Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026
Texas Tech at Oregon State, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?
Texas Tech beat Oregon State 35–24, but the replays lean toward Oregon State: it takes 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: kicks alone were worth 16 points of win probability to Texas Tech.
Texas Tech won on an off day: it played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Oregon State it would win 95% of the time; with this day’s form, 27%. The numbers
Before kickoff Texas Tech was a 95% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 13:23 left): C. Ojeda made a 34-yard field goal, worth 15 points of win probability to Texas Tech.
Final
 Texas Tech Red Raiders | 35 |
|---|---|
 Oregon State Beavers | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +73 Texas Tech very lucky · −73 Oregon State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Texas Tech wins 3, Oregon State wins 7.
- 1 TTU 37 ORST 16
- 2 TTU 41 ORST 30
- 3 TTU 20 ORST 16
- 4 TTU 34 ORST 37
- 5 TTU 10 ORST 17
- 6 TTU 20 ORST 31
- 7 TTU 27 ORST 42
- 8 TTU 31 ORST 50
- 9 TTU 14 ORST 38
- 10 TTU 23 ORST 56
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
Texas Tech won on an off day
It played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Oregon State it would win 95% of the time; with this day’s form, 27%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
68 points apart for Texas Tech: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Tech offenseEPA per play gained | +0.19 | +0.06 | better by 0.12 |
| Texas Tech defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.42 | −0.02 | better by 0.40 |
| Oregon State offenseEPA per play gained | −0.42 | +0.01 | worse by 0.43 |
| Oregon State defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.19 | +0.04 | worse by 0.14 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Texas Tech wins 27% of them, Oregon State 73%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texas Tech by 11.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Texas Tech by 17+ | 5.7% |
| Texas Tech by 9–16 | 7.8% |
| Texas Tech by 1–8 | 11.8% |
| Level after regulation | 2.3% |
| Oregon State by 1–8 | 21.0% |
| Oregon State by 9–16 | 18.1% |
| Oregon State by 17+ | 33.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Ojeda, 54 yds missed · 43% expected
- C. Ojeda, 34 yds made · 78% expected
Penalties: Texas Tech 6 for 65 yards, Oregon State 7 for 60 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:34 | Illegal Substitution on Oregon State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TTU +0.9 pts |
| Q1 3:37 | Personal Foul on Texas Tech, 15 yards | +1% ORST +1.6 pts |
| Q1 3:35 | False Start on Oregon State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TTU +0.8 pts |
| Q1 1:11 | Unnecessary Roughness on Oregon State, 15 yards | +1% TTU +0.9 pts |
| Q1 0:12 | False Start on Texas Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ORST +0.6 pts |
| Q2 9:50 | Offside on Texas Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ORST +0.4 pts |
| Q2 7:47 | Illegal Substitution on Oregon State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% ORST 0.0 pts |
| Q2 4:47 | Pass Interference on Oregon State, 15 yards | +1% TTU +0.7 pts |
| Q3 11:10 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Texas Tech, 15 yards | +2% ORST +1.6 pts |
| Q4 12:48 | Holding on Texas Tech, 10 yards | +8% ORST +2.0 pts |
| Q4 9:51 | Delay of Game on Oregon State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +5% TTU +1.2 pts |
| Q4 2:23 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Texas Tech, 15 yards | +2% ORST +0.9 pts |
| Q4 1:30 | Pass Interference on Oregon State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +11% TTU +2.4 pts |
When it happened
Oregon State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q3 4:55 | Oregon State converted 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedOregon State’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +8% ORST | ORST: Punt |
| 2 | Q4 13:27 | Oregon State was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +6% ORST | ORST: Field goal |
| 3 | Q4 13:23 | C. Ojeda made a 34-yard field goalKicks · 78% expected for him | +15% TTU | ORST: Punt |
| 4 | Q4 12:48 | Holding on Texas Tech, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +8% ORST | ORST: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 12:03 | Texas Tech was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +5% ORST | TTU: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 9:51 | Delay of Game on Oregon State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +5% TTU | TTU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 4:11 | Oregon State was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +5% TTU | ORST: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 1:30 | Oregon State was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedPass Interference on Oregon State, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +13% TTU | ORST: Turnover on downs |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Texas Tech 73% · Oregon State 27%
- Final margin
- Texas Tech by 11
- Luck in points
- 7.1 for Texas Tech
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Texas Tech by 3.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Texas Tech 27% · Oregon State 73% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · 
Texas Tech · 
Oregon State
More from Week 2 2026
- UTSA at Texas State UTSA 31–26 · replay 24% for the winner
- Utah State at Washington WASH 16–14 · replay 41% for the winner
- Arizona State at Texas A&M TA&M 48–20 · replay 45% for the winner
- Memphis at Boise State BOIS 38–20 · replay 50% for the winner
- UCF at Pittsburgh PITT 12–7 · replay 58% for the winner
- Iowa State at Iowa IOWA 16–13 · replay 76% for the winner
- Arizona at BYU BYU 28–17 · replay 82% for the winner
- San Diego State at UCLA UCLA 28–10 · replay 82% for the winner
- Missouri at Kansas MIZ 38–21 · replay 89% for the winner
- Southern Utah at Colorado State CSU 58–24 · replay 96% for the winner
- Oregon at Oklahoma State OKST 39–31 · replay 96% for the winner
- Weber State at Colorado COLO 52–21 · replay 97% for the winner