MAC · 2026 season, in progress

Massachusetts Minutemen: luck and expected wins

Massachusetts is 4–0 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 3.7 wins. Luck added 0.3: the 37th-luckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–0.

2026, game by game

How often Massachusetts wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Rutgers	W 37–21	74%	+26
Week 2	vs Sacred Heart	W 37–10	100%	0
Week 3	vs Stonehill	W 36–14	97%	+3
Week 4	@ Sacramento State	W 35–6	94%	+6

Wk 1 +26 @ RUTG

Wk 2 0 vs SHU

Wk 3 +3 vs STO

Wk 4 +6 @ SAC

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Massachusetts win chance
Week 5 · Oct 3	vs Eastern Michigan	Massachusetts by 10.3	74%
Week 6 · Oct 10	vs Miami (OH)	Miami (OH) by 2.0	45%
Week 7 · Oct 17	at Buffalo	Massachusetts by 6.2	65%
Week 8 · Oct 23	at UConn	UConn by 12.1	23%
Week 10 · Nov 4	vs Ball State	Massachusetts by 12.3	77%
Week 11 · Nov 11	at Toledo	Toledo by 19.6	12%
Week 12 · Nov 18	vs Akron	Massachusetts by 9.7	72%
Week 13 · Nov 28	at Bowling Green	Massachusetts by 5.1	62%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Massachusetts’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
3rd & 4th downs	+0.20	−0.8
Kicks	+0.14	+2.4
Fumble bounces	+0.12	+8.0

Luckiest wins

Wins Massachusetts takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2026 Week 1	@ Rutgers	W 37–21	74%	+26
2026 Week 4	@ Sacramento State	W 35–6	94%	+6
2026 Week 3	vs Stonehill	W 36–14	97%	+3
2026 Week 2	vs Sacred Heart	W 37–10	100%	0

Unluckiest losses

Losses Massachusetts would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 2	vs Bryant	L 26–27	90%	−90
2025 Week 8	vs Buffalo	L 21–28	57%	−57
2025 Week 1	vs Temple	L 10–42	9%	−9
2025 Week 6	vs Western Michigan	L 3–21	6%	−6
2025 Week 13	@ Ohio	L 14–42	3%	−3

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	0–12	1.7	−1.7	0–2	–

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Temple	L 10–42	9%	−9
Week 2	vs Bryant	L 26–27	90%	−90
Week 3	@ Iowa	L 7–47	1%	−1
Week 5	@ Missouri	L 6–42	0%	0
Week 6	vs Western Michigan	L 3–21	6%	−6
Week 7	@ Kent State	L 6–42	0%	0
Week 8	vs Buffalo	L 21–28	57%	−57
Week 9	@ Central Michigan	L 13–38	0%	0
Week 11	@ Akron	L 10–44	0%	0
Week 12	vs Northern Illinois	L 3–45	1%	−1
Week 13	@ Ohio	L 14–42	3%	−3
Week 14	vs Bowling Green	L 14–45	2%	−2