Week 6 2025 · October 3, 2025
Western Kentucky at Delaware, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?
Western Kentucky beat Delaware 27–24, but the replays lean toward Delaware: it takes 8 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 18 points of win probability to Western Kentucky.
Before kickoff Delaware was a 56% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 3:40 left): Delaware was stopped on 4th & 1, worth 24 points of win probability to Western Kentucky.
Final
 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers | 27 |
|---|---|
 Delaware Blue Hens | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +77 Western Kentucky very lucky · −77 Delaware
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Western Kentucky wins 2, Delaware wins 8.
- 1 WKU 28 DEL 14
- 2 WKU 20 DEL 17
- 3 WKU 17 DEL 20
- 4 WKU 10 DEL 14
- 5 WKU 3 DEL 10
- 6 WKU 14 DEL 24
- 7 WKU 7 DEL 20
- 8 WKU 7 DEL 24
- 9 WKU 6 DEL 27
- 10 WKU 7 DEL 34
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Western Kentucky wins 23% of them, Delaware 77%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Western Kentucky by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Western Kentucky by 17+ | 2.9% |
| Western Kentucky by 9–16 | 5.6% |
| Western Kentucky by 1–8 | 13.6% |
| Level after regulation | 4.7% |
| Delaware by 1–8 | 22.7% |
| Delaware by 9–16 | 22.2% |
| Delaware by 17+ | 28.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Cannon, 41 yds made · 72% expected
- N. Reed, 23 yds made · 89% expected
- J. Cannon, 43 yds made · 69% expected
- N. Reed, 42 yds missed · 65% expected
Penalties: Western Kentucky 7 for 75 yards, Delaware 1 for 0 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 3:31 | Illegal Formation on Western Kentucky, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% DEL +0.5 pts |
| Q2 7:55 | Illegal Formation on Western Kentucky, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% DEL +1.0 pts |
| Q2 1:47 | Pass Interference on Western Kentucky, 15 yards | +4% DEL +1.6 pts |
| Q2 0:00 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Delaware, 0 yards | 0% WKU 0.0 pts |
| Q3 14:51 | Holding on Western Kentucky, 10 yards | +4% DEL +1.8 pts |
| Q3 7:15 | Pass Interference on Western Kentucky, 10 yards | +4% DEL +1.2 pts |
| Q4 9:54 | Pass Interference on Western Kentucky, 15 yards | +11% DEL +2.3 pts |
| Q4 0:54 | Pass Interference on Western Kentucky, 15 yards | +14% DEL +1.6 pts |
When it happened
Delaware’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 78%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 15:00 | Delaware converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expectedDelaware converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedDelaware converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedDelaware converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +13% DEL | DEL: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 8:30 | Western Kentucky converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expectedWestern Kentucky converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +7% WKU | WKU: Turnover |
| 3 | Q2 7:55 | Western Kentucky converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expectedWestern Kentucky converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedN. Reed made a 23-yard field goalKicks · 89% expected for himIllegal Formation on Western Kentucky, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +9% WKU | WKU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 7:20 | Return touchdown by Western KentuckySpecial teams | +23% WKU | WKU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 4:47 | Western Kentucky converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedDelaware fumbled and Western Kentucky recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +19% WKU | WKU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 8:03 | Delaware converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expectedDelaware was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedDelaware converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expectedDelaware was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +16% DEL | DEL: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q4 3:40 | Delaware was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expectedWestern Kentucky converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +24% WKU | DEL: Missed field goal |
| 8 | Q4 0:54 | Pass Interference on Western Kentucky, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +14% DEL | DEL: Missed field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Western Kentucky 26% · Delaware 74%
- Final margin
- Western Kentucky by 3
- Luck in points
- 7.2 for Western Kentucky
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Delaware by 4.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Western Kentucky 23% · Delaware 77% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · 
Western Kentucky · 
Delaware
More from Week 6 2025
- Sam Houston at New Mexico State NMSU 37–10 · replay 83% for the winner
- Florida International at UConn CONN 51–10 · replay 97% for the winner
- Virginia at Louisville UVA 30–27 · replay 19% for the winner
- Oregon State at App State APP 27–23 · replay 20% for the winner
- UNLV at Wyoming UNLV 31–17 · replay 25% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Rice FAU 27–21 · replay 38% for the winner
- Ohio at Ball State BALL 20–14 · replay 38% for the winner
- Colorado at TCU TCU 35–21 · replay 41% for the winner
- Texas Tech at Houston TTU 35–11 · replay 45% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Virginia Tech WAKE 30–23 · replay 48% for the winner
- James Madison at Georgia State JMU 14–7 · replay 49% for the winner
- Texas State at Arkansas State ARST 31–30 · replay 50% for the winner