luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 6 2025 · October 4, 2025

Oregon State at App State, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?

App State beat Oregon State 27–23, but the replays lean toward Oregon State: it takes 8 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 17 points of win probability to App State.

Before kickoff App State was a 54% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:49 left): Oregon State was stopped on 4th & 1, worth 17 points of win probability to App State.

Final

Oregon State Beavers 23
App State Mountaineers 27

October 4, 2025 · Kidd Brewer Stadium · Closing line: App State −1.5

Luck index +80 App State very lucky · −80 Oregon State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Oregon State wins 8, App State wins 2.

  1. 1 ORST 62 APP 28
  2. 2 ORST 48 APP 22
  3. 3 ORST 34 APP 13
  4. 4 ORST 35 APP 17
  5. 5 ORST 24 APP 10
  6. 6 ORST 26 APP 16
  7. 7 ORST 34 APP 28
  8. 8 ORST 37 APP 34
  9. 9 ORST 14 APP 18
  10. 10 ORST 28 APP 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Oregon State wins 80% of them, App State 20%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: App State by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Oregon State by 17+37.1%
Oregon State by 9–1619.8%
Oregon State by 1–818.7%
Level after regulation4.5%
App State by 1–811.7%
App State by 9–165.4%
App State by 17+2.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +11.6 points to App State: the final margin was App State by 4, without the luck Oregon State by 7.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • D. De Freitas, 49 yds made · 56% expected
  • C. Ojeda, 28 yds missed · 88% expected
  • D. De Freitas, 41 yds missed · 71% expected
  • D. De Freitas, 45 yds made · 63% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Oregon State 4 for 27 yards, App State 6 for 49 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 4:59 Pass Interference on Oregon State, 2 yards 0% APP +0.2 pts
Q2 13:56 Holding on Oregon State, 10 yards 0% ORST +0.9 pts
Q2 9:23 Delay of Game on App State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ORST +0.6 pts
Q2 8:19 False Start on App State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ORST +0.5 pts
Q2 5:06 Horse Collar Tackle on App State, 5 yards +2% ORST +1.0 pts
Q3 10:17 Holding on Oregon State, 10 yards +7% APP +2.5 pts
Q4 12:06 Targeting on App State, 15 yards +3% ORST +0.8 pts
Q4 11:19 Pass Interference on App State, 15 yards +5% ORST +1.2 pts
Q4 1:23 False Start on Oregon State, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% APP +0.4 pts
Q4 0:30 Pass Interference on App State, 4 yards +9% ORST +1.2 pts

When it happened

App State’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while App State was ahead in it, below while Oregon State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 0:30 D. De Freitas missed a 41-yard field goalKicks · 71% expected for him +7% ORST APP: Touchdown
2 Q3 11:32 App State converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +8% APP APP: Touchdown
3 Q3 10:17 Holding on Oregon State, 10 yardsJudgment calls +7% APP APP: Touchdown
4 Q3 2:39 App State converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +7% APP APP: Field goal
5 Q4 7:39 Oregon State converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +10% ORST ORST: Turnover on downs
6 Q4 1:49 Oregon State was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +17% APP ORST: Turnover
7 Q4 1:15 Oregon State converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +8% ORST ORST: Turnover
8 Q4 0:30 Oregon State was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 80% expectedPass Interference on App State, 4 yardsJudgment calls +9% ORST ORST: Turnover

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Oregon State 90% · App State 10%

Final margin
App State by 4
Luck in points
11.6 for App State
Luck-adjusted margin
Oregon State by 7.6
Replay with same day's form
Oregon State 80% · App State 20% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · Oregon State · App State

More from Week 6 2025

Every week 6 game, 2025