luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 6 2025 · October 4, 2025

Campbell at NC State, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?

NC State beat Campbell 56–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, NC State wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff NC State was a 100% favorite.

Final

Campbell Fighting Camels 10
NC State Wolfpack 56

October 4, 2025 · Carter-Finley Stadium · Closing line: NC State −42.5

Luck index 0 NC State about even · 0 Campbell

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Campbell wins 0, NC State wins 10.

  1. 1 CAM 3 NCSU 31
  2. 2 CAM 3 NCSU 42
  3. 3 CAM 0 NCSU 44
  4. 4 CAM 0 NCSU 48
  5. 5 CAM 0 NCSU 51
  6. 6 CAM 0 NCSU 54
  7. 7 CAM 3 NCSU 59
  8. 8 CAM 3 NCSU 62
  9. 9 CAM 3 NCSU 67
  10. 10 CAM 0 NCSU 70

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Campbell wins 0% of them, NC State 100%. The line is what actually happened: NC State by 46.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Campbell by 17+0.0%
Campbell by 9–160.0%
Campbell by 1–80.0%
Level after regulation0.1%
NC State by 1–80.6%
NC State by 9–161.4%
NC State by 17+97.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

No play in this game swung win probability by luck.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.5 points to NC State: the final margin was NC State by 46, without the luck NC State by 39.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Campbell 7 for 65 yards, NC State 7 for 76 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 1:31 False Start on Campbell, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NCSU +0.4 pts
Q2 14:14 Holding on NC State, 10 yards 0% CAM +1.3 pts
Q2 12:54 Penalty on NC State, 15 yards 0% CAM +2.3 pts
Q2 10:21 Unnecessary Roughness on Campbell, 15 yards 0% NCSU +1.4 pts
Q2 7:01 Holding on Campbell, 10 yards 0% NCSU +1.4 pts
Q2 6:02 Penalty on NC State, 10 yards 0% CAM +0.6 pts
Q2 1:41 Pass Interference on Campbell, 10 yards 0% NCSU +0.3 pts
Q3 13:32 Unnecessary Roughness on Campbell, 15 yards 0% NCSU +3.0 pts
Q3 13:03 Penalty on NC State, 15 yards 0% CAM +1.6 pts
Q3 6:48 Holding on NC State, 10 yards 0% CAM +0.4 pts
Q3 0:25 Holding on NC State, 10 yards 0% CAM +1.8 pts
Q4 9:30 Delay of Game on Campbell, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NCSU +0.9 pts
Q4 8:41 Offside on Campbell, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NCSU +0.3 pts
Q4 6:14 Pass Interference on NC State, 6 yards 0% CAM +0.4 pts

When it happened

NC State’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while NC State was ahead in it, below while Campbell was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:24 Campbell converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +0% CAM CAM: Touchdown
2 Q1 11:04 Campbell converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +0% CAM CAM: Touchdown
3 Q1 10:15 Campbell was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +0% NCSU CAM: Touchdown
4 Q1 7:16 Campbell converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +0% CAM CAM: Punt
5 Q1 5:22 Campbell was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +0% NCSU CAM: Punt
6 Q1 3:22 NC State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +0% NCSU NCSU: Touchdown
7 Q2 10:31 Campbell was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +0% NCSU CAM: Punt
8 Q2 7:01 Holding on Campbell, 10 yardsJudgment calls +0% NCSU NCSU: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Campbell 0% · NC State 100%

Final margin
NC State by 46
Luck in points
6.5 for NC State
Luck-adjusted margin
NC State by 39.5
Replay with same day's form
Campbell 0% · NC State 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · Campbell · NC State

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