luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2026 · September 5, 2026

Murray State at Middle Tennessee, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?

Middle Tennessee beat Murray State 38–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Middle Tennessee wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Middle Tennessee was a 93% favorite.

Final

Murray State Racers 14
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 38

September 5, 2026 · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium · Closing line: Middle Tennessee −22.5

Luck index +5 Middle Tennessee about even · −5 Murray State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Murray State wins 0, Middle Tennessee wins 10.

  1. 1 MUR 16 MTSU 20
  2. 2 MUR 14 MTSU 21
  3. 3 MUR 13 MTSU 24
  4. 4 MUR 0 MTSU 14
  5. 5 MUR 13 MTSU 30
  6. 6 MUR 8 MTSU 26
  7. 7 MUR 3 MTSU 24
  8. 8 MUR 13 MTSU 38
  9. 9 MUR 7 MTSU 35
  10. 10 MUR 0 MTSU 35

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Murray State wins 5% of them, Middle Tennessee 95%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Middle Tennessee by 24.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Murray State by 17+0.1%
Murray State by 9–161.0%
Murray State by 1–83.6%
Level after regulation0.5%
Middle Tennessee by 1–89.5%
Middle Tennessee by 9–1621.3%
Middle Tennessee by 17+63.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.6 points to Middle Tennessee: the final margin was Middle Tennessee by 24, without the luck Middle Tennessee by 18.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Murray State 9 for 90 yards, Middle Tennessee 10 for 81 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:53 Illegal Block on Middle Tennessee, 4 yards 0% MUR +0.2 pts
Q1 13:30 Personal Foul on Murray State, 15 yards +1% MTSU +1.6 pts
Q1 13:10 Personal Foul on Middle Tennessee, 15 yards 0% MUR +0.9 pts
Q1 11:11 False Start on Murray State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MUR +0.3 pts
Q1 9:36 Holding on Middle Tennessee, 10 yards 0% MUR +0.6 pts
Q1 9:36 Personal Foul on Murray State, 15 yards +1% MTSU +1.6 pts
Q1 9:36 Ineligible Downfield on Middle Tennessee, 5 yards +1% MUR +1.1 pts
Q1 4:28 Holding on Murray State, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% MTSU +1.6 pts
Q1 0:13 Holding on Murray State, 10 yards 0% MTSU +0.6 pts
Q2 14:02 Personal Foul on Murray State, 15 yards 0% MTSU +2.3 pts
Q2 5:06 Holding on Middle Tennessee, 10 yards 0% MUR +0.6 pts
Q2 3:22 Holding on Murray State, 10 yards 0% MTSU +0.6 pts
Q2 1:27 Illegal Shift on Murray State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MTSU +1.2 pts
Q2 0:31 Holding on Middle Tennessee, 5 yards 0% MUR +0.3 pts
Q2 0:23 Holding on Middle Tennessee, 10 yards 0% MUR +0.6 pts
Q3 7:46 False Start on Murray State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MTSU +1.0 pts
Q3 5:40 Pass Interference on Middle Tennessee, 5 yards 0% MUR +0.4 pts
Q4 13:10 Roughing the Passer on Middle Tennessee, 13 yards 0% MUR +1.5 pts
Q4 11:01 Targeting on Middle Tennessee, 4 yards 0% MUR +1.0 pts

When it happened

Middle Tennessee’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Middle Tennessee was ahead in it, below while Murray State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:30 Personal Foul on Murray State, 15 yardsJudgment calls +1% MTSU MTSU: Punt
2 Q1 13:06 Middle Tennessee was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +1% MUR MTSU: Punt
3 Q1 4:28 Holding on Murray State, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +1% MTSU MTSU: Touchdown
4 Q1 0:22 Middle Tennessee converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +1% MTSU MTSU: Turnover on downs
5 Q2 3:34 Middle Tennessee converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +1% MTSU MTSU: End of half
6 Q3 6:41 Murray State converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +1% MUR MUR: Touchdown
7 Q3 0:52 Middle Tennessee converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +1% MTSU MTSU: Touchdown
8 Q4 13:45 Murray State fumbled and Middle Tennessee recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by Middle TennesseeSpecial teams +1% MTSU MUR: End of game

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Murray State 0% · Middle Tennessee 100%

Final margin
Middle Tennessee by 24
Luck in points
5.6 for Middle Tennessee
Luck-adjusted margin
Middle Tennessee by 18.4
Replay with same day's form
Murray State 5% · Middle Tennessee 95% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · Murray State · Middle Tennessee

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