Week 6 2025 · October 3, 2025
Charlotte at South Florida, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?
South Florida beat Charlotte 54–26, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, South Florida wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff South Florida was a 96% favorite.
Final
 Charlotte 49ers | 26 |
|---|---|
 South Florida Bulls | 54 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 South Florida about even · 0 Charlotte
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Charlotte wins 0, South Florida wins 10.
- 1 CLT 23 USF 37
- 2 CLT 10 USF 34
- 3 CLT 6 USF 34
- 4 CLT 7 USF 40
- 5 CLT 17 USF 54
- 6 CLT 7 USF 47
- 7 CLT 0 USF 44
- 8 CLT 7 USF 56
- 9 CLT 13 USF 68
- 10 CLT 7 USF 70
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Charlotte wins 0% of them, South Florida 100%. The line is what actually happened: South Florida by 28.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Charlotte by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Charlotte by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Charlotte by 1–8 | 0.2% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| South Florida by 1–8 | 0.5% |
| South Florida by 9–16 | 1.8% |
| South Florida by 17+ | 97.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- N. Gramatica, 43 yds made · 68% expected
- L. Boyd, 33 yds made · 82% expected
Penalties: Charlotte 12 for 80 yards, South Florida 6 for 60 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:40 | Personal Foul on Charlotte, 15 yards | +1% USF +1.6 pts |
| Q1 11:27 | Pass Interference on Charlotte, 15 yards | 0% USF +0.1 pts |
| Q1 11:10 | Ineligible Downfield on South Florida, 5 yards, wiping out the play | 0% CLT +1.4 pts |
| Q1 7:07 | Illegal Block on Charlotte, 7 yards | 0% USF +0.4 pts |
| Q1 6:14 | False Start on Charlotte, 3 yards · pre-snap | 0% USF +0.4 pts |
| Q1 5:23 | Personal Foul on South Florida, 15 yards | 0% CLT +0.9 pts |
| Q2 14:15 | False Start on Charlotte, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% USF +0.7 pts |
| Q2 13:08 | False Start on Charlotte, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% USF +0.7 pts |
| Q2 12:31 | Intentional Grounding on Charlotte, 0 yards | 0% USF 0.0 pts |
| Q2 12:24 | Illegal Formation on Charlotte, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% USF +0.3 pts |
| Q2 12:00 | Pass Interference on Charlotte, 15 yards | 0% USF +1.0 pts |
| Q2 3:54 | Offside on Charlotte, 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% CLT +1.5 pts |
| Q2 2:07 | Offside on Charlotte, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% USF +0.4 pts |
| Q3 9:03 | False Start on South Florida, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CLT +0.7 pts |
| Q3 7:18 | Pass Interference on South Florida, 15 yards | 0% CLT +2.3 pts |
| Q3 7:17 | Offside on South Florida, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CLT +0.9 pts |
| Q4 9:11 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on South Florida, 15 yards | 0% USF +4.0 pts |
| Q4 6:48 | False Start on Charlotte, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% USF +0.5 pts |
When it happened
South Florida’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:40 | Personal Foul on Charlotte, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +1% USF | USF: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 12:55 | Charlotte was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +0% USF | CLT: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 11:10 | Ineligible Downfield on South Florida, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +0% CLT | CLT: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 10:47 | South Florida fumbled and Charlotte recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +0% CLT | USF: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 9:36 | Charlotte was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +0% USF | CLT: Punt |
| 6 | Q1 5:23 | Personal Foul on South Florida, 15 yardsJudgment callsBlocked punt by South FloridaSpecial teams | +0% CLT | CLT: Punt |
| 7 | Q1 4:40 | South Florida converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +0% USF | USF: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 13:58 | Charlotte converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 51% expectedCharlotte’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +0% CLT | CLT: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Charlotte 0% · South Florida 100%
- Final margin
- South Florida by 28
- Luck in points
- 4.1 for South Florida
- Luck-adjusted margin
- South Florida by 23.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Charlotte 0% · South Florida 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · 
Charlotte · 
South Florida
More from Week 6 2025
- Florida Atlantic at Rice FAU 27–21 · replay 38% for the winner
- Army at UAB ARMY 31–13 · replay 51% for the winner
- Air Force at Navy NAVY 34–31 · replay 74% for the winner
- UTSA at Temple TEM 27–21 · replay 76% for the winner
- Tulsa at Memphis MEM 45–7 · replay 97% for the winner
- Virginia at Louisville UVA 30–27 · replay 19% for the winner
- Oregon State at App State APP 27–23 · replay 20% for the winner
- Western Kentucky at Delaware WKU 27–24 · replay 23% for the winner
- UNLV at Wyoming UNLV 31–17 · replay 25% for the winner
- Ohio at Ball State BALL 20–14 · replay 38% for the winner
- Colorado at TCU TCU 35–21 · replay 41% for the winner
- Texas Tech at Houston TTU 35–11 · replay 45% for the winner