Week 6 2025 · October 4, 2025
Wake Forest at Virginia Tech, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?
Wake Forest beat Virginia Tech 30–23, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Wake Forest wins 5 of 10.
Before kickoff Virginia Tech was a 61% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 0:49 left): Penalty on Virginia Tech, 15 yards, worth 15 points of win probability to Wake Forest.
Final
 Wake Forest Demon Deacons | 30 |
|---|---|
 Virginia Tech Hokies | 23 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +52 Wake Forest lucky · −52 Virginia Tech
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Wake Forest wins 5, Virginia Tech wins 5.
- 1 WAKE 26 VT 3
- 2 WAKE 28 VT 13
- 3 WAKE 17 VT 7
- 4 WAKE 23 VT 17
- 5 WAKE 13 VT 10
- 6 WAKE 21 VT 24
- 7 WAKE 8 VT 13
- 8 WAKE 13 VT 23
- 9 WAKE 6 VT 20
- 10 WAKE 10 VT 33
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Wake Forest wins 48% of them, Virginia Tech 52%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Wake Forest by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Wake Forest by 17+ | 11.3% |
| Wake Forest by 9–16 | 14.6% |
| Wake Forest by 1–8 | 20.8% |
| Level after regulation | 1.9% |
| Virginia Tech by 1–8 | 22.2% |
| Virginia Tech by 9–16 | 16.7% |
| Virginia Tech by 17+ | 12.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Calvert, 33 yds made · 81% expected
- J. Love, 32 yds made · 90% expected
- J. Love, 38 yds made · 82% expected
- C. Calvert, 29 yds made · 86% expected
- J. Love, 34 yds made · 88% expected
- J. Love, 49 yds missed · 62% expected
- C. Calvert, 27 yds made · 88% expected
Penalties: Wake Forest 10 for 87 yards, Virginia Tech 6 for 74 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:27 | False Start on Wake Forest, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% VT +0.4 pts |
| Q1 9:38 | False Start on Wake Forest, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% VT +0.4 pts |
| Q1 8:34 | Penalty on Wake Forest, 15 yards | +2% VT +0.9 pts |
| Q1 7:20 | Delay of Game on Virginia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% WAKE +0.6 pts |
| Q1 7:11 | False Start on Wake Forest, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% VT +0.8 pts |
| Q2 14:55 | Roughing the Passer on Virginia Tech, 15 yards | +6% WAKE +2.7 pts |
| Q2 6:55 | Penalty on Wake Forest, 17 yards | +6% VT +2.5 pts |
| Q2 3:55 | Illegal Block on Wake Forest, 10 yards | +3% VT +1.1 pts |
| Q2 3:31 | Penalty on Virginia Tech, 14 yards | +4% WAKE +1.6 pts |
| Q2 2:33 | Holding on Virginia Tech, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% WAKE +1.7 pts |
| Q3 0:49 | Penalty on Virginia Tech, 15 yards | +15% WAKE +3.8 pts |
| Q4 12:51 | Illegal Formation on Wake Forest, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% VT +0.9 pts |
| Q4 12:51 | Illegal Snap on Wake Forest, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% VT +0.6 pts |
| Q4 10:47 | Pass Interference on Wake Forest, 15 yards | +3% VT +0.8 pts |
| Q4 5:15 | Pass Interference on Virginia Tech, 15 yards | +3% WAKE +1.0 pts |
| Q4 5:15 | False Start on Wake Forest, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% VT +0.4 pts |
When it happened
Virginia Tech’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 72%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 6:55 | Penalty on Wake Forest, 17 yardsJudgment calls | +6% VT | VT: Punt |
| 2 | Q3 11:49 | Virginia Tech converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +6% VT | VT: Field goal |
| 3 | Q3 3:51 | Virginia Tech converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +9% VT | VT: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 0:49 | Penalty on Virginia Tech, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +15% WAKE | WAKE: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 12:51 | Illegal Formation on Wake Forest, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsIllegal Snap on Wake Forest, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +6% VT | VT: Missed field goal |
| 6 | Q4 11:19 | Virginia Tech converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +10% VT | VT: Missed field goal |
| 7 | Q4 9:26 | Virginia Tech was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +7% WAKE | VT: Missed field goal |
| 8 | Q4 8:44 | J. Love missed a 49-yard field goalKicks · 62% expected for him, 8 of 12 from 45+ before | +12% WAKE | VT: Turnover on downs |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Wake Forest 92% · Virginia Tech 8%
- Final margin
- Wake Forest by 7
- Luck in points
- 1.6 for Virginia Tech
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Wake Forest by 8.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Wake Forest 48% · Virginia Tech 52% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · 
Wake Forest · 
Virginia Tech
More from Week 6 2025
- Virginia at Louisville UVA 30–27 · replay 19% for the winner
- Miami at Florida State MIA 28–22 · replay 60% for the winner
- Duke at California DUKE 45–21 · replay 80% for the winner
- Clemson at North Carolina CLEM 38–10 · replay 87% for the winner
- Syracuse at SMU SMU 31–18 · replay 92% for the winner
- Boston College at Pittsburgh PITT 48–7 · replay 99% for the winner
- Campbell at NC State NCSU 56–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Oregon State at App State APP 27–23 · replay 20% for the winner
- Western Kentucky at Delaware WKU 27–24 · replay 23% for the winner
- UNLV at Wyoming UNLV 31–17 · replay 25% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Rice FAU 27–21 · replay 38% for the winner
- Ohio at Ball State BALL 20–14 · replay 38% for the winner