luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 6 2025 · October 4, 2025

Ohio at Ball State, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?

Ball State beat Ohio 20–14, but the replays lean toward Ohio: it takes 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 18 points of win probability to Ball State.

Before kickoff Ohio was an 82% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:57 left): Ball State converted 3rd & 4, worth 26 points of win probability to Ball State.

Final

Ohio Bobcats 14
Ball State Cardinals 20

October 4, 2025 · Scheumann Stadium · Closing line: Ohio −14

Luck index +62 Ball State very lucky · −62 Ohio

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ohio wins 6, Ball State wins 4.

  1. 1 OHIO 44 BALL 13
  2. 2 OHIO 28 BALL 7
  3. 3 OHIO 41 BALL 26
  4. 4 OHIO 27 BALL 16
  5. 5 OHIO 21 BALL 14
  6. 6 OHIO 24 BALL 21
  7. 7 OHIO 28 BALL 31
  8. 8 OHIO 24 BALL 30
  9. 9 OHIO 20 BALL 33
  10. 10 OHIO 10 BALL 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ohio wins 62% of them, Ball State 38%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ball State by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ohio by 17+24.0%
Ohio by 9–1617.4%
Ohio by 1–819.7%
Level after regulation5.7%
Ball State by 1–816.5%
Ball State by 9–169.5%
Ball State by 17+7.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.7 points to Ball State: the final margin was Ball State by 6, without the luck Ball State by 1.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • D. Dellenbach, 49 yds missed · 56% expected
  • C. Holmer, 22 yds made · 92% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Ohio 8 for 95 yards, Ball State 2 for 15 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:20 Holding on Ohio, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% BALL +2.1 pts
Q1 11:00 False Start on Ball State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% OHIO +0.7 pts
Q1 8:52 Face Mask on Ohio, 15 yards +1% BALL +1.2 pts
Q1 4:32 Personal Foul on Ohio, 13 yards +1% BALL +0.8 pts
Q2 14:31 Intentional Grounding on Ohio, 7 yards +2% BALL +1.8 pts
Q3 11:10 Face Mask on Ohio, 15 yards +1% BALL +1.6 pts
Q3 2:25 Pass Interference on Ohio, 15 yards +8% BALL +3.8 pts
Q4 7:24 Holding on Ball State, 10 yards +5% OHIO +1.1 pts
Q4 1:54 Offside on Ohio, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% BALL +0.3 pts
Q4 0:57 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Ohio, 15 yards +2% BALL +0.3 pts

When it happened

Ball State’s chance of winning

As low as 3% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Ball State was ahead in it, below while Ohio was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 3:48 Ohio was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 80% expected +8% BALL OHIO: Punt
2 Q3 2:25 Pass Interference on Ohio, 15 yardsJudgment calls +8% BALL BALL: Field goal
3 Q4 10:46 Ball State converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +5% BALL BALL: Punt
4 Q4 8:53 Ball State was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +4% OHIO BALL: Punt
5 Q4 8:39 Ohio fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% OHIO OHIO: Punt
6 Q4 7:24 Holding on Ball State, 10 yardsJudgment calls +5% OHIO OHIO: Punt
7 Q4 3:13 Ohio was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +5% BALL OHIO: Punt
8 Q4 0:57 Ball State converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedBall State’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expectedUnsportsmanlike Conduct on Ohio, 15 yardsJudgment calls +26% BALL BALL: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ohio 42% · Ball State 58%

Final margin
Ball State by 6
Luck in points
4.7 for Ball State
Luck-adjusted margin
Ball State by 1.3
Replay with same day's form
Ohio 62% · Ball State 38% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · Ohio · Ball State

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