Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026
Arkansas at Utah, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?
Utah beat Arkansas 43–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Utah wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Utah was an 81% favorite.
Final
 Arkansas Razorbacks | 10 |
|---|---|
 Utah Utes | 43 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +1 Utah about even · −1 Arkansas
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Arkansas wins 0, Utah wins 10.
- 1 ARK 17 UTAH 24
- 2 ARK 14 UTAH 28
- 3 ARK 17 UTAH 35
- 4 ARK 13 UTAH 35
- 5 ARK 15 UTAH 41
- 6 ARK 9 UTAH 38
- 7 ARK 10 UTAH 42
- 8 ARK 0 UTAH 36
- 9 ARK 7 UTAH 49
- 10 ARK 0 UTAH 52
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Arkansas wins 1% of them, Utah 99%. The line is what actually happened: Utah by 33.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Arkansas by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Arkansas by 9–16 | 0.2% |
| Arkansas by 1–8 | 0.7% |
| Level after regulation | 0.4% |
| Utah by 1–8 | 3.8% |
| Utah by 9–16 | 6.3% |
| Utah by 17+ | 88.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- M. Gilbert, 29 yds made · 88% expected
- M. Gilbert, 51 yds missed · 53% expected
Penalties: Arkansas 8 for 63 yards, Utah 6 for 45 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 7:05 | Delay of Game on Utah, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ARK +0.9 pts |
| Q2 11:39 | Holding on Utah, 10 yards | +3% ARK +1.8 pts |
| Q2 11:23 | Personal Foul on Arkansas, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +4% UTAH +2.6 pts |
| Q2 8:37 | Pass Interference on Utah, 15 yards | +2% ARK +2.6 pts |
| Q2 2:00 | Pass Interference on Arkansas, 7 yards | 0% UTAH 0.0 pts |
| Q2 0:27 | Delay of Game on Arkansas, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ARK +0.1 pts |
| Q3 13:39 | Delay of Game on Utah, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ARK +0.1 pts |
| Q3 13:30 | Illegal Substitution on Arkansas, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ARK +0.2 pts |
| Q3 11:20 | False Start on Arkansas, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UTAH +0.5 pts |
| Q3 9:06 | Intentional Grounding on Utah, 0 yards | 0% ARK 0.0 pts |
| Q4 13:43 | Holding on Utah, 10 yards | 0% ARK +0.6 pts |
| Q4 13:43 | Pass Interference on Arkansas, 15 yards | 0% UTAH +1.4 pts |
| Q4 13:28 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Arkansas, 1 yard | 0% UTAH +0.8 pts |
| Q4 6:59 | Holding on Arkansas, 10 yards | 0% UTAH +1.3 pts |
When it happened
Utah’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:04 | Arkansas converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +3% ARK | ARK: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 10:22 | Arkansas converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected | +2% ARK | ARK: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 7:44 | M. Gilbert made a 29-yard field goalKicks · 88% expected for him | +4% UTAH | ARK: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 4:08 | Utah converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected | +4% ARK | UTAH: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 1:22 | Utah was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 69% expected | +2% ARK | UTAH: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 11:39 | Holding on Utah, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +3% ARK | ARK: Turnover |
| 7 | Q2 11:23 | Personal Foul on Arkansas, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +4% UTAH | UTAH: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 8:37 | Pass Interference on Utah, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +2% ARK | ARK: Missed field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Arkansas 0% · Utah 100%
- Final margin
- Utah by 33
- Luck in points
- 1.8 for Utah
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Utah by 31.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Arkansas 1% · Utah 99% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · 
Arkansas · 
Utah
More from Week 2 2026
- Texas Tech at Oregon State TTU 35–24 · replay 27% for the winner
- Ohio State at Texas TEX 24–23 · replay 32% for the winner
- Tennessee at Georgia Tech TENN 45–24 · replay 33% for the winner
- Arizona State at Texas A&M TA&M 48–20 · replay 45% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Michigan MICH 17–10 · replay 48% for the winner
- UCF at Pittsburgh PITT 12–7 · replay 58% for the winner
- Delaware at Vanderbilt VAN 35–26 · replay 74% for the winner
- Iowa State at Iowa IOWA 16–13 · replay 76% for the winner
- Arizona at BYU BYU 28–17 · replay 82% for the winner
- Missouri at Kansas MIZ 38–21 · replay 89% for the winner
- Charlotte at Ole Miss MISS 41–9 · replay 95% for the winner
- Oregon at Oklahoma State OKST 39–31 · replay 96% for the winner