luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 13 2025 · November 19, 2025

Central Michigan at Kent State, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?

Central Michigan beat Kent State 28–16, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 6 of 10.

Before kickoff Central Michigan was a 69% favorite.

Final

Central Michigan Chippewas 28
Kent State Golden Flashes 16

November 19, 2025 · Dix Stadium · Closing line: Central Michigan −7.5

Luck index +35 Central Michigan lucky · −35 Kent State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Central Michigan wins 6, Kent State wins 4.

  1. 1 CMU 31 KENT 7
  2. 2 CMU 24 KENT 7
  3. 3 CMU 13 KENT 0
  4. 4 CMU 10 KENT 0
  5. 5 CMU 20 KENT 14
  6. 6 CMU 13 KENT 10
  7. 7 CMU 7 KENT 10
  8. 8 CMU 14 KENT 20
  9. 9 CMU 7 KENT 17
  10. 10 CMU 10 KENT 28

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Central Michigan wins 65% of them, Kent State 35%, counting the 8% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Central Michigan by 12.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Central Michigan by 17+19.8%
Central Michigan by 9–1620.7%
Central Michigan by 1–821.7%
Level after regulation8.1%
Kent State by 1–817.2%
Kent State by 9–168.7%
Kent State by 17+3.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.9 points to Central Michigan: the final margin was Central Michigan by 12, without the luck Central Michigan by 10.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • W. Hryszko, 36 yds made · 78% expected
  • W. Hryszko, 36 yds missed · 78% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Central Michigan 5 for 29 yards, Kent State 4 for 40 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:54 Holding on Kent State, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% CMU +2.5 pts
Q1 12:13 False Start on Central Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% KENT +0.6 pts
Q2 7:25 Holding on Kent State, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% CMU +1.1 pts
Q2 0:39 Unnecessary Roughness on Kent State, 15 yards +2% CMU +1.6 pts
Q3 5:07 Illegal Formation on Kent State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CMU +0.3 pts
Q3 5:07 False Start on Central Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% KENT +0.6 pts
Q4 11:50 False Start on Central Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% KENT +0.7 pts
Q4 10:38 False Start on Central Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% KENT +0.7 pts
Q4 1:41 Holding on Central Michigan, 9 yards 0% KENT +0.7 pts

When it happened

Kent State’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Kent State was ahead in it, below while Central Michigan was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:54 Holding on Kent State, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +4% CMU CMU: Touchdown
2 Q1 6:17 Central Michigan converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +4% CMU CMU: Touchdown
3 Q2 14:59 Kent State fumbled and Central Michigan recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +3% CMU KENT: Punt
4 Q2 9:35 Kent State converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +3% KENT KENT: Punt
5 Q4 11:50 W. Hryszko missed a 36-yard field goalKicks · 78% expected for himFalse Start on Central Michigan, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +4% CMU KENT: Turnover on downs
6 Q4 10:38 Kent State’s two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 46% expectedFalse Start on Central Michigan, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsReturn touchdown by Kent StateSpecial teams +6% KENT KENT: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 9:12 Central Michigan converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +3% CMU CMU: Touchdown
8 Q4 5:51 Central Michigan converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +4% CMU CMU: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Central Michigan 94% · Kent State 6%

Final margin
Central Michigan by 12
Luck in points
1.9 for Central Michigan
Luck-adjusted margin
Central Michigan by 10.1
Replay with same day's form
Central Michigan 65% · Kent State 35% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · Central Michigan · Kent State

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