Week 13 2025 · November 22, 2025
Utah State at Fresno State, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?
Utah State beat Fresno State 28–17, but the replays lean toward Fresno State: it takes 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 37 points of win probability to Utah State.
Before kickoff Fresno State was a 54% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 15:00 left): Holding on Fresno State, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 31 points of win probability to Utah State.
Final
 Utah State Aggies | 28 |
|---|---|
 Fresno State Bulldogs | 17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +70 Utah State very lucky · −70 Fresno State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Utah State wins 3, Fresno State wins 7.
- 1 USU 51 FRES 27
- 2 USU 37 FRES 24
- 3 USU 51 FRES 46
- 4 USU 31 FRES 33
- 5 USU 20 FRES 27
- 6 USU 24 FRES 34
- 7 USU 30 FRES 45
- 8 USU 31 FRES 52
- 9 USU 23 FRES 49
- 10 USU 20 FRES 58
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Utah State wins 30% of them, Fresno State 70%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Utah State by 11.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Utah State by 17+ | 9.3% |
| Utah State by 9–16 | 9.4% |
| Utah State by 1–8 | 11.1% |
| Level after regulation | 1.6% |
| Fresno State by 1–8 | 18.6% |
| Fresno State by 9–16 | 15.1% |
| Fresno State by 17+ | 35.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- D. Lynch, 30 yds made · 86% expected
- T. Rinker, 46 yds missed · 62% expected
Penalties: Utah State 7 for 40 yards, Fresno State 10 for 93 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | False Start on Utah State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% FRES +0.6 pts |
| Q1 9:31 | Delay of Game on Fresno State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% USU +1.4 pts |
| Q1 5:32 | False Start on Utah State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% FRES +0.7 pts |
| Q1 0:41 | Holding on Fresno State, 10 yards | +3% USU +1.3 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | Holding on Fresno State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +31% USU +6.5 pts |
| Q2 13:26 | False Start on Utah State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% FRES +0.7 pts |
| Q3 9:30 | Holding on Utah State, 10 yards | +6% FRES +1.8 pts |
| Q3 9:20 | False Start on Utah State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% FRES +0.5 pts |
| Q3 4:19 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Fresno State, 15 yards | +4% USU +1.3 pts |
| Q4 14:21 | False Start on Utah State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +19% FRES +4.8 pts |
| Q4 13:51 | False Start on Utah State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% FRES +0.6 pts |
| Q4 13:46 | Offside on Fresno State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% USU +0.3 pts |
| Q4 12:01 | Face Mask on Fresno State, 15 yards | +5% USU +1.4 pts |
| Q4 6:46 | Pass Interference on Fresno State, 15 yards | +3% USU +0.8 pts |
| Q4 5:58 | Illegal Block on Fresno State, 8 yards | +1% USU +0.5 pts |
| Q4 1:55 | Offside on Fresno State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% USU +0.4 pts |
| Q4 0:48 | Illegal Substitution on Fresno State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% USU +1.6 pts |
When it happened
Fresno State’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 79%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 0:30 | Fresno State was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +20% USU | FRES: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 15:00 | Holding on Fresno State, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +31% USU | USU: Punt |
| 3 | Q3 6:24 | Utah State converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +8% USU | USU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 14:52 | Utah State converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +7% USU | USU: End of game |
| 5 | Q4 14:21 | False Start on Utah State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +19% FRES | FRES: End of game |
| 6 | Q4 13:08 | Fresno State was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +9% USU | FRES: End of game |
| 7 | Q4 12:14 | Utah State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +9% USU | USU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 9:16 | Fresno State was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected | +6% USU | FRES: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Utah State 90% · Fresno State 10%
- Final margin
- Utah State by 11
- Luck in points
- 0.1 for Fresno State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Utah State by 11.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Utah State 30% · Fresno State 70% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · 
Utah State · 
Fresno State
More from Week 13 2025
- San José State at San Diego State SDSU 25–3 · replay 77% for the winner
- Nevada at Wyoming NEV 13–7 · replay 85% for the winner
- New Mexico at Air Force UNM 20–3 · replay 90% for the winner
- Colorado State at Boise State BOIS 49–21 · replay 96% for the winner
- Hawai'i at UNLV UNLV 38–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Marshall at App State APP 26–24 · replay 13% for the winner
- Duke at North Carolina DUKE 32–25 · replay 13% for the winner
- Louisiana at Arkansas State UL 34–30 · replay 16% for the winner
- Florida State at NC State NCSU 21–11 · replay 18% for the winner
- Missouri State at Kennesaw State KENN 41–34 · replay 23% for the winner
- UConn at Florida Atlantic CONN 48–45 · replay 25% for the winner
- BYU at Cincinnati BYU 26–14 · replay 36% for the winner