luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2026 · September 5, 2026

Eastern Kentucky at Jacksonville State, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?

Jacksonville State beat Eastern Kentucky 49–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Jacksonville State wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Jacksonville State was a 93% favorite.

Final

Eastern Kentucky Colonels 7
Jacksonville State Gamecocks 49

September 5, 2026 · AmFirst Stadium · Closing line: Jacksonville State −22.5

Luck index +1 Jacksonville State about even · −1 Eastern Kentucky

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eastern Kentucky wins 0, Jacksonville State wins 10.

  1. 1 EKU 28 JXST 37
  2. 2 EKU 14 JXST 31
  3. 3 EKU 14 JXST 35
  4. 4 EKU 14 JXST 38
  5. 5 EKU 14 JXST 42
  6. 6 EKU 14 JXST 45
  7. 7 EKU 14 JXST 48
  8. 8 EKU 14 JXST 52
  9. 9 EKU 14 JXST 56
  10. 10 EKU 10 JXST 59

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eastern Kentucky wins 1% of them, Jacksonville State 99%. The line is what actually happened: Jacksonville State by 42.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eastern Kentucky by 17+0.0%
Eastern Kentucky by 9–160.1%
Eastern Kentucky by 1–80.3%
Level after regulation0.3%
Jacksonville State by 1–82.6%
Jacksonville State by 9–165.3%
Jacksonville State by 17+91.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.0 points to Jacksonville State: the final margin was Jacksonville State by 42, without the luck Jacksonville State by 38. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Eastern Kentucky 10 for 80 yards, Jacksonville State 5 for 49 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Holding on Eastern Kentucky, 10 yards +1% JXST +1.6 pts
Q1 15:00 False Start on Eastern Kentucky, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% JXST +0.7 pts
Q1 11:02 Holding on Eastern Kentucky, 10 yards 0% JXST +1.3 pts
Q1 0:11 Illegal Block on Jacksonville State, 9 yards 0% EKU +0.6 pts
Q2 5:19 Holding on Jacksonville State, 10 yards 0% EKU +1.9 pts
Q2 5:19 Holding on Eastern Kentucky, 10 yards 0% JXST +0.6 pts
Q2 5:19 False Start on Eastern Kentucky, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% JXST +0.5 pts
Q2 5:19 Illegal Shift on Eastern Kentucky, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% JXST +0.5 pts
Q2 0:14 False Start on Eastern Kentucky, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% JXST +1.6 pts
Q3 14:06 Illegal Shift on Jacksonville State, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap 0% EKU +4.8 pts
Q3 6:03 Roughing the Passer on Jacksonville State, 15 yards 0% EKU +2.1 pts
Q3 6:03 Holding on Eastern Kentucky, 10 yards 0% JXST +0.6 pts
Q4 14:09 Holding on Eastern Kentucky, 10 yards 0% JXST +3.3 pts
Q4 11:26 Holding on Jacksonville State, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% EKU +2.0 pts
Q4 7:09 Holding on Eastern Kentucky, 10 yards 0% JXST +0.6 pts

When it happened

Jacksonville State’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Jacksonville State was ahead in it, below while Eastern Kentucky was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 15:00 Eastern Kentucky converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 22% expectedEastern Kentucky was stopped on 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 17% expectedEastern Kentucky fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Holding on Eastern Kentucky, 10 yardsJudgment callsFalse Start on Eastern Kentucky, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +2% EKU EKU: Punt
2 Q1 11:02 Jacksonville State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expectedJacksonville State was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedJacksonville State converted 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedJacksonville State was stopped on 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 21% expectedHolding on Eastern Kentucky, 10 yardsJudgment calls +3% JXST JXST: Touchdown
3 Q1 6:20 Eastern Kentucky was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +0% EKU EKU: Punt
4 Q1 4:25 Eastern Kentucky converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +1% JXST EKU: Turnover
5 Q1 0:11 Illegal Block on Jacksonville State, 9 yardsJudgment calls +0% EKU EKU: Touchdown
6 Q2 15:00 Jacksonville State converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +0% JXST JXST: Touchdown
7 Q2 10:27 Return touchdown by Jacksonville StateSpecial teams +0% JXST JXST: Touchdown
8 Q4 14:09 Eastern Kentucky was stopped on 3rd & 203rd & 4th downs · 15% expectedHolding on Eastern Kentucky, 10 yardsJudgment calls +0% JXST EKU: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eastern Kentucky 0% · Jacksonville State 100%

Final margin
Jacksonville State by 42
Luck in points
3.9 for Jacksonville State
Luck-adjusted margin
Jacksonville State by 38.1
Replay with same day's form
Eastern Kentucky 1% · Jacksonville State 99% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · Eastern Kentucky · Jacksonville State

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