luckadjusted
CFB Week 10 · 2026

2026 college football season · November 3, 2026–November 7, 2026

Week 10 2026: upsets, and who deserved to win

19 upsets in Week 10 2026. The biggest: UL Monroe beat Arkansas State 19–17 as 17% underdogs, a coin flip on the day. 6 of 63 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest heist: Utah beat BYU 28–20 in a game it wins 26% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

Week 10 2026 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 9 of 19 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form (our postgame win expectancy).

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
UL Monroe 19–17 @ Arkansas State 17% 49% Coin flip
Michigan State 15–6 @ Michigan 18% 54% Coin flip
Oregon 41–28 @ Ohio State 31% 38% Lucky
Florida Atlantic 60–29 vs UTSA 33% 94% Deserved
Buffalo 34–31 @ Miami (OH) 34% 62% Deserved
Old Dominion 21–8 @ Coastal Carolina 34% 75% Deserved
Georgia State 39–23 @ App State 34% 49% Coin flip
Alabama 31–13 @ LSU 35% 33% Lucky
UCF 33–32 @ Kansas 35% 44% Coin flip
Maryland 34–29 @ Purdue 36% 65% Deserved
Illinois 24–13 vs Nebraska 39% 50% Coin flip
Oklahoma 23–7 @ Florida 40% 73% Deserved
Texas State 42–21 @ Oregon State 40% 99% Deserved
Air Force 24–21 @ Army 41% 92% Deserved
Vanderbilt 25–23 @ Mississippi State 42% 42% Coin flip
Wyoming 41–35 @ UNLV 42% 98% Deserved
Penn State 28–25 @ Washington 44% 66% Deserved
Kennesaw State 42–40 vs Delaware 46% 37% Lucky
Middle Tennessee 51–42 vs Western Kentucky 46% 50% Coin flip

Every game, luck first

The games luck decided most come first. The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 10 luck ranking

Every FBS team’s luck index: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Utah W 28–20 vs BYU 26% +74
2 San José State W 30–19 vs Northern Illinois 28% +72
3 Baylor W 42–31 vs Iowa State 31% +69
4 Alabama W 31–13 @ LSU 33% +67
5 Kennesaw State W 42–40 vs Delaware 37% +63
6 Oregon W 41–28 @ Ohio State 38% +62
7 Vanderbilt W 25–23 @ Mississippi State 42% +58
8 East Carolina W 20–17 vs South Florida 44% +56
9 UCF W 33–32 @ Kansas 44% +56
10 Clemson W 18–13 @ Syracuse 47% +53
11 Georgia State W 39–23 @ App State 49% +51
12 UL Monroe W 19–17 @ Arkansas State 49% +51
13 Illinois W 24–13 vs Nebraska 50% +50
14 Middle Tennessee W 51–42 vs Western Kentucky 50% +50
15 Hawai'i W 17–14 @ UTEP 51% +49
16 Michigan State W 15–6 @ Michigan 54% +46
17 Texas W 34–20 @ Missouri 58% +42
18 Auburn W 26–23 vs Arkansas 59% +41
19 Buffalo W 34–31 @ Miami (OH) 62% +38
20 Arizona State W 20–10 vs Colorado 63% +37
21 Florida State W 31–24 @ Boston College 63% +37
22 Maryland W 34–29 @ Purdue 65% +35
23 North Carolina W 38–21 @ UConn 65% +35
24 Penn State W 28–25 @ Washington 66% +34
25 Liberty W 30–14 @ New Mexico State 67% +33
26 Ohio W 28–20 @ Akron 67% +33
27 Arizona W 29–28 vs TCU 69% +31
28 Iowa W 24–10 @ Northwestern 70% +30
29 South Carolina W 17–9 vs Texas A&M 71% +29
30 Oklahoma W 23–7 @ Florida 73% +27
31 Massachusetts W 31–30 vs Ball State 75% +26
32 Old Dominion W 21–8 @ Coastal Carolina 75% +25
33 Notre Dame W 31–24 vs Miami 76% +24
34 Texas Tech W 53–48 vs West Virginia 76% +24
35 North Texas W 52–23 vs Rice 83% +17
36 Utah State W 17–10 vs Fresno State 84% +16
37 Louisiana W 28–26 vs South Alabama 86% +14
38 Air Force W 24–21 @ Army 92% +8
39 Louisiana Tech W 41–17 @ Troy 92% +8
40 Florida International W 23–20 vs Missouri State 93% +7
41 Houston W 31–24 vs Cincinnati 93% +7
42 Tennessee W 34–6 vs Kentucky 93% +7
43 Florida Atlantic W 60–29 vs UTSA 94% +6
44 Georgia Southern W 49–13 vs Marshall 95% +5
45 Toledo W 20–17 @ Sacramento State 95% +5
46 UCLA W 34–20 @ Minnesota 96% +4
47 Navy W 42–35 vs Temple 96% +4
48 Wisconsin W 31–10 vs Rutgers 96% +4
49 SMU W 51–28 vs Virginia Tech 97% +3
50 Jacksonville State W 47–14 vs Sam Houston 97% +3
51 UAB W 23–12 vs Charlotte 97% +3
52 Wyoming W 41–35 @ UNLV 98% +2
53 Louisville W 44–17 @ Georgia Tech 99% +1
54 Texas State W 42–21 @ Oregon State 99% +1
55 Central Michigan W 35–7 vs Eastern Michigan 99% +1
56 Georgia W 42–7 @ Ole Miss 99% +1
57 James Madison W 54–23 @ Southern Miss 99% +1
58 Boise State W 64–38 @ Colorado State 99% +1
59 Duke W 41–3 @ NC State 100% 0
60 New Mexico W 31–3 @ Nevada 100% 0
61 Oklahoma State W 66–28 @ Kansas State 100% 0
62 Tulsa W 60–10 @ Tulane 100% 0
63 Wake Forest W 77–0 vs Merrimack 100% 0
64 Tulane L 10–60 vs Tulsa 0% 0
65 Kansas State L 28–66 vs Oklahoma State 0% 0
66 Nevada L 3–31 vs New Mexico 0% 0
67 NC State L 3–41 vs Duke 0% 0
68 Colorado State L 38–64 vs Boise State 1% −1
69 Southern Miss L 23–54 vs James Madison 1% −1
70 Ole Miss L 7–42 vs Georgia 1% −1
71 Eastern Michigan L 7–35 vs Central Michigan 1% −1
72 Oregon State L 21–42 vs Texas State 1% −1
73 Georgia Tech L 17–44 vs Louisville 1% −1
74 UNLV L 35–41 vs Wyoming 2% −2
75 Charlotte L 12–23 @ UAB 3% −3
76 Sam Houston L 14–47 @ Jacksonville State 3% −3
77 Virginia Tech L 28–51 @ SMU 3% −3
78 Rutgers L 10–31 @ Wisconsin 4% −4
79 Temple L 35–42 @ Navy 4% −4
80 Minnesota L 20–34 vs UCLA 4% −4
81 Sacramento State L 17–20 vs Toledo 5% −5
82 Marshall L 13–49 @ Georgia Southern 5% −5
83 UTSA L 29–60 @ Florida Atlantic 6% −6
84 Kentucky L 6–34 @ Tennessee 7% −7
85 Cincinnati L 24–31 @ Houston 7% −7
86 Missouri State L 20–23 @ Florida International 7% −7
87 Troy L 17–41 vs Louisiana Tech 8% −8
88 Army L 21–24 vs Air Force 8% −8
89 South Alabama L 26–28 @ Louisiana 14% −14
90 Fresno State L 10–17 @ Utah State 16% −16
91 Rice L 23–52 @ North Texas 17% −17
92 West Virginia L 48–53 @ Texas Tech 24% −24
93 Miami L 24–31 @ Notre Dame 24% −24
94 Coastal Carolina L 8–21 vs Old Dominion 25% −25
95 Ball State L 30–31 @ Massachusetts 26% −26
96 Florida L 7–23 vs Oklahoma 27% −27
97 Texas A&M L 9–17 @ South Carolina 29% −29
98 Northwestern L 10–24 vs Iowa 30% −30
99 TCU L 28–29 @ Arizona 31% −31
100 Akron L 20–28 vs Ohio 33% −33
101 New Mexico State L 14–30 vs Liberty 33% −33
102 Washington L 25–28 vs Penn State 34% −34
103 UConn L 21–38 vs North Carolina 35% −35
104 Purdue L 29–34 vs Maryland 35% −35
105 Boston College L 24–31 vs Florida State 37% −37
106 Colorado L 10–20 @ Arizona State 37% −37
107 Miami (OH) L 31–34 vs Buffalo 38% −38
108 Arkansas L 23–26 @ Auburn 41% −41
109 Missouri L 20–34 vs Texas 42% −42
110 Michigan L 6–15 vs Michigan State 46% −46
111 UTEP L 14–17 vs Hawai'i 49% −49
112 Western Kentucky L 42–51 @ Middle Tennessee 50% −50
113 Nebraska L 13–24 @ Illinois 50% −50
114 Arkansas State L 17–19 vs UL Monroe 51% −51
115 App State L 23–39 vs Georgia State 51% −51
116 Syracuse L 13–18 vs Clemson 53% −53
117 Kansas L 32–33 vs UCF 56% −56
118 South Florida L 17–20 @ East Carolina 56% −56
119 Mississippi State L 23–25 vs Vanderbilt 58% −58
120 Ohio State L 28–41 vs Oregon 62% −62
121 Delaware L 40–42 @ Kennesaw State 63% −63
122 LSU L 13–31 vs Alabama 67% −67
123 Iowa State L 31–42 @ Baylor 69% −69
124 Northern Illinois L 19–30 @ San José State 72% −72
125 BYU L 20–28 @ Utah 74% −74