luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2026 · August 29, 2026

San José State at USC, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?

USC beat San José State 42–26, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, USC wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff USC was a 99% favorite.

Final

San José State Spartans 26
USC Trojans 42

August 29, 2026 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · Closing line: USC −37.5

Luck index +2 USC about even · −2 San José State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. San José State wins 0, USC wins 10.

  1. 1 SJSU 37 USC 42
  2. 2 SJSU 42 USC 55
  3. 3 SJSU 21 USC 38
  4. 4 SJSU 16 USC 37
  5. 5 SJSU 20 USC 44
  6. 6 SJSU 7 USC 35
  7. 7 SJSU 10 USC 42
  8. 8 SJSU 13 USC 49
  9. 9 SJSU 17 USC 56
  10. 10 SJSU 7 USC 53

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

San José State wins 2% of them, USC 98%. The line is what actually happened: USC by 16.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
San José State by 17+0.1%
San José State by 9–160.2%
San José State by 1–81.1%
Level after regulation0.3%
USC by 1–84.7%
USC by 9–169.7%
USC by 17+84.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

No play in this game swung win probability by luck.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.5 points to USC: the final margin was USC by 16, without the luck USC by 14.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: San José State 1 for 15 yards, USC 5 for 34 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:33 Block Below the Waist on San José State, 15 yards 0% USC +1.6 pts
Q2 4:23 Intentional Grounding on USC, 0 yards 0% SJSU 0.0 pts
Q3 13:00 Holding on USC, 10 yards 0% USC +0.6 pts
Q3 10:32 Illegal Substitution on USC, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SJSU +0.3 pts
Q4 5:36 Face Mask on USC, 4 yards 0% SJSU +1.0 pts
Q4 2:00 Pass Interference on USC, 15 yards 0% SJSU +1.6 pts

When it happened

USC’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while USC was ahead in it, below while San José State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:55 USC converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +0% USC USC: Turnover on downs
2 Q1 8:12 San José State was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +0% USC SJSU: Punt
3 Q1 7:33 Block Below the Waist on San José State, 15 yardsJudgment calls +0% USC USC: Turnover on downs
4 Q1 4:33 USC was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +0% SJSU USC: Turnover on downs
5 Q1 3:59 USC was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +0% SJSU USC: Touchdown
6 Q2 13:15 San José State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +0% SJSU SJSU: Turnover on downs
7 Q2 9:47 San José State converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +0% SJSU SJSU: Turnover on downs
8 Q2 8:21 San José State was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +0% USC SJSU: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

San José State 0% · USC 100%

Final margin
USC by 16
Luck in points
1.5 for USC
Luck-adjusted margin
USC by 14.5
Replay with same day's form
San José State 2% · USC 98% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

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