Big 12 · 2026 season, in progress
Utah Utes: luck and expected wins
Utah is 4–0 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 3.9 wins. Luck added 0.1: the 67th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–0.
2026, game by game
How often Utah wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Idaho | W 66–14 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 2 | vs Arkansas | W 43–10 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 3 | vs Utah State | W 33–0 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 4 | @ Iowa State | W 31–17 | 96% | +4 |
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.
| Week | Game | Our pick | Utah win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 6 · Oct 10 | vs Kansas |  Utah by 25.8 | 95% |
| Week 7 · Oct 17 | at Colorado | Utah by 22.9 | 92% |
| Week 8 · Oct 24 | vs Houston | Utah by 17.7 | 86% |
| Week 9 · Oct 31 | at Cincinnati | Utah by 14.1 | 80% |
| Week 10 · Nov 7 | vs BYU | Utah by 12.7 | 78% |
| Week 11 · Nov 14 | at Arizona | Utah by 11.9 | 76% |
| Week 12 · Nov 21 | at TCU | Utah by 13.6 | 79% |
| Week 13 · Nov 27 | vs West Virginia | Utah by 26.6 | 94% |
Where the luck came from, 2026
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Utah’s favor.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | +0.06 | +1.2 |
| Pre-snap flags | −0.03 | +1.6 |
Luckiest wins
Wins Utah takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 14 | @ Kansas | W 31–21 | 20% | +80 |
| 2025 Week 13 | vs Kansas State | W 51–47 | 52% | +48 |
| 2025 Week 1 | @ UCLA | W 43–10 | 72% | +28 |
| 2025 Week 10 | vs Cincinnati | W 45–14 | 73% | +27 |
| 2025 Week 12 | @ Baylor | W 55–28 | 85% | +15 |
Unluckiest losses
Losses Utah would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 8 | @ BYU | L 21–24 | 57% | −57 |
| 2025 Week 4 | vs Texas Tech | L 10–34 | 13% | −13 |
Earlier seasons
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Postseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 10–2 | 8.6 | +1.4 | 1–1 | 1–0 |
2025, game by game
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ UCLA | W 43–10 | 72% | +28 |
| Week 2 | vs Cal Poly | W 63–9 | 95% | +5 |
| Week 3 | @ Wyoming | W 31–6 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 4 | vs Texas Tech | L 10–34 | 13% | −13 |
| Week 5 | @ West Virginia | W 48–14 | 97% | +3 |
| Week 7 | vs Arizona State | W 42–10 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 8 | @ BYU | L 21–24 | 57% | −57 |
| Week 9 | vs Colorado | W 53–7 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 10 | vs Cincinnati | W 45–14 | 73% | +27 |
| Week 12 | @ Baylor | W 55–28 | 85% | +15 |
| Week 13 | vs Kansas State | W 51–47 | 52% | +48 |
| Week 14 | @ Kansas | W 31–21 | 20% | +80 |
| SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl | vs Nebraska | W 44–22 | 94% | +6 |
More
- 2026 college football luck rankings
- Big 12 teams by luck
- Big 12:
Arizona, 
Arizona State, 
Baylor, 
BYU, 
Cincinnati, 
Colorado, 
Houston, 
Iowa State, 
Kansas, 
Kansas State, 
Oklahoma State, 
TCU, 
Texas Tech, 
UCF, 
West Virginia
How many wins does Utah have in 2026?
4–0 so far. Replayed with the way both teams played, its games were worth 3.9 wins.
Was Utah lucky or unlucky in 2026?
Neither: about as lucky as the average team so far: +0.1 wins of luck, the 67th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams.
What was Utah’s luckiest season?
2025: 10–2 from play worth 8.6 wins, +1.4 of luck. The unluckiest: 2026, 4–0 from play worth 3.9 (+0.1).