Week 3 2025 · September 13, 2025
Jacksonville State at Georgia Southern, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?
Georgia Southern beat Jacksonville State 41–34, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Georgia Southern wins 6 of 10.
Before kickoff Georgia Southern was a 58% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 0:34 left): Penalty on Georgia Southern, 15 yards, worth 15 points of win probability to Jacksonville State.
Final
 Jacksonville State Gamecocks | 34 |
|---|---|
 Georgia Southern Eagles | 41 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +44 Georgia Southern lucky · −44 Jacksonville State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Jacksonville State wins 4, Georgia Southern wins 6.
- 1 JXST 41 GASO 17
- 2 JXST 42 GASO 28
- 3 JXST 35 GASO 28
- 4 JXST 23 GASO 20
- 5 JXST 21 GASO 24
- 6 JXST 14 GASO 21
- 7 JXST 26 GASO 35
- 8 JXST 10 GASO 24
- 9 JXST 24 GASO 42
- 10 JXST 13 GASO 38
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Jacksonville State wins 44% of them, Georgia Southern 56%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Georgia Southern by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Jacksonville State by 17+ | 10.8% |
| Jacksonville State by 9–16 | 12.3% |
| Jacksonville State by 1–8 | 20.8% |
| Level after regulation | 1.4% |
| Georgia Southern by 1–8 | 22.5% |
| Georgia Southern by 9–16 | 17.7% |
| Georgia Southern by 17+ | 14.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- T. Bryant, 37 yds made · 77% expected
- G. Rippa, 30 yds made · 86% expected
- G. Rippa, 33 yds made · 83% expected
- T. Bryant, 43 yds made · 67% expected
Penalties: Jacksonville State 4 for 23 yards, Georgia Southern 2 for 20 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 3:29 | False Start on Georgia Southern, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% JXST +0.5 pts |
| Q3 10:45 | Illegal Formation on Jacksonville State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% GASO +0.9 pts |
| Q3 3:50 | Penalty on Jacksonville State, 8 yards | +1% GASO +0.5 pts |
| Q3 0:34 | Penalty on Georgia Southern, 15 yards | +15% JXST +3.9 pts |
| Q4 7:25 | Offside on Jacksonville State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% GASO +0.2 pts |
| Q4 5:48 | Illegal Formation on Jacksonville State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% GASO +0.7 pts |
When it happened
Georgia Southern’s chance of winning
As low as 43% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 3:42 | Jacksonville State converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +5% JXST | JXST: Turnover |
| 2 | Q3 7:57 | Georgia Southern was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 58% expected | +5% JXST | GASO: Punt |
| 3 | Q3 3:17 | Georgia Southern fumbled and Jacksonville State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +8% JXST | GASO: Field goal |
| 4 | Q3 0:34 | Penalty on Georgia Southern, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +15% JXST | JXST: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 12:39 | Georgia Southern converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +11% GASO | GASO: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 11:24 | Georgia Southern was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +6% JXST | GASO: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 10:07 | Jacksonville State was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +5% GASO | JXST: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 7:41 | Georgia Southern converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +7% GASO | GASO: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Jacksonville State 8% · Georgia Southern 92%
- Final margin
- Georgia Southern by 7
- Luck in points
- 1.4 for Jacksonville State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Georgia Southern by 8.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Jacksonville State 44% · Georgia Southern 56% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · 
Jacksonville State · 
Georgia Southern
More from Week 3 2025
- Middle Tennessee at Nevada MTSU 14–13 · replay 21% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Florida International FIU 38–28 · replay 31% for the winner
- Liberty at Bowling Green BGSU 23–13 · replay 33% for the winner
- SMU at Missouri State SMU 28–10 · replay 46% for the winner
- UConn at Delaware DEL 44–41 · replay 50% for the winner
- Iowa State at Arkansas State ISU 24–16 · replay 82% for the winner
- Old Dominion at Virginia Tech ODU 45–26 · replay 88% for the winner
- Merrimack at Kennesaw State KENN 27–13 · replay 88% for the winner
- UTEP at Texas TEX 27–10 · replay 89% for the winner
- South Alabama at Auburn AUB 31–15 · replay 91% for the winner
- App State at Southern Miss USM 38–22 · replay 92% for the winner
- New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech LT 49–14 · replay 94% for the winner