Week 6 2025 · October 4, 2025
Clemson at North Carolina, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?
Clemson beat North Carolina 38–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Clemson wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Clemson was an 84% favorite.
Final
 Clemson Tigers | 38 |
|---|---|
 North Carolina Tar Heels | 10 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +13 Clemson about even · −13 North Carolina
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Clemson wins 9, North Carolina wins 1.
- 1 CLEM 45 UNC 3
- 2 CLEM 52 UNC 17
- 3 CLEM 38 UNC 10
- 4 CLEM 38 UNC 14
- 5 CLEM 20 UNC 0
- 6 CLEM 31 UNC 16
- 7 CLEM 28 UNC 17
- 8 CLEM 24 UNC 17
- 9 CLEM 24 UNC 21
- 10 CLEM 24 UNC 31
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Clemson wins 87% of them, North Carolina 13%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Clemson by 28.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Clemson by 17+ | 52.4% |
| Clemson by 9–16 | 20.4% |
| Clemson by 1–8 | 14.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.9% |
| North Carolina by 1–8 | 8.5% |
| North Carolina by 9–16 | 2.3% |
| North Carolina by 17+ | 1.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- R. Verhoff, 35 yds made · 82% expected
- R. Verhoff, 50 yds missed · 55% expected
- N. Hauser, 27 yds made · 88% expected
Penalties: Clemson 7 for 80 yards, North Carolina 7 for 65 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:41 | Disconcerting Signals on Clemson, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CLEM +1.0 pts |
| Q1 4:09 | Illegal Block on North Carolina, 7 yards | 0% CLEM +0.4 pts |
| Q1 3:08 | Illegal Formation on North Carolina, 3 yards · pre-snap | 0% CLEM +0.2 pts |
| Q2 10:02 | Holding on Clemson, 10 yards | 0% UNC +0.6 pts |
| Q2 9:37 | Holding on Clemson, 10 yards | 0% UNC +0.6 pts |
| Q3 13:30 | Holding on North Carolina, 10 yards | 0% CLEM +2.0 pts |
| Q3 10:32 | Holding on Clemson, 10 yards | 0% CLEM +1.1 pts |
| Q3 9:12 | Holding on North Carolina, 10 yards | 0% CLEM +1.9 pts |
| Q3 8:47 | Personal Foul on Clemson, 15 yards | 0% UNC +3.6 pts |
| Q3 5:16 | Roughing the Passer on Clemson, 15 yards | 0% UNC +2.0 pts |
| Q3 2:10 | Pass Interference on North Carolina, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +1% CLEM +5.0 pts |
| Q4 12:48 | Pass Interference on Clemson, 15 yards | 0% UNC +1.3 pts |
| Q4 11:34 | False Start on North Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CLEM +0.6 pts |
| Q4 9:00 | Pass Interference on North Carolina, 15 yards | 0% CLEM +2.0 pts |
When it happened
North Carolina’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:37 | North Carolina fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +2% UNC | UNC: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 10:04 | North Carolina was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected | +2% CLEM | UNC: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 5:30 | Clemson was stopped on 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 20% expected | +0% CLEM | CLEM: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 4:53 | Clemson converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +1% CLEM | CLEM: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 4:09 | Illegal Block on North Carolina, 7 yardsJudgment calls | +0% CLEM | CLEM: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q1 1:06 | Clemson was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +0% UNC | CLEM: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q1 0:20 | Clemson converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected | +0% CLEM | CLEM: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 2:10 | Pass Interference on North Carolina, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +1% CLEM | CLEM: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Clemson 100% · North Carolina 0%
- Final margin
- Clemson by 28
- Luck in points
- 1.9 for Clemson
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Clemson by 26.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Clemson 87% · North Carolina 13% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · 
Clemson · 
North Carolina
More from Week 6 2025
- Virginia at Louisville UVA 30–27 · replay 19% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Virginia Tech WAKE 30–23 · replay 48% for the winner
- Miami at Florida State MIA 28–22 · replay 60% for the winner
- Duke at California DUKE 45–21 · replay 80% for the winner
- Syracuse at SMU SMU 31–18 · replay 92% for the winner
- Boston College at Pittsburgh PITT 48–7 · replay 99% for the winner
- Campbell at NC State NCSU 56–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Oregon State at App State APP 27–23 · replay 20% for the winner
- Western Kentucky at Delaware WKU 27–24 · replay 23% for the winner
- UNLV at Wyoming UNLV 31–17 · replay 25% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Rice FAU 27–21 · replay 38% for the winner
- Ohio at Ball State BALL 20–14 · replay 38% for the winner