Week 6 2025 · October 4, 2025
Oklahoma State at Arizona, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?
Arizona beat Oklahoma State 41–13, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Arizona wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Arizona was a 92% favorite.
Final
 Oklahoma State Cowboys | 13 |
|---|---|
 Arizona Wildcats | 41 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Arizona about even · 0 Oklahoma State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Oklahoma State wins 0, Arizona wins 10.
- 1 OKST 6 ARIZ 24
- 2 OKST 3 ARIZ 31
- 3 OKST 9 ARIZ 41
- 4 OKST 0 ARIZ 37
- 5 OKST 13 ARIZ 54
- 6 OKST 0 ARIZ 45
- 7 OKST 0 ARIZ 49
- 8 OKST 7 ARIZ 60
- 9 OKST 0 ARIZ 59
- 10 OKST 3 ARIZ 70
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Oklahoma State wins 0% of them, Arizona 100%. The line is what actually happened: Arizona by 28.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Oklahoma State by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Oklahoma State by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Oklahoma State by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Arizona by 1–8 | 0.5% |
| Arizona by 9–16 | 2.7% |
| Arizona by 17+ | 96.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- L. Ward, 47 yds made · 61% expected
- L. Ward, 48 yds missed · 59% expected
- M. Salgado-Medina, 46 yds missed · 60% expected
- L. Ward, 46 yds made · 62% expected
- M. Salgado-Medina, 34 yds made · 80% expected
- M. Salgado-Medina, 57 yds made · 41% expected
Penalties: Oklahoma State 4 for 45 yards, Arizona 3 for 30 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:33 | Offside on Oklahoma State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ARIZ +0.7 pts |
| Q1 2:37 | Roughing the Passer on Oklahoma State, 15 yards | +1% ARIZ +1.4 pts |
| Q2 14:55 | Face Mask on Arizona, 15 yards | +1% OKST +1.6 pts |
| Q2 7:47 | Holding on Oklahoma State, 10 yards | 0% ARIZ +1.1 pts |
| Q2 1:53 | Personal Foul on Oklahoma State, 15 yards | 0% ARIZ +0.9 pts |
| Q4 13:02 | False Start on Arizona, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% OKST +0.6 pts |
| Q4 9:05 | Holding on Arizona, 10 yards | 0% OKST +1.2 pts |
When it happened
Arizona’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 10:08 | Arizona converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +2% ARIZ | ARIZ: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 7:46 | Arizona was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +1% OKST | ARIZ: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 5:59 | L. Ward made a 47-yard field goalKicks · 61% expected for him, 4 of 6 from 45+ before | +1% OKST | OKST: Missed field goal |
| 4 | Q1 1:26 | Arizona converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +1% ARIZ | ARIZ: Missed field goal |
| 5 | Q2 14:55 | Face Mask on Arizona, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +1% OKST | OKST: Missed field goal |
| 6 | Q2 13:48 | L. Ward missed a 48-yard field goalKicks · 59% expected for him, 5 of 7 from 45+ before | +1% ARIZ | OKST: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 11:08 | M. Salgado-Medina missed a 46-yard field goalKicks · 60% expected for him, 1 of 5 from 45+ before | +1% OKST | ARIZ: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 6:20 | Arizona converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +1% ARIZ | ARIZ: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Oklahoma State 0% · Arizona 100%
- Final margin
- Arizona by 28
- Luck in points
- 1.0 for Arizona
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Arizona by 27.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Oklahoma State 0% · Arizona 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · 
Oklahoma State · 
Arizona
More from Week 6 2025
- Colorado at TCU TCU 35–21 · replay 41% for the winner
- Texas Tech at Houston TTU 35–11 · replay 45% for the winner
- Kansas State at Baylor BAY 35–34 · replay 67% for the winner
- Kansas at UCF KU 27–20 · replay 71% for the winner
- Iowa State at Cincinnati CIN 38–30 · replay 91% for the winner
- West Virginia at BYU BYU 38–24 · replay 93% for the winner
- Virginia at Louisville UVA 30–27 · replay 19% for the winner
- Oregon State at App State APP 27–23 · replay 20% for the winner
- Western Kentucky at Delaware WKU 27–24 · replay 23% for the winner
- UNLV at Wyoming UNLV 31–17 · replay 25% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Rice FAU 27–21 · replay 38% for the winner
- Ohio at Ball State BALL 20–14 · replay 38% for the winner