Week 6 2025 · October 2, 2025
Sam Houston at New Mexico State, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?
New Mexico State beat Sam Houston 37–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, New Mexico State wins 8 of 10.
An off day for Sam Houston: its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against New Mexico State it would win 54% of the time; with this day’s form, 17%. The numbers
Before kickoff Sam Houston was a 56% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 6:56 left): Sam Houston fumbled and New Mexico State recovered, worth 10 points of win probability to New Mexico State.
Final
 Sam Houston Bearkats | 10 |
|---|---|
 New Mexico State Aggies | 37 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +17 New Mexico State about even · −17 Sam Houston
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sam Houston wins 2, New Mexico State wins 8.
- 1 SHSU 21 NMSU 7
- 2 SHSU 21 NMSU 17
- 3 SHSU 21 NMSU 24
- 4 SHSU 3 NMSU 7
- 5 SHSU 14 NMSU 21
- 6 SHSU 10 NMSU 21
- 7 SHSU 14 NMSU 28
- 8 SHSU 7 NMSU 24
- 9 SHSU 10 NMSU 31
- 10 SHSU 3 NMSU 31
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Sam Houston
Its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against New Mexico State it would win 54% of the time; with this day’s form, 17%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
37 points apart for Sam Houston: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Houston offenseEPA per play gained | +0.14 | +0.02 | better by 0.12 |
| Sam Houston defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.30 | +0.04 | worse by 0.26 |
| New Mexico State offenseEPA per play gained | +0.30 | −0.02 | better by 0.33 |
| New Mexico State defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.14 | +0.04 | worse by 0.10 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Sam Houston wins 17% of them, New Mexico State 83%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: New Mexico State by 27.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sam Houston by 17+ | 1.8% |
| Sam Houston by 9–16 | 4.3% |
| Sam Houston by 1–8 | 9.3% |
| Level after regulation | 1.9% |
| New Mexico State by 1–8 | 25.4% |
| New Mexico State by 9–16 | 21.3% |
| New Mexico State by 17+ | 36.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- R. Lopez, 56 yds missed · 43% expected
- R. Hawk, 28 yds made · 88% expected
- C. Pavon, 51 yds made · 48% expected
- R. Hawk, 32 yds made · 84% expected
- R. Hawk, 45 yds made · 63% expected
Penalties: Sam Houston 4 for 40 yards, New Mexico State 2 for 15 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 5:25 | Holding on New Mexico State, 10 yards | +1% SHSU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 5:29 | Personal Foul on Sam Houston, 15 yards | +2% NMSU +0.8 pts |
| Q3 6:56 | Delay of Game on Sam Houston, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% NMSU +1.0 pts |
| Q3 6:00 | Personal Foul on Sam Houston, 15 yards | +5% NMSU +1.6 pts |
| Q4 10:00 | Offside on New Mexico State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NMSU +0.3 pts |
| Q4 9:00 | Delay of Game on Sam Houston, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NMSU +0.4 pts |
When it happened
New Mexico State’s chance of winning
As low as 36% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 7:59 | New Mexico State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +5% NMSU | NMSU: Turnover |
| 2 | Q1 4:23 | New Mexico State fumbled and Sam Houston recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% SHSU | NMSU: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 3:54 | New Mexico State converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +5% NMSU | NMSU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 11:00 | Sam Houston converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +7% SHSU | SHSU: Turnover |
| 5 | Q3 6:56 | Sam Houston fumbled and New Mexico State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Delay of Game on Sam Houston, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +10% NMSU | SHSU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 2:26 | Sam Houston converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +6% SHSU | SHSU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 14:00 | New Mexico State converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +8% NMSU | NMSU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 12:30 | New Mexico State converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +6% NMSU | NMSU: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sam Houston 1% · New Mexico State 99%
- Final margin
- New Mexico State by 27
- Luck in points
- 10.4 for New Mexico State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- New Mexico State by 16.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Sam Houston 17% · New Mexico State 83% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · 
Sam Houston · 
New Mexico State
More from Week 6 2025
- Western Kentucky at Delaware WKU 27–24 · replay 23% for the winner
- Florida International at UConn CONN 51–10 · replay 97% for the winner
- Virginia at Louisville UVA 30–27 · replay 19% for the winner
- Oregon State at App State APP 27–23 · replay 20% for the winner
- UNLV at Wyoming UNLV 31–17 · replay 25% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Rice FAU 27–21 · replay 38% for the winner
- Ohio at Ball State BALL 20–14 · replay 38% for the winner
- Colorado at TCU TCU 35–21 · replay 41% for the winner
- Texas Tech at Houston TTU 35–11 · replay 45% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Virginia Tech WAKE 30–23 · replay 48% for the winner
- James Madison at Georgia State JMU 14–7 · replay 49% for the winner
- Texas State at Arkansas State ARST 31–30 · replay 50% for the winner