Week 6 2025 · October 4, 2025
Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 54 of the 61 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
Texas State at Arkansas State, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?
Arkansas State beat Texas State 31–30, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Arkansas State wins 5 of 10. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 24 points of win probability to Arkansas State.
An off day for Texas State: its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Arkansas State it would win 82% of the time; with this day’s form, 50%. The numbers
Before kickoff Texas State was an 82% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 7:13 left): Arkansas State converted 3rd & 2, worth 17 points of win probability to Arkansas State.
Final
 Texas State Bobcats | 30 |
|---|---|
 Arkansas State Red Wolves | 31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +50 Arkansas State lucky · −50 Texas State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Texas State wins 5, Arkansas State wins 5.
- 1 TXST 37 ARST 10
- 2 TXST 28 ARST 10
- 3 TXST 22 ARST 10
- 4 TXST 28 ARST 20
- 5 TXST 20 ARST 17
- 6 TXST 14 ARST 17
- 7 TXST 14 ARST 20
- 8 TXST 7 ARST 17
- 9 TXST 17 ARST 31
- 10 TXST 7 ARST 31
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Texas State
Its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Arkansas State it would win 82% of the time; with this day’s form, 50%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
31 points apart for Texas State: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas State offenseEPA per play gained | +0.06 | +0.16 | worse by 0.10 |
| Texas State defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.11 | +0.11 | better by 0.22 |
| Arkansas State offenseEPA per play gained | −0.11 | +0.02 | worse by 0.13 |
| Arkansas State defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.06 | +0.10 | better by 0.04 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Texas State wins 50% of them, Arkansas State 50%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Arkansas State by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Texas State by 17+ | 14.0% |
| Texas State by 9–16 | 15.5% |
| Texas State by 1–8 | 19.0% |
| Level after regulation | 1.9% |
| Arkansas State by 1–8 | 21.6% |
| Arkansas State by 9–16 | 15.6% |
| Arkansas State by 17+ | 12.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Van Andel, 51 yds made · 54% expected
- T. Robles, 31 yds made · 86% expected
- Extra point missed · 98% expected
Penalties: Texas State 9 for 65 yards, Arkansas State 5 for 40 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:08 | Holding on Texas State, 10 yards | +1% ARST +0.6 pts |
| Q1 10:13 | False Start on Texas State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ARST +0.6 pts |
| Q2 14:03 | False Start on Texas State, 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% ARST 0.0 pts |
| Q2 11:30 | False Start on Arkansas State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TXST +0.6 pts |
| Q2 9:07 | Holding on Texas State, 10 yards | +1% ARST +0.6 pts |
| Q2 4:45 | False Start on Arkansas State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TXST +0.5 pts |
| Q2 1:40 | False Start on Texas State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ARST +0.3 pts |
| Q3 12:13 | Holding on Texas State, 10 yards | +2% ARST +0.6 pts |
| Q3 12:00 | Holding on Texas State, 10 yards | +2% ARST +0.6 pts |
| Q3 6:51 | Face Mask on Arkansas State, 15 yards | +4% TXST +1.6 pts |
| Q3 3:07 | Holding on Arkansas State, 10 yards | +2% TXST +0.6 pts |
| Q3 2:49 | Illegal Formation on Arkansas State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TXST +0.3 pts |
| Q3 0:13 | Personal Foul on Texas State, 0 yards | 0% ARST 0.0 pts |
| Q4 1:37 | Pass Interference on Texas State, 15 yards | +7% ARST +1.6 pts |
When it happened
Arkansas State’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 8:21 | Texas State converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +5% TXST | TXST: Field goal |
| 2 | Q3 5:18 | Texas State was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 61% expected | +6% ARST | TXST: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q3 4:35 | Texas State was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 60% expected | +9% ARST | TXST: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 10:55 | Arkansas State converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +6% ARST | ARST: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 9:29 | Arkansas State converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +12% ARST | ARST: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 7:13 | Arkansas State converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected | +17% ARST | ARST: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 1:37 | Pass Interference on Texas State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +7% ARST | ARST: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 1:00 | Texas State missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 98% of the time | +6% ARST | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Texas State 90% · Arkansas State 10%
- Final margin
- Arkansas State by 1
- Luck in points
- 7.9 for Arkansas State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Texas State by 6.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Texas State 50% · Arkansas State 50% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here. Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 54 of the 61 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · 
Texas State · 
Arkansas State
More from Week 6 2025
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