Week 13 2025 · November 22, 2025
BYU at Cincinnati, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?
BYU beat Cincinnati 26–14, but the replays lean toward Cincinnati: it takes 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: kicks alone were worth 19 points of win probability to BYU.
Before kickoff BYU was a 56% favorite.
Final
 BYU Cougars | 26 |
|---|---|
 Cincinnati Bearcats | 14 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +64 BYU very lucky · −64 Cincinnati
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. BYU wins 4, Cincinnati wins 6.
- 1 BYU 27 CIN 7
- 2 BYU 21 CIN 10
- 3 BYU 21 CIN 14
- 4 BYU 17 CIN 14
- 5 BYU 14 CIN 17
- 6 BYU 17 CIN 21
- 7 BYU 14 CIN 21
- 8 BYU 13 CIN 24
- 9 BYU 7 CIN 24
- 10 BYU 10 CIN 35
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
BYU wins 36% of them, Cincinnati 64%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: BYU by 12.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| BYU by 17+ | 6.8% |
| BYU by 9–16 | 9.0% |
| BYU by 1–8 | 16.3% |
| Level after regulation | 5.2% |
| Cincinnati by 1–8 | 24.1% |
| Cincinnati by 9–16 | 19.4% |
| Cincinnati by 17+ | 19.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- S. Rusnak, 42 yds missed · 71% expected
- W. Ferrin, 31 yds made · 91% expected
- S. Rusnak, 40 yds missed · 74% expected
- S. Rusnak, 48 yds missed · 58% expected
- W. Ferrin, 32 yds made · 90% expected
Penalties: BYU 3 for 21 yards, Cincinnati 5 for 40 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:42 | False Start on BYU, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CIN +1.0 pts |
| Q2 8:22 | Holding on BYU, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +2% CIN +1.2 pts |
| Q2 2:19 | False Start on BYU, 6 yards · pre-snap | +3% CIN +1.1 pts |
| Q3 11:10 | Face Mask on Cincinnati, 15 yards | +4% BYU +1.6 pts |
| Q3 6:57 | False Start on Cincinnati, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% BYU +0.7 pts |
| Q3 3:49 | Offside on Cincinnati, 5 yards · pre-snap | +6% BYU +3.2 pts |
| Q4 4:41 | False Start on Cincinnati, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BYU +0.4 pts |
| Q4 0:51 | Holding on Cincinnati, 10 yards | +1% BYU +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Cincinnati’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:23 | BYU converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +5% BYU | BYU: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 14:52 | Cincinnati was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected | +5% BYU | CIN: Missed field goal |
| 3 | Q2 11:37 | S. Rusnak missed a 42-yard field goalKicks · 71% expected for him | +6% BYU | CIN: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 3:58 | BYU converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +5% BYU | BYU: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 0:07 | S. Rusnak missed a 40-yard field goalKicks · 74% expected for him | +7% BYU | CIN: Turnover |
| 6 | Q3 11:10 | Face Mask on Cincinnati, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +4% BYU | BYU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 5:16 | S. Rusnak missed a 48-yard field goalKicks · 58% expected for him, 2 of 2 from 45+ before | +5% BYU | CIN: Turnover |
| 8 | Q3 3:49 | Offside on Cincinnati, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +6% BYU | BYU: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
BYU 38% · Cincinnati 62%
- Final margin
- BYU by 12
- Luck in points
- 14.0 for BYU
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Cincinnati by 2.0
- Replay with same day's form
- BYU 36% · Cincinnati 64% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · 
BYU · 
Cincinnati
More from Week 13 2025
- Kansas at Iowa State ISU 38–14 · replay 49% for the winner
- Kansas State at Utah UTAH 51–47 · replay 52% for the winner
- TCU at Houston TCU 17–14 · replay 75% for the winner
- Oklahoma State at UCF UCF 17–14 · replay 92% for the winner
- Baylor at Arizona ARIZ 41–17 · replay 96% for the winner
- Arizona State at Colorado ASU 42–17 · replay 98% for the winner
- Marshall at App State APP 26–24 · replay 13% for the winner
- Duke at North Carolina DUKE 32–25 · replay 13% for the winner
- Louisiana at Arkansas State UL 34–30 · replay 16% for the winner
- Florida State at NC State NCSU 21–11 · replay 18% for the winner
- Missouri State at Kennesaw State KENN 41–34 · replay 23% for the winner
- UConn at Florida Atlantic CONN 48–45 · replay 25% for the winner