Week 1 2026 · September 6, 2026
Wisconsin vs Notre Dame, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?
Notre Dame beat Wisconsin 41–13, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 8 of 10.
Before kickoff Notre Dame was a 91% favorite.
Final
 Wisconsin Badgers | 13 |
|---|---|
 Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 41 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +21 Notre Dame about even · −21 Wisconsin
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Wisconsin wins 2, Notre Dame wins 8.
- 1 WIS 13 ND 0
- 2 WIS 20 ND 17
- 3 WIS 20 ND 23
- 4 WIS 16 ND 21
- 5 WIS 13 ND 21
- 6 WIS 9 ND 21
- 7 WIS 10 ND 24
- 8 WIS 17 ND 35
- 9 WIS 17 ND 41
- 10 WIS 0 ND 29
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Wisconsin wins 21% of them, Notre Dame 79%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Notre Dame by 28.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Wisconsin by 17+ | 1.7% |
| Wisconsin by 9–16 | 4.8% |
| Wisconsin by 1–8 | 14.5% |
| Level after regulation | 0.8% |
| Notre Dame by 1–8 | 23.1% |
| Notre Dame by 9–16 | 25.0% |
| Notre Dame by 17+ | 30.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- G. Lahm, 27 yds made · 89% expected
- S. Porath, 52 yds made · 50% expected
- S. Porath, 26 yds made · 91% expected
- G. Lahm, 36 yds made · 79% expected
Penalties: Wisconsin 6 for 43 yards, Notre Dame 4 for 41 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:43 | False Start on Notre Dame, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% WIS +0.7 pts |
| Q1 12:12 | Offside on Wisconsin, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ND +0.8 pts |
| Q1 1:15 | Unnecessary Roughness on Wisconsin, 5 yards | +1% ND +1.0 pts |
| Q2 13:04 | Personal Foul on Notre Dame, 15 yards | +1% WIS +1.6 pts |
| Q2 4:20 | Holding on Notre Dame, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +2% WIS +1.7 pts |
| Q2 2:22 | Holding on Wisconsin, 10 yards | +1% ND +0.6 pts |
| Q2 0:55 | Delay of Game on Wisconsin, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ND +0.2 pts |
| Q2 0:46 | Personal Foul on Notre Dame, 11 yards | +1% WIS +0.7 pts |
| Q3 10:48 | Illegal Substitution on Wisconsin, 3 yards · pre-snap | 0% ND +0.2 pts |
| Q4 5:18 | Pass Interference on Wisconsin, 15 yards | 0% ND +2.1 pts |
When it happened
Notre Dame’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 10:02 | Wisconsin converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +2% WIS | WIS: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 4:13 | Notre Dame was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 67% expected | +1% WIS | ND: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 3:56 | Notre Dame converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expected | +1% ND | ND: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 2:07 | Notre Dame was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +2% WIS | ND: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 13:04 | Personal Foul on Notre Dame, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +1% WIS | WIS: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 8:56 | Notre Dame was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +1% WIS | ND: Field goal |
| 7 | Q2 6:42 | Wisconsin converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +3% WIS | WIS: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 4:20 | Holding on Notre Dame, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +2% WIS | WIS: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Wisconsin 0% · Notre Dame 100%
- Final margin
- Notre Dame by 28
- Luck in points
- 0.7 for Notre Dame
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Notre Dame by 27.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Wisconsin 21% · Notre Dame 79% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · 
Wisconsin · 
Notre Dame
More from Week 1 2026
- Toledo at Michigan State MSU 30–20 · replay 49% for the winner
- Massachusetts at Rutgers MASS 37–21 · replay 74% for the winner
- Western Michigan at Michigan MICH 13–12 · replay 86% for the winner
- Washington State at Washington WASH 24–10 · replay 89% for the winner
- Boise State at Oregon ORE 34–27 · replay 91% for the winner
- North Texas at Indiana IU 52–16 · replay 92% for the winner
- Ohio at Nebraska NEB 49–21 · replay 93% for the winner
- UAB at Illinois ILL 42–23 · replay 95% for the winner
- UCLA at California UCLA 45–24 · replay 96% for the winner
- South Dakota State at Northwestern NU 34–18 · replay 97% for the winner
- San José State at USC USC 42–26 · replay 98% for the winner
- Indiana State at Purdue PUR 44–19 · replay 99% for the winner