Week 13 2025 · November 18, 2025
Massachusetts at Ohio, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?
Ohio beat Massachusetts 42–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Ohio wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Ohio was a 99% favorite.
Final
 Massachusetts Minutemen | 14 |
|---|---|
 Ohio Bobcats | 42 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +3 Ohio about even · −3 Massachusetts
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Massachusetts wins 0, Ohio wins 10.
- 1 MASS 21 OHIO 24
- 2 MASS 13 OHIO 20
- 3 MASS 14 OHIO 26
- 4 MASS 20 OHIO 34
- 5 MASS 3 OHIO 21
- 6 MASS 13 OHIO 34
- 7 MASS 10 OHIO 34
- 8 MASS 0 OHIO 29
- 9 MASS 6 OHIO 41
- 10 MASS 7 OHIO 49
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Massachusetts wins 3% of them, Ohio 97%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ohio by 28.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Massachusetts by 17+ | 0.1% |
| Massachusetts by 9–16 | 0.4% |
| Massachusetts by 1–8 | 2.4% |
| Level after regulation | 0.6% |
| Ohio by 1–8 | 8.6% |
| Ohio by 9–16 | 15.0% |
| Ohio by 17+ | 73.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- D. Morris, 55 yds missed · 46% expected
- D. Morris, 47 yds missed · 59% expected
Penalties: Massachusetts 2 for 20 yards, Ohio 5 for 60 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | Roughing the Passer on Ohio, 15 yards | +1% MASS +3.2 pts |
| Q1 12:05 | Personal Foul on Massachusetts, 15 yards | +1% OHIO +1.6 pts |
| Q2 11:35 | Holding on Ohio, 10 yards | 0% MASS +1.1 pts |
| Q2 0:53 | False Start on Ohio, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MASS +0.2 pts |
| Q2 0:20 | Unnecessary Roughness on Ohio, 15 yards, wiping out the play | 0% MASS +3.9 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Ohio, 15 yards | 0% MASS +1.6 pts |
| Q4 6:46 | False Start on Massachusetts, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% OHIO +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Ohio’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 15:00 | Roughing the Passer on Ohio, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +1% MASS | MASS: End of half |
| 2 | Q1 6:03 | Massachusetts converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 40% expectedMassachusetts converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 40% expectedMassachusetts was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +1% MASS | MASS: Turnover |
| 3 | Q1 0:56 | Massachusetts fumbled and Ohio recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +1% OHIO | MASS: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 15:00 | Ohio was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 59% expected | +1% MASS | OHIO: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q2 13:30 | Ohio was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 58% expectedMassachusetts was stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 17% expected | +1% MASS | OHIO: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 13:23 | Massachusetts converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedMassachusetts converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedOhio fumbled and Massachusetts recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +1% MASS | MASS: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 8:56 | Ohio was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +1% MASS | OHIO: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 15:00 | Massachusetts converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedMassachusetts converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 41% expectedMassachusetts was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedUnsportsmanlike Conduct on Ohio, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +1% MASS | MASS: Turnover on downs |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Massachusetts 0% · Ohio 100%
- Final margin
- Ohio by 28
- Luck in points
- 0.8 for Ohio
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Ohio by 27.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Massachusetts 3% · Ohio 97% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · 
Massachusetts · 
Ohio
More from Week 13 2025
- Akron at Bowling Green AKR 19–16 · replay 64% for the winner
- Central Michigan at Kent State CMU 28–16 · replay 65% for the winner
- Miami (OH) at Buffalo M-OH 37–20 · replay 80% for the winner
- Western Michigan at Northern Illinois WMU 35–19 · replay 100% for the winner
- Ball State at Toledo TOL 38–9 · replay 100% for the winner
- Marshall at App State APP 26–24 · replay 13% for the winner
- Duke at North Carolina DUKE 32–25 · replay 13% for the winner
- Louisiana at Arkansas State UL 34–30 · replay 16% for the winner
- Florida State at NC State NCSU 21–11 · replay 18% for the winner
- Missouri State at Kennesaw State KENN 41–34 · replay 23% for the winner
- UConn at Florida Atlantic CONN 48–45 · replay 25% for the winner
- Utah State at Fresno State USU 28–17 · replay 30% for the winner