Week 13 2025 · November 22, 2025
Kansas at Iowa State, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?
Iowa State beat Kansas 38–14, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Iowa State wins 5 of 10.
Before kickoff Iowa State was a 58% favorite.
Final
 Kansas Jayhawks | 14 |
|---|---|
 Iowa State Cyclones | 38 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +51 Iowa State lucky · −51 Kansas
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Kansas wins 5, Iowa State wins 5.
- 1 KU 24 ISU 3
- 2 KU 21 ISU 7
- 3 KU 30 ISU 20
- 4 KU 20 ISU 14
- 5 KU 31 ISU 28
- 6 KU 21 ISU 24
- 7 KU 28 ISU 34
- 8 KU 20 ISU 28
- 9 KU 10 ISU 23
- 10 KU 14 ISU 35
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Kansas wins 51% of them, Iowa State 49%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Iowa State by 24.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Kansas by 17+ | 10.3% |
| Kansas by 9–16 | 17.3% |
| Kansas by 1–8 | 21.0% |
| Level after regulation | 2.6% |
| Iowa State by 1–8 | 28.9% |
| Iowa State by 9–16 | 11.9% |
| Iowa State by 17+ | 8.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- L. Marjan, 41 yds missed · 74% expected
- K. Konrardy, 55 yds made · 46% expected
Penalties: Kansas 4 for 25 yards, Iowa State 3 for 30 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2:43 | Offside on Kansas, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% ISU +1.0 pts |
| Q1 2:36 | Holding on Kansas, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% ISU +3.1 pts |
| Q2 10:43 | False Start on Kansas, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ISU +0.7 pts |
| Q2 7:34 | Offside on Kansas, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ISU +0.8 pts |
| Q3 12:30 | False Start on Iowa State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% KU +0.7 pts |
| Q3 12:24 | Holding on Iowa State, 10 yards | +2% KU +1.4 pts |
| Q4 8:38 | Pass Interference on Iowa State, 15 yards | +1% KU +1.8 pts |
When it happened
Iowa State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:09 | Iowa State was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expected | +4% KU | ISU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 9:35 | Iowa State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +3% ISU | ISU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 6:49 | Kansas converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +3% KU | KU: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 3:12 | Iowa State converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +2% ISU | ISU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 2:36 | Holding on Kansas, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +5% ISU | ISU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 10:59 | Iowa State converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +5% ISU | ISU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 6:24 | Iowa State converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +2% ISU | ISU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 4:22 | Iowa State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +3% ISU | ISU: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Kansas 3% · Iowa State 97%
- Final margin
- Iowa State by 24
- Luck in points
- 12.7 for Iowa State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Iowa State by 11.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Kansas 51% · Iowa State 49% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · 
Kansas · 
Iowa State
More from Week 13 2025
- BYU at Cincinnati BYU 26–14 · replay 36% for the winner
- Kansas State at Utah UTAH 51–47 · replay 52% for the winner
- TCU at Houston TCU 17–14 · replay 75% for the winner
- Oklahoma State at UCF UCF 17–14 · replay 92% for the winner
- Baylor at Arizona ARIZ 41–17 · replay 96% for the winner
- Arizona State at Colorado ASU 42–17 · replay 98% for the winner
- Marshall at App State APP 26–24 · replay 13% for the winner
- Duke at North Carolina DUKE 32–25 · replay 13% for the winner
- Louisiana at Arkansas State UL 34–30 · replay 16% for the winner
- Florida State at NC State NCSU 21–11 · replay 18% for the winner
- Missouri State at Kennesaw State KENN 41–34 · replay 23% for the winner
- UConn at Florida Atlantic CONN 48–45 · replay 25% for the winner