Week 6 2025 · October 4, 2025
Texas Tech at Houston, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?
Texas Tech beat Houston 35–11, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Texas Tech wins 4 of 10.
Texas Tech won on an off day: it played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Houston it would win 88% of the time; with this day’s form, 45%. The numbers
Before kickoff Texas Tech was an 81% favorite.
Final
 Texas Tech Red Raiders | 35 |
|---|---|
 Houston Cougars | 11 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +55 Texas Tech lucky · −55 Houston
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Texas Tech wins 4, Houston wins 6.
- 1 TTU 29 HOU 2
- 2 TTU 29 HOU 14
- 3 TTU 20 HOU 11
- 4 TTU 34 HOU 31
- 5 TTU 34 HOU 36
- 6 TTU 16 HOU 21
- 7 TTU 0 HOU 9
- 8 TTU 19 HOU 33
- 9 TTU 14 HOU 34
- 10 TTU 17 HOU 48
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
Texas Tech won on an off day
It played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Houston it would win 88% of the time; with this day’s form, 45%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
44 points apart for Texas Tech: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Tech offenseEPA per play gained | +0.20 | +0.10 | better by 0.09 |
| Texas Tech defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.13 | +0.08 | better by 0.22 |
| Houston offenseEPA per play gained | −0.13 | −0.03 | worse by 0.11 |
| Houston defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.20 | +0.02 | worse by 0.18 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Texas Tech wins 45% of them, Houston 55%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texas Tech by 24.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Texas Tech by 17+ | 13.3% |
| Texas Tech by 9–16 | 12.7% |
| Texas Tech by 1–8 | 16.0% |
| Level after regulation | 2.8% |
| Houston by 1–8 | 18.9% |
| Houston by 9–16 | 16.2% |
| Houston by 17+ | 20.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- S. Harrington, 26 yds made · 92% expected
- U. Bellenfant, 33 yds made · 83% expected
- S. Harrington, 23 yds made · 94% expected
- E. Sanchez, 24 yds made · 93% expected
- S. Harrington, 26 yds made · 92% expected
- U. Bellenfant, 29 yds made · 88% expected
- S. Harrington, 53 yds missed · 50% expected
Penalties: Texas Tech 7 for 60 yards, Houston 4 for 40 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:05 | Offside on Texas Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% HOU +1.0 pts |
| Q1 7:57 | Holding on Texas Tech, 10 yards | +2% HOU +1.8 pts |
| Q2 9:57 | Pass Interference on Texas Tech, 15 yards | 0% HOU +1.0 pts |
| Q2 3:30 | False Start on Texas Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% HOU +1.2 pts |
| Q2 2:00 | False Start on Texas Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% HOU +0.7 pts |
| Q3 14:45 | Face Mask on Texas Tech, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +3% HOU +4.1 pts |
| Q3 7:07 | Illegal Formation on Houston, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TTU +1.4 pts |
| Q4 12:22 | False Start on Texas Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% HOU +1.0 pts |
| Q4 11:08 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Houston, 15 yards | 0% TTU +3.3 pts |
| Q4 9:09 | Face Mask on Houston, 15 yards | 0% TTU +1.5 pts |
| Q4 9:09 | False Start on Houston, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TTU +0.5 pts |
When it happened
Houston’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:36 | Texas Tech was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +2% HOU | TTU: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 12:56 | Texas Tech converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected | +2% TTU | TTU: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 10:25 | Houston fumbled and Texas Tech recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +3% TTU | HOU: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 9:42 | Texas Tech was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +1% HOU | TTU: Field goal |
| 5 | Q1 8:05 | Offside on Texas Tech, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +1% HOU | HOU: Punt |
| 6 | Q1 7:57 | Texas Tech converted 3rd & 203rd & 4th downs · 16% expectedHouston was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expectedHolding on Texas Tech, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +4% TTU | TTU: End of half |
| 7 | Q2 14:45 | Houston converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected | +1% HOU | HOU: Turnover |
| 8 | Q3 14:45 | Face Mask on Texas Tech, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +3% HOU | HOU: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Texas Tech 100% · Houston 0%
- Final margin
- Texas Tech by 24
- Luck in points
- 3.3 for Texas Tech
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Texas Tech by 20.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Texas Tech 45% · Houston 55% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · 
Texas Tech · 
Houston
More from Week 6 2025
- Colorado at TCU TCU 35–21 · replay 41% for the winner
- Kansas State at Baylor BAY 35–34 · replay 67% for the winner
- Kansas at UCF KU 27–20 · replay 71% for the winner
- Iowa State at Cincinnati CIN 38–30 · replay 91% for the winner
- West Virginia at BYU BYU 38–24 · replay 93% for the winner
- Oklahoma State at Arizona ARIZ 41–13 · replay 100% for the winner
- Virginia at Louisville UVA 30–27 · replay 19% for the winner
- Oregon State at App State APP 27–23 · replay 20% for the winner
- Western Kentucky at Delaware WKU 27–24 · replay 23% for the winner
- UNLV at Wyoming UNLV 31–17 · replay 25% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Rice FAU 27–21 · replay 38% for the winner
- Ohio at Ball State BALL 20–14 · replay 38% for the winner