Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026
UTSA at Texas State, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?
UTSA beat Texas State 31–26, but the replays lean toward Texas State: it takes 8 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: kicks alone were worth 16 points of win probability to UTSA.
Before kickoff Texas State was a 54% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 3:28 left): UTSA converted 4th & 5, worth 20 points of win probability to UTSA.
Final
 UTSA Roadrunners | 31 |
|---|---|
 Texas State Bobcats | 26 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +76 UTSA very lucky · −76 Texas State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. UTSA wins 2, Texas State wins 8.
- 1 UTSA 26 TXST 14
- 2 UTSA 27 TXST 24
- 3 UTSA 14 TXST 17
- 4 UTSA 7 TXST 13
- 5 UTSA 28 TXST 37
- 6 UTSA 20 TXST 31
- 7 UTSA 20 TXST 35
- 8 UTSA 24 TXST 44
- 9 UTSA 19 TXST 43
- 10 UTSA 10 TXST 41
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
UTSA wins 24% of them, Texas State 76%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: UTSA by 5.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| UTSA by 17+ | 3.5% |
| UTSA by 9–16 | 6.2% |
| UTSA by 1–8 | 13.0% |
| Level after regulation | 4.3% |
| Texas State by 1–8 | 21.6% |
| Texas State by 9–16 | 19.4% |
| Texas State by 17+ | 31.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- D. Cunanan, 26 yds missed · 88% expected
- J. Bonilla, 51 yds made · 52% expected
- M. Petro, 34 yds made · 82% expected
- J. Bonilla, 26 yds made · 91% expected
- Extra point missed · 98% expected
Penalties: UTSA 10 for 110 yards, Texas State 8 for 75 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:33 | False Start on Texas State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% UTSA +0.7 pts |
| Q1 12:05 | Delay of Game on UTSA, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TXST +0.5 pts |
| Q1 9:32 | Ineligible Downfield on UTSA, 5 yards | +2% TXST +0.8 pts |
| Q1 8:17 | Holding on UTSA, 10 yards | +1% TXST +0.6 pts |
| Q2 13:42 | Holding on Texas State, 10 yards | +1% UTSA +0.6 pts |
| Q2 12:34 | Kick Catch Interference on UTSA, 15 yards | +2% TXST +0.9 pts |
| Q2 7:16 | Holding on UTSA, 10 yards | 0% TXST +0.9 pts |
| Q2 3:13 | Holding on UTSA, 10 yards | +5% TXST +1.8 pts |
| Q2 2:25 | Offside on Texas State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% UTSA +1.2 pts |
| Q2 0:21 | Holding on Texas State, 10 yards | +4% UTSA +1.9 pts |
| Q3 10:26 | Unnecessary Roughness on Texas State, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +9% UTSA +3.2 pts |
| Q3 10:06 | Illegal Block on UTSA, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% TXST +1.2 pts |
| Q3 7:38 | Personal Foul on UTSA, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +4% TXST +1.2 pts |
| Q4 14:45 | Personal Foul on Texas State, 15 yards | +6% UTSA +1.6 pts |
| Q4 11:12 | False Start on Texas State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% UTSA +0.6 pts |
| Q4 9:53 | Roughing the Passer on UTSA, 15 yards | +4% TXST +0.9 pts |
| Q4 2:42 | Personal Foul on UTSA, 15 yards | +7% TXST +0.8 pts |
| Q4 1:41 | Holding on Texas State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +9% TXST +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Texas State’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 83%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 14:48 | D. Cunanan missed a 26-yard field goalKicks · 88% expected for him | +9% UTSA | TXST: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q3 10:26 | Unnecessary Roughness on Texas State, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +9% UTSA | UTSA: Field goal |
| 3 | Q4 6:47 | Texas State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +8% TXST | TXST: Field goal |
| 4 | Q4 5:15 | Texas State was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +9% UTSA | TXST: Field goal |
| 5 | Q4 3:55 | UTSA was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +9% TXST | UTSA: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 3:28 | UTSA converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +20% UTSA | UTSA: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 1:51 | UTSA converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +19% UTSA | UTSA: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 1:41 | Holding on Texas State, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +9% TXST | UTSA: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
UTSA 67% · Texas State 33%
- Final margin
- UTSA by 5
- Luck in points
- 2.2 for UTSA
- Luck-adjusted margin
- UTSA by 2.8
- Replay with same day's form
- UTSA 24% · Texas State 76% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · 
UTSA · 
Texas State
More from Week 2 2026
- Texas Tech at Oregon State TTU 35–24 · replay 27% for the winner
- Tulsa at Sam Houston TLSA 23–17 · replay 27% for the winner
- App State at East Carolina APP 27–24 · replay 36% for the winner
- South Florida at Army USF 28–24 · replay 38% for the winner
- Utah State at Washington WASH 16–14 · replay 41% for the winner
- Memphis at Boise State BOIS 38–20 · replay 50% for the winner
- Penn State at Temple PSU 27–9 · replay 53% for the winner
- South Alabama at Tulane TULN 28–24 · replay 56% for the winner
- UL Monroe at UAB UAB 26–20 · replay 81% for the winner
- San Diego State at UCLA UCLA 28–10 · replay 82% for the winner
- Navy at Florida Atlantic FAU 38–30 · replay 85% for the winner
- Charlotte at Ole Miss MISS 41–9 · replay 95% for the winner