luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2026 · September 5, 2026

South Dakota State at Northwestern, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?

Northwestern beat South Dakota State 34–18, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Northwestern wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Northwestern was an 82% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 6:46 left): Northwestern converted 3rd & 6, worth 9 points of win probability to Northwestern.

Final

South Dakota State Jackrabbits 18
Northwestern Wildcats 34

September 5, 2026 · Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium · Closing line: Northwestern −14

Luck index +3 Northwestern about even · −3 South Dakota State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. South Dakota State wins 0, Northwestern wins 10.

  1. 1 SDST 24 NU 28
  2. 2 SDST 31 NU 41
  3. 3 SDST 28 NU 42
  4. 4 SDST 10 NU 27
  5. 5 SDST 35 NU 56
  6. 6 SDST 14 NU 38
  7. 7 SDST 21 NU 49
  8. 8 SDST 10 NU 42
  9. 9 SDST 17 NU 55
  10. 10 SDST 3 NU 49

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

South Dakota State wins 3% of them, Northwestern 97%. The line is what actually happened: Northwestern by 16.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
South Dakota State by 17+0.3%
South Dakota State by 9–160.6%
South Dakota State by 1–82.3%
Level after regulation0.4%
Northwestern by 1–87.0%
Northwestern by 9–1614.0%
Northwestern by 17+75.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.7 points to Northwestern: the final margin was Northwestern by 16, without the luck Northwestern by 14.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • T. Alvano, 21 yds made · 93% expected
  • J. Kleather, 36 yds made · 79% expected
  • T. Alvano, 33 yds made · 83% expected
  • T. Alvano, 27 yds made · 90% expected
  • T. Alvano, 26 yds made · 91% expected
  • J. Kleather, 38 yds made · 76% expected
  • T. Alvano, 38 yds missed · 76% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: South Dakota State 5 for 35 yards, Northwestern 9 for 61 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 4:13 Holding on Northwestern, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% SDST +1.8 pts
Q1 2:27 False Start on Northwestern, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SDST +0.6 pts
Q1 0:18 Offside on Northwestern, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SDST +0.5 pts
Q2 15:00 Illegal Substitution on South Dakota State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NU +0.9 pts
Q2 2:28 Ineligible Downfield on South Dakota State, 5 yards +1% NU +0.9 pts
Q2 0:54 False Start on Northwestern, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SDST +0.3 pts
Q2 0:42 Holding on South Dakota State, 10 yards +1% NU +0.4 pts
Q3 14:53 Illegal Block on Northwestern, 10 yards +1% SDST +0.6 pts
Q3 13:24 False Start on Northwestern, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SDST +0.3 pts
Q3 6:22 Holding on South Dakota State, 10 yards +3% NU +1.6 pts
Q4 11:09 Offside on Northwestern, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SDST +0.5 pts
Q4 8:58 Illegal Use of Hands on Northwestern, 7 yards +4% SDST +1.2 pts
Q4 8:39 False Start on South Dakota State, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NU +0.9 pts
Q4 8:22 Pass Interference on Northwestern, 9 yards +6% SDST +1.5 pts

When it happened

Northwestern’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Northwestern was ahead in it, below while South Dakota State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 13:24 Northwestern was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedFalse Start on Northwestern, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +4% SDST NU: Punt
2 Q4 12:16 South Dakota State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +4% SDST SDST: Touchdown
3 Q4 8:58 Illegal Use of Hands on Northwestern, 7 yardsJudgment calls +4% SDST SDST: Touchdown
4 Q4 8:39 False Start on South Dakota State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +3% NU NU: Touchdown
5 Q4 8:22 Pass Interference on Northwestern, 9 yardsJudgment calls +6% SDST SDST: Touchdown
6 Q4 8:16 South Dakota State’s two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +4% NU SDST: Missed field goal
7 Q4 6:46 Northwestern converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +9% NU NU: Touchdown
8 Q4 1:50 South Dakota State converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +4% SDST SDST: Missed field goal

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

South Dakota State 1% · Northwestern 99%

Final margin
Northwestern by 16
Luck in points
1.7 for Northwestern
Luck-adjusted margin
Northwestern by 14.3
Replay with same day's form
South Dakota State 3% · Northwestern 97% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · South Dakota State · Northwestern

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