Week 6 2025 · October 4, 2025
Virginia at Louisville, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?
Virginia beat Louisville 30–27, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, Louisville wins 8 of 10.
Before kickoff Louisville was a 66% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 6:25 left): Return touchdown by Virginia, worth 26 points of win probability to Virginia.
Final (OT)
 Virginia Cavaliers | 30 |
|---|---|
 Louisville Cardinals | 27 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +81 Virginia very lucky · −81 Louisville
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Virginia wins 2, Louisville wins 8.
- 1 UVA 19 LOU 7
- 2 UVA 13 LOU 10
- 3 UVA 13 LOU 16
- 4 UVA 10 LOU 16
- 5 UVA 7 LOU 17
- 6 UVA 2 LOU 14
- 7 UVA 6 LOU 21
- 8 UVA 5 LOU 24
- 9 UVA 0 LOU 23
- 10 UVA 0 LOU 31
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Virginia wins 19% of them, Louisville 81%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Virginia by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Virginia by 17+ | 1.7% |
| Virginia by 9–16 | 4.8% |
| Virginia by 1–8 | 11.8% |
| Level after regulation | 3.8% |
| Louisville by 1–8 | 23.3% |
| Louisville by 9–16 | 21.5% |
| Louisville by 17+ | 33.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Ranvier, 42 yds missed · 70% expected
- W. Bettridge, 46 yds made · 62% expected
- C. Ranvier, 50 yds made · 55% expected
- C. Ranvier, 24 yds made · 93% expected
Penalties: Virginia 7 for 68 yards, Louisville 5 for 60 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:14 | Holding on Virginia, 10 yards | +1% LOU +0.6 pts |
| Q1 10:35 | Holding on Louisville, 10 yards | +4% UVA +1.9 pts |
| Q1 10:26 | Pass Interference on Virginia, 8 yards | +4% LOU +1.9 pts |
| Q1 9:49 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Louisville, 15 yards | +2% UVA +1.0 pts |
| Q2 10:20 | Holding on Virginia, 10 yards | +1% LOU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 6:56 | Roughing the Passer on Louisville, 15 yards | +6% UVA +2.3 pts |
| Q2 1:22 | False Start on Virginia, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LOU +0.3 pts |
| Q2 1:10 | Horse Collar Tackle on Virginia, 15 yards | +2% LOU +0.9 pts |
| Q3 12:39 | False Start on Louisville, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% UVA +1.0 pts |
| Q3 7:55 | Illegal Formation on Virginia, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% LOU +0.7 pts |
| Q3 0:30 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Louisville, 15 yards | +15% UVA +1.7 pts |
| Q3 0:30 | Personal Foul on Virginia, 15 yards | +2% LOU +0.9 pts |
When it happened
Louisville’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 73%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 6:12 | Louisville fumbled and Virginia recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +9% UVA | LOU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 6:56 | Virginia converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 22% expectedRoughing the Passer on Louisville, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +13% UVA | UVA: Punt |
| 3 | Q3 6:25 | Return touchdown by VirginiaSpecial teams | +26% UVA | UVA: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 0:30 | W. Bettridge made a 46-yard field goalKicks · 62% expected for him, 5 of 9 from 45+ beforeUnsportsmanlike Conduct on Louisville, 15 yardsJudgment callsPersonal Foul on Virginia, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +9% UVA | UVA: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 3:10 | Louisville converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +10% LOU | LOU: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 1:57 | Louisville converted 3rd & 253rd & 4th downs · 13% expected | +16% LOU | LOU: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 1:13 | Louisville was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected | +10% UVA | LOU: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 1:08 | C. Ranvier made a 50-yard field goalKicks · 55% expected for him, 1 of 1 from 45+ before | +13% LOU | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Virginia 64% · Louisville 36%
- Final margin
- Virginia by 3
- Luck in points
- 0.4 for Virginia
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Virginia by 2.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Virginia 19% · Louisville 81% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · 
Virginia · 
Louisville
More from Week 6 2025
- Wake Forest at Virginia Tech WAKE 30–23 · replay 48% for the winner
- Miami at Florida State MIA 28–22 · replay 60% for the winner
- Duke at California DUKE 45–21 · replay 80% for the winner
- Clemson at North Carolina CLEM 38–10 · replay 87% for the winner
- Syracuse at SMU SMU 31–18 · replay 92% for the winner
- Boston College at Pittsburgh PITT 48–7 · replay 99% for the winner
- Campbell at NC State NCSU 56–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Oregon State at App State APP 27–23 · replay 20% for the winner
- Western Kentucky at Delaware WKU 27–24 · replay 23% for the winner
- UNLV at Wyoming UNLV 31–17 · replay 25% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Rice FAU 27–21 · replay 38% for the winner
- Ohio at Ball State BALL 20–14 · replay 38% for the winner