Conference USA · 2026 season, in progress
Jacksonville State Gamecocks: luck and expected wins
Jacksonville State is 3–2 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 3.4 wins. Luck cost 0.4: the 33rd-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 1–1.
2026, game by game
How often Jacksonville State wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ North Dakota State | L 7–33 | 3% | −3 |
| Week 1 | vs Eastern Kentucky | W 49–7 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 2 | @ Ohio | L 27–29 | 73% | −73 |
| Week 3 | vs Georgia Southern | W 31–27 | 67% | +33 |
| Week 4 | vs Middle Tennessee | W 23–13 | 98% | +2 |
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.
| Week | Game | Our pick | Jacksonville State win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 6 · Oct 7 | at Kennesaw State |  Kennesaw State by 0.8 | 48% |
| Week 7 · Oct 13 | vs Florida International |  Jacksonville State by 6.8 | 66% |
| Week 9 · Oct 28 | at New Mexico State | Jacksonville State by 5.8 | 64% |
| Week 10 · Nov 7 | vs Sam Houston | Jacksonville State by 9.5 | 71% |
| Week 11 · Nov 14 | at Western Kentucky | Jacksonville State by 3.3 | 58% |
| Week 12 · Nov 21 | vs Missouri State | Jacksonville State by 8.9 | 70% |
| Week 13 · Nov 28 | at Delaware | Jacksonville State by 0.1 | 50% |
Where the luck came from, 2026
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Jacksonville State’s favor.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | +0.35 | −5.0 |
| Pre-snap flags | +0.08 | +1.8 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.17 | −7.0 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.27 | −0.7 |
Luckiest wins
Wins Jacksonville State takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 14 | vs Western Kentucky | W 37–34 | 44% | +56 |
| 2025 Week 2 | vs Liberty | W 34–24 | 60% | +40 |
| 2025 Week 12 | vs Kennesaw State | W 35–26 | 64% | +36 |
| 2025 Week 7 | vs Sam Houston | W 29–27 | 64% | +36 |
| 2025 IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl | vs Troy | W 17–13 | 65% | +35 |
Unluckiest losses
Losses Jacksonville State would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Week 2 | @ Ohio | L 27–29 | 73% | −73 |
| 2025 Week 15 | vs Kennesaw State | L 15–19 | 61% | −61 |
| 2025 Week 13 | @ Florida International | L 21–27 | 58% | −58 |
| 2025 Week 3 | @ Georgia Southern | L 34–41 | 44% | −44 |
| 2025 Week 1 | @ UCF | L 10–17 | 21% | −21 |
Earlier seasons
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Postseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 8–5 | 7.3 | +0.7 | 4–4 | 1–0 |
2025, game by game
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ UCF | L 10–17 | 21% | −21 |
| Week 2 | vs Liberty | W 34–24 | 60% | +40 |
| Week 3 | @ Georgia Southern | L 34–41 | 44% | −44 |
| Week 4 | vs Murray State | W 45–10 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 5 | @ Southern Miss | L 25–42 | 1% | −1 |
| Week 7 | vs Sam Houston | W 29–27 | 64% | +36 |
| Week 8 | vs Delaware | W 38–25 | 79% | +21 |
| Week 10 | @ Middle Tennessee | W 24–21 | 75% | +25 |
| Week 11 | @ UTEP | W 30–27 | 65% | +35 |
| Week 12 | vs Kennesaw State | W 35–26 | 64% | +36 |
| Week 13 | @ Florida International | L 21–27 | 58% | −58 |
| Week 14 | vs Western Kentucky | W 37–34 | 44% | +56 |
| Week 15 | vs Kennesaw State | L 15–19 | 61% | −61 |
| IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl | vs Troy | W 17–13 | 65% | +35 |
More
- 2026 college football luck rankings
- Conference USA teams by luck
- Conference USA:
Delaware, 
Florida International, Kennesaw State, 
Liberty, 
Middle Tennessee, 
Missouri State, 
New Mexico State, 
Sam Houston, 
Western Kentucky
How many wins does Jacksonville State have in 2026?
3–2 so far. Replayed with the way both teams played, its games were worth 3.4 wins.
Was Jacksonville State lucky or unlucky in 2026?
Neither: about as lucky as the average team so far: −0.4 wins of luck, the 33rd-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams.
What was Jacksonville State’s luckiest season?
2025: 8–5 from play worth 7.3 wins, +0.7 of luck. The unluckiest: 2026, 3–2 from play worth 3.4 (−0.4).