luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 13 2025 · November 22, 2025

Kansas State at Utah, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?

Utah beat Kansas State 51–47, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Utah wins 5 of 10. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 10 points of win probability to Utah.

Before kickoff Utah was an 87% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:47 left): Utah converted 4th & 1, worth 10 points of win probability to Utah.

Final

Kansas State Wildcats 47
Utah Utes 51

November 22, 2025 · Rice-Eccles Stadium · Closing line: Utah −17.5

Luck index +48 Utah lucky · −48 Kansas State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Kansas State wins 5, Utah wins 5.

  1. 1 KSU 51 UTAH 21
  2. 2 KSU 56 UTAH 38
  3. 3 KSU 48 UTAH 36
  4. 4 KSU 27 UTAH 20
  5. 5 KSU 45 UTAH 42
  6. 6 KSU 35 UTAH 37
  7. 7 KSU 31 UTAH 38
  8. 8 KSU 45 UTAH 56
  9. 9 KSU 23 UTAH 40
  10. 10 KSU 24 UTAH 49

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Kansas State wins 48% of them, Utah 52%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Utah by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Kansas State by 17+14.1%
Kansas State by 9–1612.6%
Kansas State by 1–817.6%
Level after regulation4.0%
Utah by 1–819.9%
Utah by 9–1614.0%
Utah by 17+17.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.4 points to Utah: the final margin was Utah by 4, without the luck Utah by 2.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • L. Rodriguez, 22 yds made · 94% expected
  • L. Rodriguez, 36 yds made · 80% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Kansas State 10 for 75 yards, Utah 5 for 36 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:20 Intentional Grounding on Kansas State, 0 yards 0% UTAH 0.0 pts
Q1 8:56 False Start on Kansas State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UTAH +0.4 pts
Q1 7:29 Illegal Shift on Utah, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% KSU +2.1 pts
Q1 7:18 Pass Interference on Kansas State, 15 yards +5% UTAH +3.3 pts
Q1 6:43 Offside on Kansas State, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% UTAH +1.0 pts
Q1 5:37 Personal Foul on Kansas State, 15 yards +3% UTAH +2.4 pts
Q1 5:08 Personal Foul on Kansas State, 10 yards +2% UTAH +1.3 pts
Q1 0:47 Ineligible Downfield on Kansas State, 5 yards, wiping out the play +5% UTAH +2.5 pts
Q1 0:40 Offside on Utah, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% KSU +0.4 pts
Q2 6:07 Pass Interference on Utah, 5 yards +2% KSU +1.3 pts
Q2 1:59 Pass Interference on Utah, 15 yards +1% KSU +1.3 pts
Q3 9:16 Holding on Kansas State, 10 yards +3% UTAH +1.3 pts
Q4 12:33 False Start on Kansas State, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% UTAH +0.8 pts
Q4 4:01 Illegal Substitution on Kansas State, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% UTAH +1.5 pts
Q4 3:46 Intentional Grounding on Utah, 6 yards +2% KSU +0.4 pts

When it happened

Utah’s chance of winning

As low as 8% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Utah was ahead in it, below while Kansas State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 8:17 Utah converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +5% UTAH UTAH: Touchdown
2 Q3 1:44 Kansas State converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +7% KSU KSU: Field goal
3 Q4 10:50 Kansas State converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +7% KSU KSU: Field goal
4 Q4 8:56 Kansas State was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +6% UTAH KSU: Field goal
5 Q4 7:41 Utah fumbled and Kansas State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% KSU UTAH: Touchdown
6 Q4 4:35 Utah was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +5% KSU UTAH: Touchdown
7 Q4 4:01 Illegal Substitution on Kansas State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +5% UTAH UTAH: Touchdown
8 Q4 1:47 Utah converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expected +10% UTAH UTAH: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Kansas State 35% · Utah 65%

Final margin
Utah by 4
Luck in points
1.4 for Utah
Luck-adjusted margin
Utah by 2.6
Replay with same day's form
Kansas State 48% · Utah 52% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · Kansas State · Utah

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Every week 13 game, 2025