Week 6 2025 · October 4, 2025
Duke at California, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?
Duke beat California 45–21, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Duke wins 8 of 10.
Before kickoff Duke was a 59% favorite.
Final
 Duke Blue Devils | 45 |
|---|---|
 California Golden Bears | 21 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +20 Duke about even · −20 California
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Duke wins 8, California wins 2.
- 1 DUKE 51 CAL 10
- 2 DUKE 41 CAL 10
- 3 DUKE 48 CAL 24
- 4 DUKE 40 CAL 20
- 5 DUKE 30 CAL 15
- 6 DUKE 40 CAL 29
- 7 DUKE 45 CAL 38
- 8 DUKE 31 CAL 28
- 9 DUKE 20 CAL 24
- 10 DUKE 14 CAL 28
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Duke wins 80% of them, California 20%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Duke by 24.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Duke by 17+ | 44.6% |
| Duke by 9–16 | 17.2% |
| Duke by 1–8 | 18.3% |
| Level after regulation | 1.7% |
| California by 1–8 | 9.9% |
| California by 9–16 | 5.1% |
| California by 17+ | 3.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Duke 7 for 63 yards, California 6 for 43 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:29 | False Start on California, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% DUKE +0.5 pts |
| Q1 10:42 | Offside on Duke, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CAL +0.5 pts |
| Q1 9:11 | Personal Foul on Duke, 15 yards | +7% CAL +3.6 pts |
| Q1 9:00 | Holding on Duke, 10 yards | +1% CAL +0.6 pts |
| Q1 6:38 | Holding on California, 10 yards | +2% DUKE +0.9 pts |
| Q1 6:18 | Personal Foul on Duke, 7 yards | +2% CAL +1.2 pts |
| Q2 13:43 | Pass Interference on Duke, 11 yards | +2% CAL +0.8 pts |
| Q2 8:58 | Pass Interference on California, 6 yards | +3% DUKE +1.3 pts |
| Q2 6:59 | Holding on Duke, 10 yards | +1% CAL +0.6 pts |
| Q2 5:16 | Offside on Duke, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CAL +0.5 pts |
| Q2 0:02 | Offside on California, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% DUKE +0.6 pts |
| Q3 13:21 | False Start on California, 7 yards · pre-snap | +1% DUKE +0.4 pts |
| Q3 3:00 | Holding on California, 10 yards | +4% DUKE +1.9 pts |
When it happened
California’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 77%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 9:11 | Personal Foul on Duke, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +7% CAL | CAL: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 12:17 | California converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +4% CAL | CAL: Turnover |
| 3 | Q2 10:55 | Duke converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +6% DUKE | DUKE: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 8:58 | Pass Interference on California, 6 yardsJudgment calls | +3% DUKE | DUKE: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 2:00 | Duke converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +7% DUKE | DUKE: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 11:17 | California converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +6% CAL | CAL: Turnover |
| 7 | Q3 3:40 | California converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +3% CAL | CAL: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 3:00 | Holding on California, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +4% DUKE | DUKE: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Duke 100% · California 0%
- Final margin
- Duke by 24
- Luck in points
- none
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Duke by 24.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Duke 80% · California 20% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · 
Duke · 
California
More from Week 6 2025
- Virginia at Louisville UVA 30–27 · replay 19% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Virginia Tech WAKE 30–23 · replay 48% for the winner
- Miami at Florida State MIA 28–22 · replay 60% for the winner
- Clemson at North Carolina CLEM 38–10 · replay 87% for the winner
- Syracuse at SMU SMU 31–18 · replay 92% for the winner
- Boston College at Pittsburgh PITT 48–7 · replay 99% for the winner
- Campbell at NC State NCSU 56–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Oregon State at App State APP 27–23 · replay 20% for the winner
- Western Kentucky at Delaware WKU 27–24 · replay 23% for the winner
- UNLV at Wyoming UNLV 31–17 · replay 25% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Rice FAU 27–21 · replay 38% for the winner
- Ohio at Ball State BALL 20–14 · replay 38% for the winner