Week 13 2025 · November 22, 2025
Colorado State at Boise State, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?
Boise State beat Colorado State 49–21, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Boise State wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Boise State was an 87% favorite.
Final
 Colorado State Rams | 21 |
|---|---|
 Boise State Broncos | 49 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +4 Boise State about even · −4 Colorado State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Colorado State wins 0, Boise State wins 10.
- 1 CSU 31 BOIS 35
- 2 CSU 17 BOIS 27
- 3 CSU 24 BOIS 38
- 4 CSU 12 BOIS 31
- 5 CSU 14 BOIS 38
- 6 CSU 17 BOIS 45
- 7 CSU 10 BOIS 41
- 8 CSU 20 BOIS 55
- 9 CSU 7 BOIS 49
- 10 CSU 13 BOIS 63
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Colorado State wins 4% of them, Boise State 96%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Boise State by 28.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Colorado State by 17+ | 0.3% |
| Colorado State by 9–16 | 0.7% |
| Colorado State by 1–8 | 1.9% |
| Level after regulation | 0.7% |
| Boise State by 1–8 | 7.4% |
| Boise State by 9–16 | 11.2% |
| Boise State by 17+ | 77.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Boomer, 27 yds made · 88% expected
- C. Boomer, 32 yds made · 83% expected
Penalties: Colorado State 6 for 80 yards, Boise State 9 for 95 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 7:51 | Face Mask on Boise State, 15 yards | +1% CSU +1.5 pts |
| Q1 6:19 | Roughing the Passer on Boise State, 15 yards | +2% CSU +1.6 pts |
| Q2 11:28 | Face Mask on Boise State, 15 yards | +1% CSU +0.8 pts |
| Q2 10:28 | Holding on Boise State, 10 yards | +2% CSU +1.8 pts |
| Q2 5:46 | Offside on Colorado State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BOIS +0.5 pts |
| Q2 4:30 | False Start on Boise State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CSU +0.8 pts |
| Q2 0:25 | Pass Interference on Colorado State, 15 yards | 0% BOIS +0.3 pts |
| Q3 13:57 | Pass Interference on Boise State, 15 yards | 0% CSU +1.4 pts |
| Q3 10:53 | Illegal Motion on Boise State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BOIS +0.3 pts |
| Q3 7:28 | Delay of Game on Boise State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CSU +0.5 pts |
| Q3 1:11 | Personal Foul on Colorado State, 15 yards | 0% BOIS +1.8 pts |
| Q4 11:09 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Colorado State, 15 yards | 0% BOIS +1.6 pts |
| Q4 5:22 | Chop Block on Colorado State, 15 yards | 0% BOIS +1.6 pts |
| Q4 2:04 | Holding on Boise State, 10 yards | 0% CSU +1.3 pts |
| Q4 1:57 | Pass Interference on Colorado State, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +2% BOIS +2.6 pts |
When it happened
Boise State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:53 | Boise State converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +2% BOIS | BOIS: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 8:55 | Boise State converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +2% BOIS | BOIS: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 6:19 | Roughing the Passer on Boise State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +1% CSU | CSU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 4:12 | Boise State was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 61% expected | +3% CSU | BOIS: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 2:11 | Boise State fumbled and Colorado State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +3% CSU | BOIS: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q1 1:20 | Colorado State was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +2% BOIS | CSU: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 10:28 | Holding on Boise State, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +2% CSU | CSU: Turnover |
| 8 | Q4 1:57 | Pass Interference on Colorado State, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +2% BOIS | BOIS: End of game |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Colorado State 0% · Boise State 100%
- Final margin
- Boise State by 28
- Luck in points
- 5.3 for Boise State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Boise State by 22.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Colorado State 4% · Boise State 96% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · 
Colorado State · 
Boise State
More from Week 13 2025
- Utah State at Fresno State USU 28–17 · replay 30% for the winner
- San José State at San Diego State SDSU 25–3 · replay 77% for the winner
- Nevada at Wyoming NEV 13–7 · replay 85% for the winner
- New Mexico at Air Force UNM 20–3 · replay 90% for the winner
- Hawai'i at UNLV UNLV 38–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Marshall at App State APP 26–24 · replay 13% for the winner
- Duke at North Carolina DUKE 32–25 · replay 13% for the winner
- Louisiana at Arkansas State UL 34–30 · replay 16% for the winner
- Florida State at NC State NCSU 21–11 · replay 18% for the winner
- Missouri State at Kennesaw State KENN 41–34 · replay 23% for the winner
- UConn at Florida Atlantic CONN 48–45 · replay 25% for the winner
- BYU at Cincinnati BYU 26–14 · replay 36% for the winner