Week 6 2025 · October 4, 2025
Boston College at Pittsburgh, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?
Pittsburgh beat Boston College 48–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Pittsburgh wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Pittsburgh was a 68% favorite.
Final
 Boston College Eagles | 7 |
|---|---|
 Pittsburgh Panthers | 48 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +1 Pittsburgh about even · −1 Boston College
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Boston College wins 0, Pittsburgh wins 10.
- 1 BC 13 PITT 20
- 2 BC 20 PITT 34
- 3 BC 7 PITT 27
- 4 BC 10 PITT 33
- 5 BC 10 PITT 36
- 6 BC 7 PITT 36
- 7 BC 10 PITT 42
- 8 BC 0 PITT 37
- 9 BC 14 PITT 56
- 10 BC 3 PITT 52
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Boston College wins 1% of them, Pittsburgh 99%. The line is what actually happened: Pittsburgh by 41.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Boston College by 17+ | 0.1% |
| Boston College by 9–16 | 0.1% |
| Boston College by 1–8 | 0.5% |
| Level after regulation | 0.2% |
| Pittsburgh by 1–8 | 3.2% |
| Pittsburgh by 9–16 | 7.4% |
| Pittsburgh by 17+ | 88.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- T. Butkowski, 31 yds made · 86% expected
- T. Butkowski, 47 yds made · 60% expected
Penalties: Boston College 5 for 57 yards, Pittsburgh 8 for 70 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:01 | Pass Interference on Boston College, 15 yards | +3% PITT +1.7 pts |
| Q1 4:04 | Holding on Pittsburgh, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% BC +3.8 pts |
| Q1 4:04 | Penalty on Pittsburgh, 15 yards | +2% BC +1.4 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | Offside on Pittsburgh, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% BC +1.2 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | Offside on Pittsburgh, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% BC +1.5 pts |
| Q2 11:31 | False Start on Pittsburgh, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BC +0.6 pts |
| Q2 9:43 | Penalty on Pittsburgh, 10 yards | +1% BC +0.6 pts |
| Q2 9:09 | Penalty on Boston College, 15 yards | +1% PITT +1.1 pts |
| Q2 8:17 | Holding on Pittsburgh, 10 yards | 0% BC +0.9 pts |
| Q2 7:29 | Pass Interference on Boston College, 15 yards | +2% PITT +2.0 pts |
| Q2 5:57 | False Start on Boston College, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% PITT +0.5 pts |
| Q4 10:24 | Holding on Pittsburgh, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% BC +1.3 pts |
| Q4 7:21 | Targeting on Boston College, 7 yards | 0% PITT +0.3 pts |
When it happened
Pittsburgh’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:29 | Pittsburgh converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +4% PITT | PITT: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 9:51 | Pittsburgh converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +3% PITT | PITT: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 9:01 | Pass Interference on Boston College, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +3% PITT | PITT: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 6:32 | Boston College converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +4% BC | BC: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q1 5:04 | Boston College was stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +3% PITT | BC: End of half |
| 6 | Q1 4:04 | Holding on Pittsburgh, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment callsPenalty on Pittsburgh, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +7% BC | BC: End of half |
| 7 | Q1 1:49 | Pittsburgh converted 4th & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +6% PITT | PITT: Field goal |
| 8 | Q2 15:00 | Offside on Pittsburgh, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsOffside on Pittsburgh, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +4% BC | BC: End of half |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Boston College 0% · Pittsburgh 100%
- Final margin
- Pittsburgh by 41
- Luck in points
- 1.1 for Pittsburgh
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Pittsburgh by 39.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Boston College 1% · Pittsburgh 99% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · 
Boston College · 
Pittsburgh
More from Week 6 2025
- Virginia at Louisville UVA 30–27 · replay 19% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Virginia Tech WAKE 30–23 · replay 48% for the winner
- Miami at Florida State MIA 28–22 · replay 60% for the winner
- Duke at California DUKE 45–21 · replay 80% for the winner
- Clemson at North Carolina CLEM 38–10 · replay 87% for the winner
- Syracuse at SMU SMU 31–18 · replay 92% for the winner
- Campbell at NC State NCSU 56–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Oregon State at App State APP 27–23 · replay 20% for the winner
- Western Kentucky at Delaware WKU 27–24 · replay 23% for the winner
- UNLV at Wyoming UNLV 31–17 · replay 25% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Rice FAU 27–21 · replay 38% for the winner
- Ohio at Ball State BALL 20–14 · replay 38% for the winner