luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 6 2025 · October 4, 2025

Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 34 of the 48 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.

Florida Atlantic at Rice, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?

Florida Atlantic beat Rice 27–21, but the replays lean toward Rice: it takes 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 8 points of win probability to Florida Atlantic.

Before kickoff Rice was a 61% favorite.

Final

Florida Atlantic Owls 27
Rice Owls 21

October 4, 2025 · Rice Stadium · Closing line: Rice −4.5

Luck index +62 Florida Atlantic very lucky · −62 Rice

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Florida Atlantic wins 4, Rice wins 6.

  1. 1 FAU 21 RICE 3
  2. 2 FAU 26 RICE 16
  3. 3 FAU 13 RICE 7
  4. 4 FAU 10 RICE 7
  5. 5 FAU 17 RICE 20
  6. 6 FAU 7 RICE 13
  7. 7 FAU 0 RICE 7
  8. 8 FAU 17 RICE 28
  9. 9 FAU 3 RICE 17
  10. 10 FAU 7 RICE 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Florida Atlantic wins 38% of them, Rice 62%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Florida Atlantic by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Florida Atlantic by 17+5.4%
Florida Atlantic by 9–1610.9%
Florida Atlantic by 1–821.4%
Level after regulation1.0%
Rice by 1–827.6%
Rice by 9–1621.2%
Rice by 17+12.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.3 points to Florida Atlantic: the final margin was Florida Atlantic by 6, without the luck Rice by 0.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • G. Smith, 36 yds made · 80% expected
  • E. Gota, 47 yds missed · 58% expected
  • G. Smith, 26 yds made · 91% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Florida Atlantic 4 for 30 yards, Rice 2 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Offside on Florida Atlantic, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% RICE +1.0 pts
Q1 11:29 Pass Interference on Rice, 15 yards +4% FAU +2.5 pts
Q2 7:40 False Start on Florida Atlantic, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% RICE +0.6 pts
Q2 0:27 Pass Interference on Rice, 15 yards +2% FAU +0.8 pts
Q3 15:00 False Start on Florida Atlantic, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% RICE +0.6 pts
Q4 5:29 Roughing the Passer on Florida Atlantic, 15 yards 0% RICE 0.0 pts

When it happened

Rice’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 75%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Rice was ahead in it, below while Florida Atlantic was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:29 Pass Interference on Rice, 15 yardsJudgment calls +4% FAU FAU: Touchdown
2 Q1 8:52 Rice was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +6% FAU RICE: Punt
3 Q1 7:30 Florida Atlantic was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +3% RICE FAU: Touchdown
4 Q1 6:57 Florida Atlantic converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +7% FAU FAU: Turnover
5 Q1 5:28 Rice converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +4% RICE RICE: Punt
6 Q2 8:16 Rice was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +3% FAU RICE: Punt
7 Q2 0:00 Florida Atlantic fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% FAU FAU: Field goal
8 Q3 15:00 Florida Atlantic converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedFlorida Atlantic converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expectedFlorida Atlantic was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedFalse Start on Florida Atlantic, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +5% FAU FAU: Field goal

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Florida Atlantic 47% · Rice 53%

Final margin
Florida Atlantic by 6
Luck in points
6.3 for Florida Atlantic
Luck-adjusted margin
Rice by 0.3
Replay with same day's form
Florida Atlantic 38% · Rice 62% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here. Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 34 of the 48 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · Florida Atlantic · Rice

More from Week 6 2025

Every week 6 game, 2025