luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2026 · September 4, 2026

Indiana State at Purdue, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?

Purdue beat Indiana State 44–19, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Purdue wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Purdue was a 99% favorite.

Final

Indiana State Sycamores 19
Purdue Boilermakers 44

September 4, 2026 · Ross-Ade Stadium · Closing line: Purdue −35.5

Luck index +1 Purdue about even · −1 Indiana State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Indiana State wins 0, Purdue wins 10.

  1. 1 INST 24 PUR 31
  2. 2 INST 24 PUR 38
  3. 3 INST 28 PUR 45
  4. 4 INST 24 PUR 45
  5. 5 INST 3 PUR 27
  6. 6 INST 6 PUR 34
  7. 7 INST 14 PUR 45
  8. 8 INST 7 PUR 41
  9. 9 INST 0 PUR 38
  10. 10 INST 3 PUR 49

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Indiana State wins 1% of them, Purdue 99%. The line is what actually happened: Purdue by 25.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Indiana State by 17+0.1%
Indiana State by 9–160.1%
Indiana State by 1–80.9%
Level after regulation0.2%
Purdue by 1–84.1%
Purdue by 9–1610.3%
Purdue by 17+84.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

No play in this game swung win probability by luck.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.4 points to Indiana State: the final margin was Purdue by 25, without the luck Purdue by 31.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • J. Echeverria Lozano, 39 yds made · 74% expected
  • S. Lopez, 28 yds made · 87% expected
  • J. Echeverria Lozano, 25 yds made · 91% expected
  • S. Lopez, 47 yds made · 58% expected
  • J. Echeverria Lozano, 23 yds made · 93% expected
  • Extra point missed · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Indiana State 7 for 67 yards, Purdue 8 for 75 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:56 Personal Foul on Indiana State, 15 yards 0% PUR +1.6 pts
Q1 1:43 Holding on Indiana State, 7 yards 0% PUR +1.8 pts
Q2 14:03 Illegal Block on Purdue, 10 yards 0% INST +0.6 pts
Q2 13:19 Holding on Purdue, 10 yards 0% INST +0.6 pts
Q2 12:35 Roughing the Passer on Indiana State, 15 yards 0% PUR +1.6 pts
Q2 12:26 False Start on Purdue, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% INST +0.7 pts
Q2 9:25 False Start on Purdue, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% INST +1.3 pts
Q2 8:12 False Start on Indiana State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PUR +0.6 pts
Q2 6:47 Holding on Indiana State, 10 yards 0% PUR +1.3 pts
Q2 5:01 Holding on Purdue, 10 yards 0% INST +0.6 pts
Q2 3:07 Illegal Formation on Purdue, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% INST +0.3 pts
Q3 7:17 Pass Interference on Purdue, 15 yards 0% PUR +0.7 pts
Q3 5:12 Ineligible Downfield on Indiana State, 5 yards 0% PUR +1.4 pts
Q4 14:04 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Purdue, 15 yards 0% INST +1.6 pts
Q4 13:49 Holding on Indiana State, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% PUR +2.4 pts

When it happened

Purdue’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Purdue was ahead in it, below while Indiana State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:06 J. Echeverria Lozano made a 39-yard field goalKicks · 74% expected for him +0% PUR PUR: Touchdown
2 Q1 8:50 Indiana State converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +0% INST INST: Field goal
3 Q1 4:28 Purdue converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +0% PUR PUR: Touchdown
4 Q1 0:04 Purdue converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +0% PUR PUR: Field goal
5 Q2 7:07 Indiana State converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +0% INST INST: Field goal
6 Q2 3:35 Purdue was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +0% INST PUR: Punt
7 Q4 13:49 Holding on Indiana State, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +0% PUR PUR: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 12:44 Indiana State missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 98% of the time +0% PUR INST: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Indiana State 0% · Purdue 100%

Final margin
Purdue by 25
Luck in points
6.4 for Indiana State
Luck-adjusted margin
Purdue by 31.4
Replay with same day's form
Indiana State 1% · Purdue 99% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · Indiana State · Purdue

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