play gained | −0.07 | +0.11 | worse by 0.18 |
| Missouri State defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.41 | +0.07 | worse by 0.34 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
SMU wins 46% of them, Missouri State 54%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: SMU by 18.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| SMU by 17+ | 14.4% |
| SMU by 9–16 | 13.0% |
| SMU by 1–8 | 18.3% |
| Level after regulation | 1.7% |
| Missouri State by 1–8 | 20.0% |
| Missouri State by 9–16 | 15.1% |
| Missouri State by 17+ | 17.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- Y. Obeid, 38 yds made · 78% expected
- S. Keltner, 43 yds missed · 67% expected
- Y. Obeid, 60 yds missed · 41% expected
Penalties: SMU 12 for 130 yards, Missouri State 6 for 57 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:38 | Illegal Block on SMU, 10 yards | +3% SMU +6.0 pts |
| Q1 9:38 | Personal Foul on SMU, 15 yards | +1% MOST +1.8 pts |
| Q1 9:38 | Personal Foul on SMU, 15 yards | +1% MOST +2.2 pts |
| Q1 6:57 | Offside on SMU, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MOST +0.3 pts |
| Q2 9:06 | Roughing the Passer on SMU, 15 yards | +3% MOST +1.6 pts |
| Q2 9:06 | Delay of Game on Missouri State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SMU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 3:42 | Personal Foul on SMU, 15 yards | +2% MOST +1.6 pts |
| Q2 1:52 | Personal Foul on Missouri State, 12 yards | +2% SMU +1.5 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Pass Interference on SMU, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +6% MOST +6.6 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Offside on SMU, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MOST +0.8 pts |
| Q3 9:27 | Offside on Missouri State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SMU +1.0 pts |
| Q3 9:27 | Illegal Formation on SMU, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +1% MOST +1.5 pts |
| Q3 3:03 | Personal Foul on Missouri State, 15 yards | +1% SMU +1.2 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | False Start on SMU, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MOST +0.4 pts |
| Q4 12:58 | Personal Foul on SMU, 15 yards | 0% MOST +4.2 pts |
| Q4 5:59 | Personal Foul on Missouri State, 15 yards | 0% SMU +1.4 pts |
| Q4 5:59 | Holding on SMU, 10 yards | 0% MOST +0.6 pts |
| Q4 5:59 | Offside on Missouri State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SMU +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Missouri State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 6:57 | S. Keltner missed a 43-yard field goalKicks · 67% expected for himOffside on SMU, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +2% MOST | SMU: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 2:55 | SMU converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 43% expectedSMU was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +3% SMU | SMU: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 15:00 | Missouri State was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +1% SMU | MOST: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 13:34 | SMU was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +3% MOST | SMU: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 7:36 | SMU converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +3% SMU | SMU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 5:56 | SMU converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +3% SMU | SMU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 1:52 | Personal Foul on Missouri State, 12 yardsJudgment calls | +2% SMU | SMU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 15:00 | Missouri State was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expectedPass Interference on SMU, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment callsOffside on SMU, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +5% MOST | MOST: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
SMU 99% · Missouri State 1%
- Final margin
- SMU by 18
- Luck in points
- 2.9 for SMU
- Luck-adjusted margin
- SMU by 15.1
- Replay with same day's form
- SMU 46% · Missouri State 54% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · 
SMU · 
Missouri State
More from Week 3 2025
- Middle Tennessee at Nevada MTSU 14–13 · replay 21% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Florida International FIU 38–28 · replay 31% for the winner
- Clemson at Georgia Tech GT 24–21 · replay 33% for the winner
- Liberty at Bowling Green BGSU 23–13 · replay 33% for the winner
- NC State at Wake Forest NCSU 34–24 · replay 40% for the winner
- UConn at Delaware DEL 44–41 · replay 50% for the winner
- Jacksonville State at Georgia Southern GASO 41–34 · replay 56% for the winner
- Boston College at Stanford STAN 30–20 · replay 71% for the winner
- Minnesota at California CAL 27–14 · replay 72% for the winner
- Duke at Tulane TULN 34–27 · replay 75% for the winner
- Old Dominion at Virginia Tech ODU 45–26 · replay 88% for the winner
- Merrimack at Kennesaw State KENN 27–13 · replay 88% for the winner