Pac-12 · 2026 season, in progress

Texas State Bobcats: luck and expected wins

Texas State is 2–2 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 2.7 wins. Luck cost 0.7: the 23rd-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–1.

2026, game by game

How often Texas State wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Texas	L 7–59	2%	−2
Week 2	vs UTSA	L 26–31	76%	−76
Week 3	vs North Texas	W 49–35	92%	+8
Week 4	vs Incarnate Word	W 63–10	99%	+1

Wk 1 −2 @ TEX

Wk 2 −76 vs UTSA

Wk 3 +8 vs UNT

Wk 4 +1 vs UIW

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Texas State win chance
Week 5 · Oct 3	at San Diego State	Texas State by 1.2	53%
Week 7 · Oct 15	vs Colorado State	Texas State by 9.7	72%
Week 8 · Oct 24	vs Utah State	Texas State by 9.1	71%
Week 9 · Oct 31	at Boise State	Boise State by 12.8	22%
Week 10 · Nov 7	at Oregon State	Oregon State by 2.5	44%
Week 11 · Nov 14	vs Fresno State	Texas State by 4.2	60%
Week 12 · Nov 21	vs Washington State	Texas State by 6.5	65%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Texas State’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
Fumble bounces	+0.10	−3.0
3rd & 4th downs	−0.06	−0.1
Pre-snap flags	−0.08	+0.7
Kicks	−0.16	−13.1

Luckiest wins

Wins Texas State takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 2	@ UTSA	W 43–36	47%	+53
2025 Week 13	vs UL Monroe	W 31–14	82%	+18
2026 Week 3	vs North Texas	W 49–35	92%	+8
2025 Week 1	vs Eastern Michigan	W 52–27	95%	+5
2025 Week 4	vs Nicholls	W 35–3	96%	+4

Unluckiest losses

Losses Texas State would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 11	@ Louisiana	L 39–42	86%	−86
2026 Week 2	vs UTSA	L 26–31	76%	−76
2025 Week 7	vs Troy	L 41–48	69%	−69
2025 Week 6	@ Arkansas State	L 30–31	50%	−50
2025 Week 8	@ Marshall	L 37–40	29%	−29

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	6–6	7.5	−1.5	1–4	1–0

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Eastern Michigan	W 52–27	95%	+5
Week 2	@ UTSA	W 43–36	47%	+53
Week 3	@ Arizona State	L 15–34	2%	−2
Week 4	vs Nicholls	W 35–3	96%	+4
Week 6	@ Arkansas State	L 30–31	50%	−50
Week 7	vs Troy	L 41–48	69%	−69
Week 8	@ Marshall	L 37–40	29%	−29
Week 10	vs James Madison	L 20–52	2%	−2
Week 11	@ Louisiana	L 39–42	86%	−86
Week 12	@ Southern Miss	W 41–14	97%	+3
Week 13	vs UL Monroe	W 31–14	82%	+18
Week 14	vs South Alabama	W 49–26	100%	0
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl	vs Rice	W 41–10	98%	+2